Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Iran Deal is about OIL.

Well  the  Right Wing media commentators have already said that President Obama sold us out in the Iran deal ( including Israel )"Don't like the Iran deal? (1)>> What's the alternative? .There are no supporters for this deal worldwide with the exception of Russia which wants to sell Iran arms and China which wants to buy Iranian oil. All of the Arab states are opposed. Traditional Democratic bases of support such as the Jewish community are adamantly opposed. This deal has the potential to dramatically change the political landscape and rewrite who’s America’s allies are from now on as nations like Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states perceive that America has abandoned them.  There is an alternative, that's costly . It's military action (oh well , on the Republican side) That's to say the better deal, the "credible alternative". Er, where is it? What was it? How does it work? Honestly we as a nation have to deal with Iran on a diplomatic level first .  I guess that's our first alternative. But President Obama  and his aides are relying on a three-word question to protect the agreement from congressional interference: "Compared to what?". Israeli PM Netanyahu declared that the deal even as it was taking shape spelled an end to the State of Israel. Most of the Israeli center-left opposition has since joined in the doomsday predictions. However, senior officials in Israel's defense establishment hold that the deal would actually reduce the threat posed by Iran, freeing resources to deal with other threats. REALISTICALLY . (2)>> There is more to the deal . It's lifting decades long economic sanctions . The UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution Monday endorsing the historic deal on Iran's nuclear program and cleared a path to lift sanctions crippling its economy.The passing of the resolution sets in motion a gradual process -- conditional on Iran abiding by the deal -- that can terminate seven UN resolutions imposing sanctions on Iran since 2006.The agreement with Tehran was reached on Tuesday in Vienna by the UN council's five permanent members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, plus Germany. Perhaps it involves "returning" billions of assets frozen since the 1980's . It's
(3)>> MORE ABOUT OIL , getting cheapest oil (with exception in California ) . A sneaky Capitalist dream . Faced with the prospect of Iranian oil returning to the global market, crude prices fell for a fourth straight session, dropping to $50.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.What oil bears may underestimate is the hurdles on the diplomatic path to Iran's return to world energy markets.Some energy experts estimate that Iran could raise its exports by 500,000-800,000 barrels per day (bpd) within six months of sanctions being lifted, but that is likely to be a result of a gradual build-up.Iran’s economy is still heavily dependent on oil; 15% of it is based on oil, compared with 50% of government income that comes from crude sale. Many big oil firms, such as ENI, Shell and Total, are looking into Iran’s oil and gas opportunities. Iran’s oil ministry is offering lucrative deals. With US ties improving, American multinationals such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron, which were previously absent from Iran, could also weigh in. It has also been reported that Apple and even McDonald’s are looking into franchise-based business operations in the country. It is really not designed to solve any real problem of nuclear proliferation as Iran never had a bomb and, as confirmed by US and Israeli intelligence agencies, has not worked on nuclear weapons since at least 2003. This was about regime change in Iran to a regime more inclined to take orders from Washington. However Obama has figured out that he needs Iran to assist in overcoming (4)>>  Islamic State  and also in making life even more difficult for Russia by putting further downward pressure on oil prices and in getting Iran to substitute its Gas supplies to Western Europe for those of Russia. Iran has somewhere around 158 billion barrels of oil reserves, the fourth largest in the world. It also sitting on the second largest reserves of natural gas. But much of that has not been developed yet, due to the isolation it has faced in recent years.At the OPEC meeting in early June 2015, several oil companies gushed over the potential in Iran. They also visited Iran for more direct talks. The FT reports that Royal Dutch Shell and Italian oil giant ENI traveled to Tehran in May and June to discuss areas of cooperation. Oil exports at a time when daily crude supply already is outstripping global demand. That would lead to lower oil prices.Oil traders' knee-jerk reaction was to dump oil early Tuesday: A barrel of U.S. based crude, or West Texas Intermediate, tumbled more than 2.5%, But oil rebounded later in the day. WTI posted a gain for the day of $1.06, or 2%, to $53.26.  
Yes, the American people are easily misled, but some are waking up. Its about the oil . Forget the NUKES!

NOTES AND COMMENTS:
(1)>>  What's the alternative ? The polls speak for themselves . Americans support the nuclear agreement with Iran by 56% to 37%. No, they disapprove of the deal, 48% to 38%.  The conflicting findings come from respected polling operations with long track records of accurately tracking public opinion. A Washington Post/ABC News survey released Monday found Americans supporting the deal; a poll from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center released Tuesday found disapproval.How can both be correct? Question wording seems likely to be a big part of the answer.For starters, realize that maybe one in a hundred people on the street could give you even a general sense of what the actual terms of the deal are. This is chiefly a proxy question, at least for partisans, of how much they trust Obama. Democrats do so they’re pro-deal, Republicans don’t so they’re anti. There’s also an element on both sides, although certainly bigger on the left, that believes any deal is better than nothing at this point because it means there’ll be no war, and that’s the most important accomplishment in all of this. The White House itself shares that view. Stopping an Iranian bomb would be nice, stopping an attack on Iran by Israel and/or the U.S. would be nicer. (2)>> REALISTICALLY. There more to the deal like a domino effect , let's explain ...Barack Obama signed a nuclear deal with Iran so that he can extract concessions over Syria in return for Iran being allowed to control Iraq and for which it has to rein in the Houthis in Yemen to pacify the Saudis and simultaneously restrain Kurdish ambitions thus easing Turkey’s anxiety about Kurdish independence as an incentive for it to cooperate regionally allowing both Saudi Arabia and Turkey to come on board with Obama’s plan for Israel/Palestine which will also appease Egypt allowing it to play a bigger role in Libya to control the southern shores of the Mediterranean reducing migrant flows into Europe to ease the pressure on Greece and Italy for which Europe agrees to soften its stance against Russia allowing for a solution in Ukraine that allows NATO to maintain a presence in the East without threatening Russia which will be rewarded by removing the international sanctions against it allowing it to increase its trade with Europe.(3)>> OILIran would soon be able to sell crude. will start competing fiercely to regain market share that they have lost to their Persian Gulf neighbors. Unfortunately for Iran, the timing could not be worse. Oil prices are depressed and already there is a glut of oil on the market. Adding Iran’s crude
will put further downward pressure on oil prices. (4)>> ISLAMIC STATE.  Contrary to any popular belief . The Terrorist State of Levant has a revenue source in oil. Most western countries not knowing and buying blind to "cheap oil" .  Yes, most American's and British alike are filling up their cars with Islamic State oil .  Islamic State is still extracting and selling oil in Syria and has adapted its trading techniques despite a month of strikes by U.S.-led forces aimed at cutting off this major source of income for the group, residents, oil executives and traders say.The 11 oil fields that IS controls in Iraq and Syria have made it a largely independent financial machine. Reports show that IS-controlled fields in Iraq produce between 25,000 and 40,000 barrels of oil per day, at an estimated value of approximately $1.2 million, before being smuggled out to Iran, Kurdistan, Turkey and Syria.  NATO doesn't want to bomb the oil because they want some to siphon after all this is over.

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