Sunday, November 2, 2014

California Proposition 2 and Ballot Review.

Could this be the greatest political bait and switch? November 4th is now around the corner . It might be if Gov . Jerry Brown has his way . I am talking about his Proposition 2 " rainy day fund" which is known as SB 858. Right now Public School Business Administrators are scrambling on how to deal with it if it passes . Many school districts are already sending out resolutions for it's "repeal" many of them are claiming that (1)>  " The Minimum reserve level required by SB 858 would leave many school districts with only a few days of cash flow on hand which is about 10 days." The focus on education and public safety ignores one controversy surrounding the reserve measure – a bill passed this year capping the amount of money school districts may set aside for economic uncertainties if state reserves reach certain thresholds. The bill was backed by California teachers unions and opposed by school administrators. California voters approved a rainy-day fund in 2004, but the recession hit soon after the state started contributing to it. And the fund was too small to solve the financial problems created by one of the biggest budget dysfunctions the state has: a tendency to spend one-time revenues on ongoing projects.Under Prop. 2, the state would set aside 1.5 percent of the general fund each year to put into the rainy-day fund — which is half of the current requirement. However, the fund would also capture capital gains — the taxable profits earned from the sale of investments such as stock or real estate. The dotted line I am seeing here is a money grab in disguise , it's another way to shift funds out of one pot : Education .  The ad's for Prop 2 can be misleading In the radio ad,“Prop. 2 creates a rainy day fund so we have a financial reserve to prevent cuts to schools and public safety when the revenues run dry.” *** The terms "prevents cuts to schools" is contrary to the other term that will require School Districts to spending  down their reserves,  that is  a form of cutting This year's measure comes loaded with stricter rules intended to ensure its goals are reached. First, 1.5% of general fund revenues would be set aside every year, which is roughly $1.6 billion at the current size of the state budget. Half the money would be deposited in the rainy-day fund, and the other half would be used to pay down debts and cover long-term costs such as public pensions.November ballot measure has drawn angry complaints from an unlikely group: local school officials.They argue that the measure is too complex and will have a dubious effect on education funding. And they're furious about a bill linked to the measure that would trigger a cap on how much money school districts could keep in their reserve funds."The cap is fiscally irresponsible," said Josephine Lucey, president of the California School Boards Association. Many districts, especially small ones, need to maintain large reserves to weather the state's fluctuating funding and to handle unexpected expenses such as emergency repairs, she said. ON the other hand the Teacher Union has a different opinion that "A lot of districts in California were hoarding money," even when the economy improved, said Eric Heins, vice president of the California Teachers Association. "When they hold obscenely large reserves like that, it's affecting children's education. It's affecting our members." Statewide school organizations of administrators and business officials oppose the measure. But as of Sept. 30 no funds had been raised to campaign against Proposition 2.

