Saturday, September 29, 2012

Rushing at the Polls.

With President Obama The deepening recession is taking a slight toll on President Barack Obama's standing, but he's still twice as popular as archnemesis Rush Limbaugh, according to a new McClatchy-Ipsos poll. consistently beating Mitt Romney in most of the recent national opinion polls, hearing the rage of Rush Limbaugh’s Less than half of likely GOP primary voters in three Super Tuesday states said they have a favorable view of Limbaugh – 45 percent favorable to 28 percent unfavorable in Ohio, 46-29 percent in Tennessee, and 44-30 percent in Georgia — a Public Policy Polling survey in those states found.You have to look at the numbers if they poll 5oo people and they know going in that they are polling a group of 500 that lean right or left the poll is skewed. The polls will correct in about 4 weeks to save what crediblilty the polling company has. Watch Rasmusson he has been bore correct than most. The left has to try to surpress the right it is the only thing they have. That is why the odd polls. Anytime you see CBS, USA today or NY Times before a poll you should know the numbers have been cooked.You need to take a real close look at both the sampling and methodologies of those polls. Other than Ras, the others have been consistently shown to be over sampling democrats and seriously undersampling independents. These same entities admit that the right base is more energized than the left then continue to oversample left leaning voters. They are using sampling sizes based on the last presidential election but Obama's base is seriously depressed compared to 2008. A better sample  rate would be to use 2010 which is closer to what Ras uses. If they do not correct themselves they are in for a shock come Nov.The skewed polls meme has taken over much of conservative media. According to many conservative critics, the current set polls, which show President Obama leading nationally and in key battleground states, are all wrong because they over sample Democrats. To correct this “skewing”, Dean Chambers of unskewedpolls.com has recalculated every poll with more Republican-friendly party identification samples. Chambers essentially reverses the results of every poll, showing Mitt Romney with a big lead even though the pollster reports otherwise.The truth actually probably lies somewhere in the middle. Rather than assuming everything will go the way of Republicans or Democrats, the pollsters simply ask questions to respondents, and then report their numbers assuming neither side wins all of the unknowns. What the pollsters are reporting is the real version of “unskewed polls.” Karl Rove and other Republican strategists are suggesting that some polling organizations are overestimating the number of Democratic voters, but that argument is largely a red herring. In many swing states, successive polls carried out by the same pollsters, using the same sampling procedure, have showed Obama gaining ground. Even polling organizations that tend to lean Republican have found the same trend.

NOTES & COMMENTS:


. By double digits, Americans say women would be better off under an Obama presidency; men would be better off under a Romney presidency. Given that, it's hardly surprising that female voters nationwide and in some crucial swing states have boosted Obama while male voters are inclined to support Romney.
With one group, though, there seems to be a disconnect. Those 65 and older are the age group that most strongly backs Romney. But by 11 points, Americans say seniors would fare better over the next four years if Obama prevails.
In contrast, voters under 30 are Obama's best age group. By 13 points, Americans say young people will do better if the president wins a second term.
The decisive judgments of which groups that would be winners in an Obama or Romney presidency is a sign of how sharply defined the two candidates have become. Investors would do better under Romney, those surveyed say by an overwhelming 41 points. Racial and ethnic minorities would do better under Obama, they say by an equally huge 42 points.
Only one group fell right in the middle: Small-business owners. By 47%-47%, those surveyed divided over whether they would do better under Obama or Romney. For the other nine groups named, Americans by double digits and well outside the survey's margin of error say they would fare better under one or the other.
The poll of 1,446 adults, taken Monday through Thursday, has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.


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