Saturday, November 24, 2018

Climate report OVERVIEW.

Well here it is . The long awaited (1)>>US  CLIMATE REPORT . It was released . The interesting thing I can only point out [ as serious as presumptuous warning] & this report says that  "would be highly crippling to U.S. economic growth," . I wrote about this in 2017 regarding the fuss , Trump denials . BUT hay its 2018 nothing has changed . For the most part of it we have vary warm summers , what they call Indian summers were last year it reached 108F where I lived , (1.2)>>it was brutal , but it not exactly abnormal. The Problem with global warming  is that while temps have been going up in theory , during the winters the eastern parts of the United States was being hit with with an extreme sub Arctic polar vortex that send blizzard freezing temperatures that contradicts the predicted models of global warming .  While the extreme weather we been having is not a new phenomenon.   The world’s leading climate scientists have warned there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people. For America the new [0ld] warning is obvious . Written long before the deadly fires in California this month and Hurricanes Florence and Michael raked the East Coast and Florida, the National
Climate Assessment says warming-charged extremes "have already become more frequent, intense, widespread or of long duration."The federal report says the last few years have smashed records for damaging weather in the U.S., costing nearly $400 billion since 2015. "Warmer and drier conditions have contributed to an increase in large forest fires in the western United States and interior Alaska," according to the report.Coming from the US Global Change Research Program, a team of 13 federal agencies, theFourth National Climate Assessment was put together with the help of 1,000 people, including 300 leading scientists, roughly half from outside the government. The report frequently contradicts President Donald Trump, who took to Twitter on Wednesday night to again express his doubts about climate change, using the especially cold Thanksgiving forecast as an example."Brutal and Extended Cold Blast could shatter (2)>>ALL RECORDS - Whatever happened to Global Warming?" the president tweeted. A White House spokeswoman, however, said the assessment was “largely based on the most extreme scenario, which contradicts long-established trends by assuming that, despite strong economic growth that would increase greenhouse gas emissions, there would be limited technology and innovation, and a rapidly expanding population.” Republican Party have become aware that denying the existence of global warming makes them look like idiots. Changes in climate have become obvious, not just to
scientists, but to ordinary people — they can be directly measured, with such exotic instruments as a “thermometer.” Majorities of every group except the most conservative Republicans (who will trust their media over their lying eyes) believe it is happening. Denying visible, tangible reality is a dicey business, even for the modern US right. It makes the party look like a death cult. So Republican climate-communication strategy has undergone something of an adjustment recently to accept some of the views [ see this survey https://bit.ly/2K4uGvs ] Yet there’s scant reason to hope major change will come any time soon to a hopelessly polarized Congress. America should be leading the way taking a balance to  find a global solution to climate  [ for example air pollution , water contamination ] for our fragile planet .


NOTES AND COMMENTS :
 You might Like to RE - READ what I wrote about "Climate Change"before . See the following Link , best archived  [ https://bit.ly/2S8bAbV ] 

(1)>>US  CLIMATE REPORT The US National Climate change assessment,  This 1,600-page report details the climate and economic impacts U.S. residents will see if drastic action is not taken to address climate change."The impacts of global climate change are already being felt in the United States and are projected to intensify in the future," the researchers say.The last few years have smashed records for damaging weather in the United States, costing nearly $400 billion since 2015. In a worst-case scenario, the researchers say, climate change could deliver a 10 percent hit to the nation's GDP by the end of the century. (1.2)>>it was brutal , but it not exactly abnormal. There’s a school of thought that says the slightest deviation from the most vehement, table-banging language in support of the climate cause is tantamount to betrayal. The new normal is a catchy phrase, and one you’ve probably heard before . the cliche has shown up after disastrous wildfires, hurricanes, heatwaves, and drought. The prognosticators use averages over a period of time, usually 30 years, to describe “normal”. Misuse of the term normal. The last 1 million years the Earth has been in a grips of an Ice Age at intervals of time My comparison using November and late frost was meant to imply that this interglacial has gone on several thousand years too long, with respect to previous interglacials. Yes we had "warming " periods about 5000 years ago . I think the Earth and its climate has been changing , yes its NORMAL . The ONLY fact we should fight pollution and "ruining the Earth" that is more challenging than the climate . (2)>>ALL RECORDS - Whatever happened to Global Warming?. Science achieves a consensus when scientists stop arguing.  When a question is first asked – like ‘what would happen if we put a load more CO2 in the atmosphere?’ – there may be many hypotheses about cause and effect. Over a period of time, each idea is tested and retested – the processes of the scientific method – because all scientists know that reputation and kudos go to those who find the right answer (and everyone else becomes an irrelevant footnote in the history of science).  Nearly all hypotheses will fall by the wayside during this testing period, because only one is going to answer the question properly, without leaving all kinds of odd dangling bits that don’t quite add up. Bad theories are usually rather untidy. The fact that there are so many Academies of Science endorsing the global warming position is probably the strongest argument for supporting it. The question to ask is how mature is this field? If the answer is 'very mature' then this type of support has high credibility. If the answer is 'immature' then it's significance is considerably less. Here is a link to US Senate Committee on the Environment that lists in detail 400 scientists who disagree with the anthropomorphic global warming hypothesis: http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport That there are so many when we repeatedly hear on the news and radio that the actual number of dissenters is 'miniscule' will have the tendency to turn believers into sceptics. I would also feel more confident if the 'hockey stick' graphics that predict rapid change and global catastrophe would not all be linked back to a small handful of researchers and students who work together and presumably have the same preconceptions and modus operandi. If there are no 'hockey sticks' then the small increase in global temperature over the last century does not statistically look different from what one would expect from natural variation.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Nancy Pelosi's Revenge & Midterm election FRAUD !

Nancy Pelosi's Revenge. (1)>>The California Democrat has been in Congress for three decades, spending half of that time as party's top House official. To Republicans, she is a useful bogeyman, the wealthy San Francisco liberal forever plotting to raise your taxes. More recently, her own party's ascendant left has taken aim. She’s the Republicans’ whipping gal — but President Trump said Saturday that he endorses Nancy Pelosi wholeheartedly as House speaker.“I can get Nancy Pelosi as many votes as she wants in order for her to be Speaker of the House,” Trump tweeted. “She deserves this victory, she has earned it,” he tweeted. “But there are those in her party who are trying to take it away. She will win!”He later called her “tough” and “smart,” gushing to reporters, “I like her, can you believe it?” IS THAT JUST CRAZY OR NO ??? But the President's curious tactics, and perishing thirst for some deal, any deal, shouldn't obscure the quietly efficient work of his partisan opponents. (1.1)>>AS SPEAKER of the HOUSE it puts Nancy 3rd to the succession to the Presidency of the United States .  She had the votes to make history in 2007 when she became speaker of the House, not only becoming the first woman to hold that title but in the process, rising higher in U.S. electoral politics—and closer in the line of presidential succession—than any woman before or since.   She beat Hillary Clinton to the highest position in the nation , even if  she is back. Regardless of how many reputable pollsters and number crunchers project the speaker of the House’s gavel is going to Nancy Pelosi and Democrats gaining seats in the Senate, perhaps even enough to gain the majority there. We all know the Democrats won back the majority in the House of Representatives so now they've got a real opportunity to infuse the house with some bold new leadership that is relentlessly determined to champion progressive ideals and obstruct Trump's decimation its (2)>>Deja Vu again ! Ssixteen House Democrats have signed their names to a letter released Monday opposing House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in her bid to become the next speaker of the House. The letter from Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-NY) and (3)>>15 other Democratic members was released on Monday, after a week of intense speculation about whether it would come out.“We promised to change the status quo and we intend to deliver on that promise,” the group wrote. “Therefore, we are committed to voting for new leadership in both our Caucus meeting and on the House floor.” However remember Deja Vu in action.  If it seems like we’ve been here before, it’s because we have. Keep in mind with Pelosi there packs some nasty politics that are ahead . She is one of those & The problem for Democratic strategists -- of which Pelosi is at the top of the heap --For the base, their hatred of Trump is so pure that there is nothing negative for or about him that they wouldn't be willing to countenance. For Democratic leaders, talk of impeachment hands Republicans a ready-made issue -- a way to caricature Pelosi and her caucus as radical leftists blinded by partisan hatred. Yes Government shutdowns will return . 

Midterm election FRAUD !

a day before the election MSNBC
gave way to suspicions
that our elections
are indeed a fraud .
Mishandled ballots? Incomplete vote count? November 6th all the polls closed at 8 p.m. as we assumed that your vote was counted .Well not really I don't REALLY BELIEVE any vote was every ballot was counted , to accept the notion that by 8 p.m. the polls close we know the "results" .US President Donald Trump responded to the news by accusing Democrats of trying to "steal" the elections. So before we mention any other state here in America , lets mention Florida. MSNBC inadvertently aired what looked like live results of the heated gubernatorial election in Florida ― a day before the actual voting. MSNBC puts Florida Governor race votetotal graphic on screen a wee bit early and if you look right here this is dated November 5th okay the midterms were on November 6th and there's a couple things I want to point out I want to point out the fact that the whole country the race was really close okay and this was before the midterms they knew it was gonna be really close and then their article says it's kind of goofed that the folks who scream about fake news likely will scream about MSNBC this evening they briefly put a graphic on screen that showed vote counts for Florida race you know the one being held tomorrow it's the kind of goof that the folks who scream about fake news likely will scream . BUT its silent , knowing the outcome of the election ahead of time is precisely why our our elections are a fraud.   Amazing that Gillum’s winning, even though (4)>>POLLS AREN’T EVEN NEAR BEING CLOSED YET. Note that they have specific numbers and everything. 99% in. You know. Chris Hayes quickly tried to clarify. “Quick clarification here,” he said. “Just want to say, earlier this hour, uh, we showed a graphic of the Florida gubernatorial race. May have caught your eye because our system had inadvertently populated some test numbers. Obviously, we do not yet have any vote totals here, the night before the election. That was a misfire. Don’t worry. I was pretty confused when I saw it up there, to see it myself.” To point out the fact that the whole country the race was really close okay and this was before the midterms they knew it was gonna be really , so was MSNBC using some predictive software to create a likely outcome? The fictional tally, with 99 percent of the votes counted, left Democrat Andrew Gillum leading Republican Ron DeSantis by 0.6 percentage points. This just Florida . How about voter suppression ? Come to the state of Georgia, Gwinnett County, located northeast of Atlanta, now faces two federal lawsuits and accusations from voting rights activists who say the rejections disproportionately affect minority voters, particularly Asian Americans and African Americans.The county has rejected 595 absentee ballots, which account for more than a third of the total absentee-ballot rejections in the state, even though Gwinnett County accounts for only about 6% of absentee ballots submitted in Georgia, according to state data analyzed by CNN . More than 300 of the rejected ballots belonged to African Americans and Asian Americans. [ for a state by state comparison see : https://bit.ly/2OVZ3WY ] Notwithstanding that absentee ballots are not counted either, Jonathan Lai of the Inquirer reported this week that in  statewide elections, thousands of absentee ballots are not being counted because they arrive past the deadline.  Even COUNTING ALL THE VOTES for an honest talley requires almost a few weeks , not on a single evening . Even if it is super close, we can see what happens: counting errors make more of a difference than individual votes. Recounts in 2000 swung the vote count by hundreds of votes, not by handfulls. (From 1278 to 900 to 537). When the election really matters, recounts will happen.


comedian George Carlin had a lot to say about the current political system, that we call “democracy” and how it really works, when he was still alive.
….I have solved this political dilemma in a very direct way: I don’t vote. On Election Day, I stay home. I firmly believe that if you vote, you have no right to complain.
Now, some people like to twist that around. They say, “If you don’t vote, you have no right to complain”, but where’s the logic in that? If you vote, and you elect dishonest, incompetent politicians, and they get into office and screw everything up, you are responsible for what they have done. You voted them in. You caused the problem. You have no right to complain.
I, on the other hand, who did not vote — who did not even leave the house on Election Day — am in no way responsible for that these politicians have done and have every right to complain about the mess that you created. 


NOTES AND COMMENTS:
(1)>>The California Democrat has been in Congress for three decades . She has said that if Hillary Clinton had won the presidency, she was prepared to retire—knowing both that the legislative legacy she shared with Barack Obama would be safe and that a woman would have not just a seat at the leadership table, but the most powerful one.    (1.1)>>AS SPEAKER of the HOUSE. IN the 3 decades of Pelosi the position of the Speaker of the House has been a roller coster ride four different Republicans have served as speaker of the House: the kooky Newt Gingrich, now an unofficial Trump adviser; the disgraced Dennis Hastert, who admitted to child molestation and pleaded guilty to bank fraud charges three years ago; the furious John Boehner, who recently resurfaced as an advocate for marijuana legalization; and, currently, the young wonk Paul Ryan, who will retire from Congress at the end of this term. These four men all represent different priorities within the GOP agenda. They share credit and blame for the party’s recent legislative record. In their differing priorities and temperaments, they represent various characterizations of the Republican agenda.There’s only one Democrat who, as House speaker, has embodied the liberal agenda. That’s Pelosi,her first time as Speaker was nothing but a failure .  (2)>>Deja Vu again ! Donald Trump is not so stupid why he congratulated Pelosi , he knows that she brought the house down for Obama , was ousted by Paul Ryan in 2010. As the House Democratic leader since 2005, Pelosi is unpopular (her approval rating was 29% in a national Quinnipiac University poll in February) and extremely well known (83% of voters in the Quinnipiac survey knew who she was). That twofer of familiarity and voter fatigue is why the demonization of Pelosi remains a staple of Republican attack ads. In 2009, Pelosi persuaded deficit-wary Blue Dog Democrats to back Barack Obama’s stimulus package, and it passed without a single Republican vote. The following year, when Rahm Emanuel, then the White House chief of staff, suggested scaling back health-care reform after the Democrats’ surprise Senate loss in Massachusetts, Pelosi insisted that Obama maintain his goal of universal coverage. She enraged her pro-choice allies by allowing a vote on an amendment prohibiting women insured through the law’s health-care exchanges from receiving government-subsidized abortions. But that gave antiabortion Democrats cover to support the bill, which passed with nary a Republican vote.(3)>>15 other Democratic members was released on Monday.   Still, Pelosi, who made history as the first female speaker of the House, is facing an open rebellion from a bloc of 16 Democratic lawmakers who signed a letter calling for a change in the “status quo” of the party’s leadership. And at least one Democrat – Ohio Rep. Marcia Fudge, a former chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus – was mulling a challenge for the top spot.(4)>>POLLS AREN’T EVEN NEAR BEING CLOSED YET.   Like I have  BEEN saying . ITs not possible  that on a single NIGHT THAT EVERY BALLOT IS COUNTED . Its IMPOSSIBLE when your dealing with MILLIONS of voters [ estimates vary on how many people voted , in 2016 While election officials are still tabulating ballots, the 126 million votes already counted means about 55% of voting age citizens cast ballots . The MARGIN of ERROR is vary high. ] Many of these mail-in ballots were ether dropped off at polling places on Tuesday or, if they were postmarked by Election Day, are still making their way through the U.S. Postal Service. Of the 202,000 mail-in ballots sent to voters, only 96,622 mail-in ballots were returned early enough to be counted on Election Day. Now suppose we had perfect vote counting systems, with zero measurement error, and the election comes down to a single vote. Now, surely, your vote matters, right? Well, which one of the millions of votes on the winning side gets credit for the win? Every single person cast a vote, so the credit perhaps should be shared across all of the millions of voters. 

Sunday, November 18, 2018

California Burning PART 2.


Disclaimer . Again my condolences go out to all the people devastated in ALL THE FIRES north and South of California . While there could be 1000 deaths [ still unaccounted or missing ], just who or what caused the "fires" just can't be climate change alone . The first culprit would be the utility company PG&E , many would accuse the company of gross negligence . If any thing adds up conspiracy buffs . Crazy and way too liberal (1)>>Gov. Jerry Brown signed a bill Friday to help Pacific Gas and Electric Co. withstand the costs of last year’s devastating wildfires, in part by passing some of those costs on to customers. Lawmakers said SB901 will help ease concerns that billions of dollars in potential  (2)>>liability from the fires in the North Bay and elsewhere could push PG&E into bankruptcy. The bill also directs more money to clearing dead trees from forests and toughens financial penalties against utilities that violate state safety rules. A Few months
Gov. Brown protects PG&E .
and signs a rate hike bill.
BIG TIME SCAM!!!
back I wrote pretty much about what I thought was the cause of the fires , not just besides arson , laser weapons [ see https://goo.gl/msZWkg ] Not trying to build upon the tragedy of paranoia . BUT Gov. Brown just saved the utility company from serious liability from being broken apart while PG&E stocks plunge . At some point , I hope that the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT will investigate the exact causes. California fire investigators have blamed PG&E’s equipment for starting at least 16 of the fires that erupted during a fierce windstorm on Oct. 8. And in 11 of those instances, investigators found evidence the company broke state safety laws. (3)>>I kinda never accepting the "official" story that dry brush or something caught a spark that started it . They been saying that about the 11 others , the fires are getting bigger and bigger .  While 
California is on fire,  the news  mainstream media,  they have actually covered they just can't bring themselves to say the words like climate change now instead the reports are like there were fires and they were bad enough and what caused them . Donald Trump says they were caused by forests mismanagement , perhaps he is right . Who knows ? California has been in a drought for 20 years , in those 20 years we have had Gov. Jerry Brown serve nearly 4 terms . WE never had fires in this magnitude , the state of California as (3.1)>>YOU MAY BE AWARE ! has had a skid -dish budget , has been axing over the years forest management . Its so bad that California is using prison slave labor to fight the fires .  oh really is there anything unusual about those firefighters the ones all in line rushing in to risk their lives to save ours perhaps the fact that those are prisoners locked away in (4)>>California's correctional system yes they volunteered for that job but many of them see no way out of the misery and hardship of prison other than to volunteer for fire duty so it's kind of the inmates are doing this for just on dollar an hour one dollar an hour they get paid less than the amount of money you're willing to bend down to pick up for . So if you say THANK YOU FIREFIGHTERS  & PLEASE THANK YOUR PRISONERS AT WORK! 

Just WHO IS TO BLAME ???
The California fires stretch the definition of “natural disaster” because human activities have exacerbated their likelihood, their extent, and their damage. Deliberate decisions and unintended consequences of urban development over decades have turned many parts of the state into a tinderbox.  Shifting population means more chances for ignitions, with “people moving into flammable places and literally building homes in the line of fire" humans cause 84 percent of wildfires, and lightning causes the rest.Malfunctioning equipment and downed power lines are behind many blazes, and authorities are trying to learn if equipment failures by utility companies sparked the two large California blazes. Careless campers are responsible for some fires  This year’s blazes particularly stand out because of how close they are to suburbs and major cities. California Gov. Jerry Brown, now seeking a “major disaster declaration” from the White House to bolster the emergency response to three catastrophic wildfires, warned Sunday that those who deny climate change “are definitely contributing to the tragedy” of what he predicted could be years of damaging firestorms due to rising temperatures and increased drought conditions in his state. While the Governor's explanation about the drought is factual to a degree of argument , what he did not say is that California has over the decades of having budget fiasco's has severally cut emergency response forest management , which is at the center of the problem .   IN 2009 it was the big pivotal year of forest management cuts But even with federal assistance, the California fiscal crisis — and in particular 2009 July's $1.9 billion raid on local government finances to help balance the state budget — could threaten the system of mutual aid between fire departments across the state. For example, several fire departments in northern California went south to help out with the Angeles National Forest blaze. As the fire season continues, however, budget cutbacks may force some local fire departments to stop participating in mutual aid.  While Donald Trump has gotten a bad rap for tweeting , blaming California . I can only say that President Trump is not wrong here . For a Green - Environmental state like California it has gone Brown alright .


NOTES AND COMMENTS :

(1)>>Gov. Jerry Brown signed a bill Friday . It would let PG&E use a type of state-authorized bond to pay off the more than 200 lawsuits filed against the company over the fires. PG&E’s customers would pay off those bonds bit by bit on their monthly bills, provided that regulators with the California Public Utilities Commission determine that the company acted reasonably in maintaining its equipment before the fires. In cases where the commission determines the utility did not act reasonably, PG&E and its shareholders would have to cover the cost.  (2)>>liability from the fires.  More than 200 lawsuits have been filed against the San Francisco company blaming it for the Wine Country fires, and estimates of PG&E’s potential liability reach $17 billion. The company had about $840 million in liability insurance when the flames broke out. It is now finalizing $1 billion to $1.5 billion of coverage, at a cost of about $350 million. (3)>>I kinda never accepting the "official" story .  Experts suggest many causes for the fires, from population growth to equipment failures to climate change.humans cause 84 percent of wildfires, and lightning causes the rest. Malfunctioning equipment and downed power lines are behind many blazes, and authorities are trying to learn if equipment failures by utility companies sparked the two large California blazes. Careless campers are responsible for some fires. Not to mention possible arson .  (3.1)>>YOU MAY BE AWARE ! has had a skid- dish budget. Does any one remember when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger recently exercised his line-item veto power to completely eliminate the state Dept. of Fish and Game’s (DFG’s) budget for inspecting logging in vast timber-producing regions of California.    As one outraged citizen wrote in a letter to the editor of Santa Rosa’s Press Democrat soon after the veto, “It only took a single stroke of a pen for the Terminator to ax the Department of Fish and Game's Timber Harvest Plan (THP) review program from the state budget… How will the remaining three or four employees be able to review plans as required by law?”On-the-ground timber harvest inspections are one of the ways the state protects the natural resources of its public and private forests. Perhaps not coincidentally, the state’s largest clearcutter, as well as a major campaign contributor to Schwarzenegger, Sierra Pacific Industries will be the budget cut's biggest beneficiary came down on forestry management since then the budget on  forestry management has been poor.   (4)>>California's correctional system yes they volunteered for that job .  Before you say "our brave firefighters" think just who ?  About 200 prisoners in California’s Conservation Camp program are fighting the fires alongside civilian employees, earning just $1.45 a day for their work. Their pay as workers is a fraction of minimum wage. The hazard to their lives is real, as evidenced by a death toll that has climbed steadily. The prisoners battling the fires in California deserve real wages. And their rights as workers lead us to larger issues of prison labor, fires or not. More than 1,000 inmate firefighters required hospital care between June 2013 and August 2018, according to data obtained by TIME through FOIA requests. They are more than four times as likely, per capita, to incur object-induced injuries, such as cuts, bruises, dislocations and fractures, compared with professional firefighters working on the same fires. Inmates were also more than eight times as likely to be injured after inhaling smoke and particulates compared with other firefighters.

Monday, November 12, 2018

The Day (day's) after the Midterm Elections 2018.

2018 midterms Geo- Political
map . This map says a lot
about the future of 2020
election . The nation
i
WE Americans are never going to be satisfied . The Day (day's) after the Midterm Elections 2018. (1)>>Waking up to the stark reality that our two party system is a failure . While voters have changed who they voted for . A Few years back the election that swept Barack Obama into the Oval office was a voter rebellion against the Bush era in 2008 . Public dissatisfaction with government was an all time high . The Obama win was historic for America , in an almost celebrity status , there were hopes that as the first African American as President Obama would deliver the necessity of the American dream. In 2008 it had created (2)>> the first BLUE WAVE. When Obama failed the voters in 2010 they flipped, put in a majority of Republicans who are now control congress . The election of Donald Trump can be seen in 2016 as a voter backlash , while Hillary Clinton was most probably more qualified, she lost to Trump due to "internal" factors rather than a act of meddling by Russians . The Republicans under Trump became the alt-right , not just the conservative right . (3)>>The populism , putting America fist was not a bad idea . Making America great means a lot more than spewing angry rhetoric , tweeting sarcasm . Donald Trump is a showman he knows how to give great scripted speeches , rallies the crowed . (4)>>Donald Trump's far right moves are vary suspicious . Over the two years he has kept his "promises" to basically to undo the Obama era .The Democrats won the House and the Republicans strengthened their lead in the Senate. How will this affect the nation when those new congresspeople get into office?The Democratic victory would also stonewall much of Trump’s agenda. Republicans had vowed to pursue further tax cuts and changes to popular government programs, such as Medicare, Medicaid and social security. They also pledged to repeal and replace Barack Obama’s healthcare law, a years-long quest that will assuredly fail with Democrats now holding one of the chambers. What will the 2020 map look like? Following the midterms, media attention will quickly begin to look forward to the 2020 Election. What can Democrats learn by looking at the map of results from yesterday, and how can this help them prepare to succeed in 2020? While Tuesday night was not a humiliation for Trump or the Republicans. They worked hard to hold on to control of the Senate. They also did enough to see off challenges from progressive would-be governors such as Stacey Abrams in Georgia and Andrew Gillum in Florida. One could also argue it’s a blue wave based on (5)>>how historic some of the Democrats’ wins were. There will be a record number of women in Congress next year. The House could have close to 100 women, most of them Democrats who decided to run for public office in response to Trump’s election. The new Democratic caucus will include the first Native American women, the first Muslim women and the youngest woman, who is also Latina, ever elected to Congress. While the Democrats took the
If this map don't change by 2020
Donald Trump might
win a second term.
house there remains a problem. If you look at the geo-political map there is not enough of the "blue".  Here is another problem, if this were a the (6)>>2020 Presidential election held now & Donald Trump were to face off a hypothetical match  between Oprah Winfrey [ not if she will run] but all this red indicates in this midterms that the President Trump will win a second term . This map says a great deal . So even if the Democrats take back the House as they did . It will not change this map .  Unless more states go "blue" , there is a great shift starting now , were likely to see the same fiasco of the 2016 election . No doubt, Democrats who will now chair all House committees will do everything possible to make Trump's life difficult. The Democrats are more likely to make running the nation just as bad as the Republicans . If Republican obstructionism was key in wracking the Obama policy . WE can expect government gridlock to boil over in 2019 . For one thing, Trump would remain able to block Democratic initiatives — just as they could stop his plans for more tax cuts and a 5 percent cut to Cabinet department budgets. What instead would likely result is continued gridlock — perhaps even more entrenched than what exists now in Washington. The increased Republican majority in the Senate, however, will make it easier for Trump to continue to appoint judges and remake the nation’s judiciary branch in a more conservative mold.   Arrayed against a stout Republican majority in the Senate, a Democratic House majority couldn't do much to reorder the economy, which typically hinges more on the willingness of consumers and businesses to spend and on the state of the global economy than on government policy priorities.  The hostile rhetoric makes it unlikely that Democrats and Republicans would join to pass any meaningful legislation for the economy, such as for infrastructure rebuilding. Like the (7)>>Democrats , the Republican party are both failures , they are failing Americans .



NOTES AND COMMENTS:

(1)>>Waking up to the stark reality that our two party system is a failure . If the midterm elections in America were a movie, they’d be a psychological horror fetish flick. A hogtied electorate is approached by two parties, each promising freedom if only the bound electorate will pledge complete loyalty. One glance at the wrong “saviour” and the deal is off. Sadly the twist is that, in the end, neither party frees the captive.The US is a one-party nation: The Plutocrat Party. It has a left-wing of the socially liberal and a right wing of the socially reactionary but when it comes to money, taxes and power it is the same party whose only allegiance is to the plutocrats and the megacorporations. Until the US voters understand this, they will continue to be exploited and reduced to peonage as the Plutocrat Party destroys the middle class. That this realization will occur is unlikely, however, and the imperial republic of the United States will continue its downward spiral into a banana republic with a ruling junta of plutocrats, financiers and megacorporation CEOs.America is not the land of the free, it is the land of the enslaved masses, who are coopted into a designed system of taxation and commerce set up to serve the interests of a ruling plutocracy.. It doesn't matter who you vote for.. Until people recognize this and start thinking about a sustainable future, the outlook is bleak.(2)>> the first BLUE WAVE.In 2008 . Barack Obama is the first president-elect in 32 years to receive a Congress under the firm control of his party, a powerful political gift that bodes well for the enactment of an expansive Democratic agenda. Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Barack Obama was inaugurated president, the House of Representatives was made up of 257 Democrats and 178 Republicans. There is no question that Democrats had total control in the House from 2009-2011. Even with numerous “blue-dog” (allegedly fiscally conservative) Democrats often voting with Republicans.....Speaker Pelosi had little difficulty passing legislation in the House. The House does not have the pernicious filibuster rule which the Senate uses. A majority vote in the House is all that’s necessary to pass legislation, except in rare occurrences (treaty ratification, overriding a presidential veto).An aside....it was during this time that Obama’s “stimulus” was passed. No Republicans in the House voted for the stimulus. However, in the Senate.....and because Democrats didn’t have “total control” of that chamber.....three Republicans.....Snowe, Collins and Specter, voted to break a filibuster guaranteeing it’s passage. Then in April, 2009, Republican Senator Arlen Specter became a Democrat. Kennedy was still at home, dying, and Al Franken was still not seated. Score in April, 2009....Democratic votes 58. The truth....then....is this: Democrats had “total control” of the House of Representatives from 2009-2011, 2 full years. Democrats, and therefore, Obama, had “total control” of the Senate from September 24, 2009 until February 4, 2010. A grand total of 4 months. So what exactly was done ? The Congress was so shackled trying to pass the  Affordable Care Act which took up everything the government was supposed to do , it began  a decade of new gridlock . By 2014 voters had enough and sent Obama a clear message ( Like they did to Trump now .Lol!) by voting again the Republicans ! (3)>>The populism , putting America fist was not a bad idea . Putting America first can mean many things . I think that putting the People ahead of politics is better . RESTORING THE AMERICAN DREAM as it fades away with the burden of high taxation , un-affordability of our living standards have not kept up inflation . Today, after the financial crisis, the shrinking of the middle class, the partisan warfare can be overcomed It is time for a new party who honestly represents the needs of working American men and women. (4)>>Donald Trump's far right moves are vary suspicious . When I first heard that Donald Trump was a "Republican " I was laughing really . He was embraced by the Evangelicals to the extant that they forgave his past sins . Now that Republicans have allowed themselves to be formed into the personal party of Donald Trump, forget the TEA PARTY . Trump has energized a large segment who are on the far right of the spectrum. The Democrats have not unified their beliefs regarding where they should be positioned on the left of the spectrum. Hopefully, most Americans reside somewhere close to the middle and democracy will prevail. (5)>>how historic some of the Democrats’ wins were.   Obviously the Democrats have more diversity  of women and ethnic representation that appeals to what we call minorities . The Republican base is vary weak on diversity.    Democrats may be fielding a more racially diverse slate of candidates than ever before, and they acknowledge they are more dependent on nonwhite voters to deliver their victories. So far in 2018, 13 women have won gubernatorial primaries, 198 women have won House primaries and 19 women have won primaries in U.S. Senate races. That number took a jump this week with three more women securing their party’s Senate nominations.  (6)>>2020 Presidential election held now.  On the remade electoral map, Republicans have the built-in edge. If Trump can hold most of the states he won in 2016, he’s well on his way to victory. Meanwhile, the list of Republican states that Democrats can hope to flip is short. While Democrats reclaimed the House in the midterm elections, there’s a real danger of overreach that comes with renewed heft in Congress. The party has already planned extensive investigations into alleged corruption, among other schemes, to confound Trump. Trump’s electoral base wouldn’t mind a handful of ideological betrayals since rank-and-file Republicans are really here for the culture war stuff and not for the concrete policy anyway. So Trump would enter the 2020 campaign with his base intact but also with the brand as a freethinking moderate who’s at odds with the right wing of congressional Republicans. Democrats would end up nominating someone with a relatively extreme rejectionist profile, and Trump would be in a good position to improve his approval ratings and get reelected.   (7)>>Democrats , the Republican party are both failures , they are failing Americans      It is time for the voters in the USA to establish a multiparty system such as in the Northern European countries and Germany, where the people select candidates, not based on the thickness of their wallet but on the social and economic agendas, be it protection of nature, affordable housing and education for all i.e. creating equal opportunities for all to succeed in life etc. Multiparty system creates consensus through compromise while two-party system has led to confrontation and destructive partisan behavior in the governance of the USA...





Sunday, November 4, 2018

Midterms Ramble.

If you look closely at this ,
the "blue wave" is really
nothing .
Blue Wave If it's  going to happen . NOW we are approaching the mid-terms . THIS NOVEMBER 6TH is going to determine the fate of theTrumpAdministration.The "mid-term wave" - a sweeping electoral triumph that reshapes the national political map - is a recurring phenomenon in US politics.  (1)>>Is one about to crash on Republicans in Washington? Democrats have a five in six chance of being able to take the House.Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to get control of that chamber. AS it is right down the Democrats hold 49 to 52 Republican. That not a big margin . Its always been puzzling that even at 49 seats the Democrats have had some power , since Trump won, the Democrats have become cowards. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight predicted on Thursday that Democrats have a 15% chance of flipping the Senate and asserted that Democrats would need "some type of systematic polling error to win the Senate." Thelatest polls are suggesting that the Democrats are doing well enough in the suburbs and exurbs to pick up the twenty-three G.O.P.-held seats in the House they need to flip for a majority, and possibly a dozen or two more. Donald Trump has reason to be nervous.A Democratic victory in either the House of Representatives or the Senate would give the party the power to open investigations into various aspects of his administration, the Financial Times reports. Sources described as being familiar with the president’s thinking told CNN that he is “genuinely concerned” about the outcome of elections, most of which will take place on 6 November.
Voter rage ?
Republican  agenda
seen through a cartoon .
The generic ballot tells us voters prefer Democrats to Republicans by a 10-point average. Its not really much. (1.2)>>The president’s approval ratings, a historically useful guide to his party’s midterm hopes? The lowest at this point of any in recorded history. Recent special elections? Democrats took a U.S. Senate seat in Alabama for the first time in 30 years and a Wisconsin state Senate seat that had stayed Republican for 17 years. The average swing to Democrats in the four special elections so far: more than 20 percent. Republicans in the House seem to be heading for the hills: Thirty-one have already announced they are leaving, compared with just 15   Democrats. According to the UVA Center for Politics’ Crystal Ball, an online publication that analyzes political data, the Democrats have not been this exposed (vulnerable) since 1970, during the Nixon administration.  -So, right now, polling shows Democrats have a clear advantage in congressional supportfor the House of Representatives.That's 435 congressional districts,all having competitions,though there's only about 70 that are actually competitive.Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take control of the House.The Senate is a
weaker position for Democrats.They have many vulnerable incumbent senators
and they have to win a whole string of different elections,in order to win. But they're still competitivein a number of battleground states.What's really interesting about the houseis that it's flipped back and forthin a series of recent midterm elections,always going against the president's party.Polling shows that the election's shaping upvery much as a referendum on President Trump. (2)>>Roughly 9 in 10 people who disapprove of Trump saythat they're planning to support Democrats.Nearly as many people who approve of Trump say they're planning to support Republicans.The other big factor in midterms,in congressional elections, is turnout.Only about 40% of people have voted in midterm electionsover the past 20 years,though there are some signs that people are more interestedin turning out this year than last.We've seen a roughly 10-point jump in the share of Americans who are absolutely certain to vote this year,compared to four years ago,and that's been concentrated among groups that tend to favor Democrats,so, nonwhite voters, as well as younger voters.Turnout in midterm electionshas never exceeded 49% in the last 100 years,but it would be substantial if turnout increased by 5 or 10 points more than in 2014, when just 36% turned out. So we're really in record-low territory.The question is whether that's gonna seea significant jump this year.The difference between the 2016 election and this year's election is really that Hillary Clinton is not on the ballot. (3)>>Exit polling in 2016 showed that a large share of Trump's voters, between 2 in 10, 3 in 10, of his supporters, had serious qualms about his qualifications for office or other temperament, but they just disliked Hillary Clinton more.
But the dynamic is different when there isn't a clearDemocratic bogeyman for Republicans to criticize.Heading into the final weeks of the election,a few things we're really gonna be looking at are the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans. Whether Democrats can match Republicans' enthusiasmand whether it suggests they're going to turn outat high rates is a big question.The other question is the degreeto which Republicans and Republican-leaningindependents really stick with their partyand whether Trump supporters really are enthusiasticabout voting for Republicans and whether they can match Democrats' unification on that side.The other thing we're also watching foris really any big issues.The news cycle has been incredibly quick and we've shown that people have prioritized
and really focused in on a lot of major policy issues this year, from guns to immigration to Supreme Court justices. It's still not clear what's going to dominate the conversation in the final week of the election, but it very well could shape people's decisions as they head into the voting booth.

Blue Wave or NO?
If there is a blue wave coming to Washington it might look something like this  , but it can be deceiving . Now? I’m not so sure.Trump's message, or to see his voters as racist and deplorable, is to miss the point. It is not that the Democrats' elite are geriatrics, though they certainly are; it is that they are too entrenched, too tone deaf and out of touch in myriad ways. The Clintons need to retire to discover the ambiguous pleasures of obscurity that the rest of us already know. Barack Obama is as eloquent as ever, and inspirational, but he needs to understand the dismay many of us feel when seeing him and his fellow Democrats taking money from big companies that outsource work and exploit foreign workers, all the while sucking up to celebrities. Mika Brzezinski warned this week on Morning Joe—and indeed, Trump’s eleventh-hour fear mongering may be enough to dull the impact of the blue wave. More likely, current trends will produce the same outcome that has been predicted for months. The only variable to watch is how many nail-biters get hyped in the process.    This is because there are two forces at work in (4)>>American politics that render the system highly anti-democratic, even in the House of Representatives, which is supposed to be the most democratic thing we have at the federal level.If you look at the last presidential election at the county level, you get this [ SEE MAP] during Brett
Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings for the US Supreme Court angry activists of all genders and colors turned up to protest in numbers this is a key strategy the Democrats have been banking on make people show up and party. The state legislative elections will not only be crucial for state-level policy debates but could also determine the fate of abortion rights if the Supreme Court moves to undercut Roe v. Wade, the future of Medicaid expansion in some states, not to mention innumerable other issues like education, taxes, and labor rights.Currently, the Democrats are outnumbered in the Senate 51-48, and in the House of Representatives with an overwhelming Republican lead of 239-192. Barring an unprecedented sweep in the House races, which would involve retaining 192 seats while flipping 47 Republican seats, it seems that the best chance for Democrats is to retake control of the Senate.Well how do you know what's going to happen?  The polls of the Electorate indicate a very fluid situation, and there are dead heats and very close races all over the country - so none of us really knows what is going to be the final result.  Many of you pro-Trumpers seem to be manifesting the same hubris and overconfidence you heavily criticized the Dems for back in the 2016 election where Trump pulled off an E.C. upset.


NOTES AND COMMENTS:
(1)>>Is one about to crash on Republicans in Washington? The new poll also confirmed that the Democratic Party now has a huge advantage over Republicans among nonwhites (sixty-six per cent to twenty-six per cent); people under the age of forty (fifty-eight per cent to thirty-seven per cent); and white college-educated women (sixty-two per cent to thirty-six per cent). On Tuesday, the latter group can probably be relied upon to vote in large numbers. The results of the election, though, may well hinge on turnout in the first two groups. Obviously, we won’t know until after the election. (1.2)>>The president’s approval ratings.  Donald Trump’s net approval rating, while still underwater, has been rising for months. And G.O.P. strategists are seeing signs that Trump’s recent fear-mongering—about “Kavanaugh, the caravan, law and order, and common sense,” as the president put it at a recent rally—is paying electoral dividends. “Republican enthusiasm doesn’t quite equal the white-hot enthusiasm of Democratic voters, G.O.P. consultant Whit Ayres told the Associated Press, “but the Kavanaugh hearings got it pretty close.”    (2)>>Roughly 9 in 10 people who disapprove of Trump saythat they're planning to support Democrats.  Much of the Democrat leadership still hasn’t gotten around to figuring out what was it that led to DJ Trump becoming the President. And the best example of this in a cultural sense is the premature elation shown by Joy Behar on the View after she was a handed a note that said Flynn was going to testify that Candidate Trump had instructed him to call on the Russians, when in fact it was President-elect Trump who had instructed. Mainstream left still IMO continues to live in a bubble where anything, regardless of whether it is true or not, is jumped on to before due diligence, because it confirms the pre-existing bias of wanting to see Trump not be the President. When you have this mindset, the politics is naturally going to be very flawed, and akin to playing checkers when the game being played is actually chess. Trump seems to understand this innately.(3)>>Exit polling in 2016 showed that a large share of Trump's voters.  The midterm elections almost always punish the party in office. This has happened in the last century and this time was no exception. Since 1898 the party has only increased the chairmanship seats in the House of Representatives in four mid-term elections: 1902, 1934, 1998 and 2002. In 2014 that was in the game, especially the majority in the Senate and Republicans six more seats needed to regain control in 2006, they have achieved and surpassed.Like any midterm election there has been the prelude to the next presidential in 2016. Republicans have received a vote of confidence to end the ‘guerrilla war’ they have with the Democrats and the executive, but nobody believes a miracle, so we must prepare for two years of blockade and rule by decree in the US.Poll after poll, the electorate has expressed frustration and suspended the management of the entire political class, Democrats and Republicans alike, so that the effect of yesterday’s results in the upcoming presidential election and depends on what you do to each other from today to change that mood. If the middle and lower classes are still seeing the benefits of recovery, with stagnant or falling wages, and the Republicans, rather than cooperate with Obama, block their major reforms, today’s victory may be futile to get the jackpot which is the White House. Democrats probably will advance the nomination and Hillary Clinton can emerge stronger. (4)>>American politics that render the system highly anti-democratic Since the 1980s, incrementally the American political system has come to become plutocratic, and the extension of this on a cultural sense has alienated people in rural areas, nationalists and basically all those groups who don’t really fit on the prefabricated mold of what a progressive ought to look like as per the priesthood of the system. When political systems decay in such fashions, at some point it triggers a resurgence of a very authoritarian figure who derives his political power from this powerlessness felt among people, who promises to fight against a fatalistic acceptance of this powerlessness. That figure in the current era is Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton couldn’t have ran a worse message (I am with Her), when the power to be derived laid with integrating with the powerlessness felt by You, the pleb (Donald Trump )