NOVEMBER 4th in Review.
Here is a rundown from sources regarding  the Tuesday November 4th polls . I am assuming this , although my views are (3)>  Neel Kashari to lose , but I support him over Jerry Brown .
Will Kashkari beat GOP turnout? Although actual voter registration is 43% Democrat, 28% Republican, 23% no party preference (NPP) and 5% other, the Field Poll’s survey sample — based on the actual voter file and expected turnout in a low-interest election — calculates an electorate that is 43% Democrat, 34% Republican and 23% NPP and other.Nevertheless, Brown leads Kashkari 54-33% — just beating the all-important Calbuzz line – with broad appeal across race, age, gender, region and ideology.
Other's on the Ballot: 
Kashkari is drawing just 76% of Republicans and 73% of conservatives while Brown is supported by 83% of Democrats and 90% of liberals. In the middle, Brown beats Kashkari 59-22% among NPP voters and 55-25% among moderates.
In other races down the ballot, the Field Poll finds:
Lieutenant Governor: Gavin Newsom (D) over Ron Nehring (R) 47-37%
Attorney General: Kamala Harris (D) over Ronald Gold (R) 49-36%
Secretary of State: Alex Padilla (D) over Pete Peterson (R) 44-37%
Controller: Betty Yee (D) over Ashley Swearengin (R) 44-36%
Treasurer: John Chiang (D) over Greg Conlin (R) 46-35%
Insurance Commissioner: Dave Jones (D) over Ted Gaines (R) 45-33%
Superintendent of Public Instruction – a non-partisan race – in which Tom Torlakson and Marshall Tuck are tied at 28%, with 44% undecided. Both candidates are Democrats but eschewing party labels.
Torlakson leads by 7% among white non-Hispanic voters while Tuck is preferred by Latino, black and Asian voters. But Torlakson is favored by liberals while Tuck is leading among conservatives.
Propositions : 
The Field Poll also reported that while Brown’s pet project – Proposition 1 (water bonds) – leading handily and other polls have show Brown’s Proposition 2 (rainy day fund) also ahead, Proposition 45 (giving the insurance commissioner controlling review of health insurance rate changes, and Proposition 46 (increasing malpractice awards and drug testing doctors) both are headed to defeat.The Field Poll’s finding on Prop. 45 – 42% no to 30% yes – is similar to the finding from the Public Policy Institute of California, which had it 46-39% no. But it differed from a poll put out by the Hoover Institution (done by YouGov) which had Prop. 45 leading 42-30%.
Rep. Mike Honda still had almost $1 million banked for his re-election campaign at September's end while Democratic challenger Ro Khanna was almost out of money, new Federal Election Commission reports show. Like Kashkari ,  (4)> Khanna is a poor "republican" who can't seem to beat the Democratic spending machine. According to Binder’s poll, the Khanna-Honda race is – against the odds — up for grabs, with Khanna pulling 33% plus 5% of leaners and Honda drawing 34% and 4% of leaners. That leaves about one-fourth of the voters – 24% — undecided and up for grabs with less than three weeks to go. Khanna, a corporate Democrat eager to cut Social Security and Medicare benefits to lower the tax rates for his wealthy supporters, sounds like a Republican. And Republicans and conservative pseudo-Democrats have financed his jihad against progressive icon Mike Honda in the Silicon Valley. Plenty of rich Silicon Valley tycoons with far too much money are behind Khanna’s relentless bid for office. Many of the companies, like Google and Facebook, who have helped the NSA and CIA with unconstitutional domestic spying against their customers, are Khanna’s biggest contributors. Google, in fact, is his biggest single donor.Big money has flowed into his campaign from the Wall Street banksters as well, particularly from Morgan Stanley, venture capitalists Kleiner, Perkins, Goldman Sachs, Pershing Square Capital Management, US Venture Partners, Artiman Ventures, Sutter Hill Ventures and Cambrian Ventures. 
*** Several education groups are remaining neutral on Prop. 2 because of the cap on how much school districts can set aside in their own reserves. “It’s fiscally irresponsible and goes against the grain of everything the governor has said,” said Katherine Welch, director of the parent advocacy group Educate Our State in San Francisco, which is leading the opposition to Prop. 2. (2)>  The bill specified that if the state deposits even a penny into the education reserve that would be created by Proposition 2, the cap would be slapped on school districts' reserves. Surplus funds would have to be spent. Proposition 2 puts a 6% cap on school district reserves while the state aims for a 10% reserve. This addition of a 6% cap on school district reserves is a power play by the teacher's union to put pressure on the school district to give teachers raises. however, in the past the California legislature has been very tardy about appropriating money for the school, and thereby not allowing the school districts to plan properly. The school district may have to again borrow money and put more pressure on the district.Such a law may in the end not only hurt the children but also the teachers when the district runs out of money because of this corrupt law. For sure, the teacher's union will then take the  blame with the school districts for the fiasco it has help create if it happens.(3)> Which leads back to Kashkari’s fundamental problem: he’s a Republican in a state where the GOP brand is dog meat. And he’s running against a governor who is widely seen as doing a good job at guiding state government and moderating the liberal leanings of the Legislature . Only 29% of his backers said “I’m mostly voting for Neel Kashkari” while 69% (including 70% of Republicans and 73% of conservatives) said “I’m mostly voting against Jerry Brown.”(4)> latest poll shows that Congressman Honda is the overwhelming choice of voters in the 17th Congressional District. Ro Khanna’s campaign is clearly getting desperate, which is reflected in the barrage of attack mailers funded by Khanna’s Republican donors distorting Congressman Honda’s record of delivering for his district

1 comment: