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| Prediction, that Bibi Natanyahu will be either overthrown or Assassinated in the Next few years . Unless he resigns . |
The War between Israel and Iran started by Bibi Natanyahu may have spelled the end of his political career . Possible the end of the State of Israel as we know it .Is it correct to say that Netanyahu doesn't want to call an election and is using the war to delay political accountability? The pre-emptive irrational attack on Iran has set into motion terrible consequences for the whole world. Internationally, Israel is looking increasingly isolated, as images of the starvation it is inflicting on Gaza flood global media. Domestically, Netanyahu faces deep criticism of a war many believe he is only prolonging to stay in power. Legally, the prosecution in his corruption trial has begun its cross-examination of him, while politically, he is facing a possible collapse of his governing coalition. While he is in power, no progress can be made. The only troubling question is how much damage will he inflict before he departs, especially given that there is a three month period when he could do considerable damage once his government falls and before a new government is elected and formed. The war with Iran has put him on a spot that he is basically dragging Israel down with him .
Bibi is a warmonger.
Edit: Everyone is operating on the mistaken assumption that Israel or anyone else is actually capable of preventing Iran from developing a nuke. All evidence seems to indicate that only an insignificant delay is possible due to the existence of Fortow. I do not think any state has a bunker busting bomb that is capable of destroying a site that is embedded a half mile beneath a mountain. The most powerful publicly known bunker buster is the recently developed Hyunmoo 5 from Korea that is capable of penetrating 100m into the ground. Previous most capable bomb was the American GBU-57 that maxed out at 61m...a half mile is 1609m ffs...there is no bomb capable of taking something out that deep short of the most powerful nuclear bomb ever detonated on the planet by the Soviets....nobody is taking out Fortow and therefore its more than reasonable to conclude that it is not possible to prevent Iran from developing a nuke. To assume that it is possible defies all common sense and logic and is a bit delusional.
Bibi Natanyahu is the end of modern Israel.
The strike on Iran was a reckless self serving act of warmongering by Bibi meant to embroil Israel in a far more perilous and extensive confontation that will ensure that he maintains his grip on power. Bibi has always been a warmonger..he lobbied hard for America's disastrous invasion of Iraq and has continuosly sought to manipulate America into conflict, which is exactly what this is as well .And here's the biggest reason why Bibi is a reckless warmonger who is endangering not only Israel, but American assets and personnel in the region with this act of all out war. The casus belli for this act of war is illegitimate as Israel is incapable of preventing Iran from developing a nuke, short of launching an all out nuclear assault on Iran...this only temporarily delays things at best...why? Per the NYTimes:
Dragging America to war is a sin.
" (\*Fordow) is an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps base, and is deep within a mountain — nearly a half-mile under the surface, according to Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who has visited the site. “If you don’t get Fordow,” Brett McGurk, who has served as Middle East coordinator for several American presidents of both parties, “you haven’t eliminated their ability to produce weapons-grade material.” American officials have said Israel does not have the bunker-busting bombs to get at that facility, where Iran’s most advanced centrifuges have been installed. And if Fordow survives the attacks, then there is a good chance the key technology of the country’s the nuclear program will survive with it."\* Trump has already ruled out any American involvment...Iran's nuclear program will survive. If anything this will motivate them to accelerate their development. Also, the nuclear threat to Israel is vastly overstated and I base that simply on geography. Israel is a small nation surrounded by many other nations. The nuclear annihilation of Israel would be a guaranteed catastrophe for the entire region from the fallout from any major nuclear attack.. Doesn't matter how many times the Ayatollah has called for the destruction of Israel. Politicians and dictators pandering to their people is one thing, actually doing is another. North Korea threatens to annihilate South Korea and the United States on a daily basis and will never actually do it short of a last gasp attempt at taking down as many with them if the regime collapses. The entire purpose and intent of North Korea's nuke development was regime survival..the exact same is true for Iran. The prospect of Iran actually launching an offensive first strike nuclear attack on Israel is about as implausible as it gets. This strike was not an act for survival and the stated objective is one that is unachievable. The strikes on the six nuclear scientists has once again resulted in exponentially more innocent civilian lives being killed by taking out the scientist and their families and any other families who had the misfortune of being within the blast radius of the big ass missile or bomb the IAF hit them with...many will just handwave this away as fair play as if its ever justified to kill someone's family and neighbors just to kill one individual. This was a cynical, self serving act of warmongering that endangers Israeli lives. Already know the legion of Israelis and Jews on this sub will insist otherwise but at least try to put forth sensible arguments as to why that is instead of just saying so like most usually do. The main point I challenge anyone to refute is to how this strike makes any sense if Fordow cannot be taken out...
I think Bibi has less than a year, but he's going to kick and scream until he's gone.
"overthrown" - no.and 🙂↕️ Yes .
His coalition falling - maybe. There are a few reasons this could happen.
First, understand the makeup of Bibi's coalition. There are five parties. Likud is Bibi's party. They stand for nothing, believe nothing, and really only care about staying in power, with Bibi at their helm. UTJ is an Ashkenazi Haredi party. They stand for Haredim not having to enlist, and agreeing with the policy decisions of whomever is willing to support that. Shas is the Sephardi Haredi party. They stand for basically the same as what UTJ stands for, but are more willing to work within Israeli society and norms to make that happen. Religious Zionism is a far right party that advocates the displacement of all Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza. Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) is the slightly more right wing version of Religious Zionism (they ran together in the last elections, and split up once they were in the Knesset). How could the government break up?
1. There's internal strife in the coalition. This current government is not some group of people who all love each other and get along and have a unified vision. Bibi's coalition shares some ideological principles. MOSTLY, it's a group of five parties that all hate each others' guts, who are vaguely willing to work together because they are all collectively the only people willing to work with any of the other coalition parties. The biggest ideological difference that might damage the coalition is Haredi conscription. The Haredim don't want to enlist in the IDF, and roughly 100% of all non-Haredi Israelis want Haredim to enlist. 2. Another significant issue in front of the coalition is obviously Gaza. The Haredim want the war over, if only because it takes pressure to enlist off of them. RZ and OY do not want the war to end until there aren't any more Palestinians between the river and the sea. That's a fairly significant point of conflict. 3. (this is the most realistic) The government has a year and a bit left before it is automatically collapsed and new elections are called. That's Israeli law - governments stay together for 4 years at most. It is never advantageous for an Israeli leader intending to stay in power to let the government collapse at 4 years. It is always politically advantageous to collapse the government when the time is in your favor. I think Bibi was actually planning on collapsing the government fairly recently, by striking Iran, and riding a popularity surge around that to an electoral advantage. DJT negotiating with Iran harms that for Bibi. Regardless, Bibi doesn't want his government to fall, he wants to take down his own government (when the time is right for him). I don't know what that looks like. It could be a strike on Iran, it could be a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, I'm not sure.
What happens when new elections are called?
Every single poll, without fail, since October 7 2023 has shown Bibi no longer has majority support in Israel. Every single poll has shown the current five governing parties (sitting at 68 seats, out of 120) pulling a combined 52ish seats. Naftali Bennett is the most likely next prime minister. He's personally very right wing, but he governs as a centrist, because any coalition he could build would have a combo of right wing and left wing parties. You could expect a permanent end to the war in Gaza, and potentially peace with the Saudis under PM Bennett. Probably not anything more intense in either direction, like occupation of Gaza, annexation of the West Bank, or a 2 state solution. Israel’s ruling coalition is facing its most serious crisis yet. Two of the country’s ultra-Orthodox parties — United Torah Judaism and Shas — announced they are quitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government over proposed changes to long-standing rules that exempt ultra-Orthodox students from Israel’s military draft. The split is likely to collapse the coalition. The centrist opposition Yesh Atid party has already filed a motion to dissolve the Knesset, Israel’s legislature. A vote on that, set for June 11, is likely to succeed, triggering a general election by November. The withdrawal of the two parties came in response to a bill introduced by a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party that would curtail military exemptions. The ultra-Orthodox community has largely been exempted from military service since Israel’s founding, but that arrangement is under growing strain as the Gaza war stretches Israel’s manpower, forcing repeated reserve call-ups that have generated increasing public anger at this exemption. Bibi is going to fight all of this. He is going to rabble rouse, and kick and scream until he is out of politics. That is his nature. Israelis should throw him to the curb.
