Friday, April 15, 2022

The Mid-Terms Election PREDICTIONS .

Oh NO the Midterms 
Cometh.
2022 midterm elections are just months away, and with control of Congress – and, invariably, the second half of President Joe Biden's first term – at stake.The Fear Factor is coming for the Democrats in 2022 .No doubt. But 2022 is pretty unlikely to be good for them.  (1)>>The whole economy in the U.S. is tanking .Angry voters slammed by higher prices and scarred by two years of fighting the pandemic are poised to (2)>>punish Democrats in midterm elections, according to some of the leading experts in consumer sentiment and behavior.  
Biden is personally unpopular, but Biden isn't even running in 2022. 
Biden is accused of being aloof, disengaged, overly distant, somehow boring and not compelling, and overly reluctant to be available to the news media (and by implication the American people) because he does not give daily or weekly press conferences.Over the last few months, unflattering stickers of President Biden have been popping up at gas stations across America. They've been spotted in places like Georgia, Ohio, Idaho, and along I-95 between Washington, D.C., and Florida. The stickers typically show Biden pointing at the price of gas, saying "I did that! (3)>>The narrative of Biden's "failed presidency" is based on public opinion polls showing that his levels of support have fallen to the level of Donald Trump's, or lower, on several occasions. This is taken as proof that the American people have turned against Biden and his policy agenda.The generic ballot shows Republicans up by 1 point. That suggests they might flip 10-15 seats. It would flip the majority, but it's hardly a blowout. The Democrats basically only need the polls to move 2% in order to be in the lead. Biden in a bad place right now. He allowed Manchin to walk all over him and it undermined everything. The best hope is for him not to run for President. It's the only way to get Democrats to the polls. The Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, said Republicans will force Joe Biden to govern as a “moderate” if the GOP retakes Congress in November. (4)>>The twists and turns of the pandemic and inflation will probably remain the biggest factors at play. Either they abate and life feels pretty normal again or they remain problems and the public remains angry. Even if they gradually fall out of the headlines would be helpful. Since the media no longer has the latest Trumpian outrage/scandal to cover they've seemingly settled for "pandemics and inflation suck" and the usual  (4.1)>>"Democrats in disarray". No one learns anything (eg inflation causes or filibuster gridlock) as the coverage is superficial and lazy but voters get continuously irritated by reminders of lousy news about Ukraine will dominate the news through the whole year.At this point (5)>>I see Biden going the way of Jimmy Carter. A fairly unremarkable president who leaves no real impact once out of office. I’d be surprised if he gets a second term(it really matters who he’s going up against and what his health is like at that point cause he’d be so damn old by then) and the democrats will definitely lose power. I’m pretty sure no one really likes this guy. He keeps screw up and continues to show just how much of an idiot he is that honestly nothing he does really surprises me. Just another moderate democrat who’s not going to do anything really important while in office. But hey at least we got Juneteenth as a holiday now🙄The mad thing is the Dems are going to lose control because of Biden's horrible positions, statements, and flip-flopping. (6)>>Kamala's "black girl magic" seems to only have the ability to make her disappear. The ruling party almost always loses in the midterms and young people especially don't vote in midterms. So I'm not sure how much of an affect this would have had either way. Still sucks he wont do it though.Of course, there are still 10 months between now and Election Day 2022, so it’s difficult to say what will happen to (7)>>Biden’s approval rating in that time.Unfortunately for President Biden, voters show a strong tendency to blame presidents for economic problems (and credit them for economic gains), whether or not their policies are the actual cause. The White House has been toying with a messaging strategy to try and deflect inflation blame onto the monopoly power and greed of Corporate America  But recent developments mean Democrats aren't as likely to face the political apocalypse threatening them last year.


NOTES AND COMMENTS: 

 (1)>>The whole economy in the U.S. is tanking .Inflation is here to stay. Violent crime is up around the country. Biden’s chaotic withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan was nothing short of a catastrophe, with reverberations on the international stage, and with Russia’s war in Ukraine, we are again seeing the results of his failure to lead. The only thing Americans seem to be united around is their mutual disapproval of his administration’s performance — and some groups apparently have had enough. But inflation is affecting virtually everything, including the price of food. Then there are knock-on effects, such as mortgage rates that have risen sharply, making it harder for people to buy homes.The history is clear: Misunderstand why you’re in the Oval Office in the first place, move too far to the left, too quickly, and pay the price. Yet based on Biden’s first two months in office, it appears no one in his White House has learned the lessons.   (2)>>punish Democrats in midterm elections Okay, on the one hand, Biden and Congress have passed some pretty epic legislation including another Covid Relief package and the Infrastructure bill (the later with Republican support). This shows that he can get things done. and I would count these as major successes.On the other hand, the BBB is not getting done this year and has been watered down, inflation is being seen as a major issue and Republicans are running and winning on a platform of immigration fear, CRT and other culture wars crap.In short, things are not looking good but there is still potential for victory. So how do the Democrats save themselves in 2022 and by extension 2024?(3)>>The narrative of Biden's "failed presidency". It is clear Americans aren’t buying the bill of goods Mr. Biden has tried to sell since entering office. Everything from inflation was “transitory,” immigration “seasonal,” the Afghanistan debacle the “biggest airlift in U.S. history,” and calling the supply chain crisis a “high-class problem” due to Americans consuming too much.We are witnessing a president who is out of touch with reality, spends his weekends resting in Delaware, refuses to take a leadership position on the world stage, and blames everyone but himself for the problems facing our country. Mr. Biden was primarily elected on his competency and promise to unify the country. He’s failed on both accounts. Maybe Biden wants to distract the American people from his failed presidency. It is possible that he and his radical progressive engineers believe that the Ukraine crisis allows them to implement the most radical elements of their agenda (like the Green New Deal) under the imprimatur of “standing up to Russia.”(4)>>The twists and turns of the pandemic and inflation will probably remain the biggest factors at play. Yep and all this economic destruction. I do feel bad for those that have died, but the economy is going to suffer tremendously for a long time to come. It will take decades to recover from the shortages we are experiencing. The global economy shut down like a train coming to a complete and sudden stop last year , is barely in recovery . Otherwise the Pandemic is NOT REALLY GOING AWAY even if the Republicans take over .Inflation is a persistent issue coming out of the COVID lockdown economy and continues to create a great amount of confusion for the stock market , as well as the war in Ukraine as part of the uncertainty .(4.1)>>"Democrats in disarray"The problem with the Democrats is that the interest of their Donors and their voters oppose each other. Because of this they always prop up a villian or the Republicans to explain why they couldn't do any of that stuff they wanted to. But if you vote for them next time, they will try harder. Joe Biden’s recent plunge in popularity: the Omicron-fueled resurgence of COVID-19, the return of 1970s-style inflation, and most of all, Democrats’ failure to execute their legislative agendaJoe is the most establishment president we’ve had since Bill or before. He’s one of the biggest politicians on corporate payroll and has profited off of Obama’s presidency just like those senators that traded stock just before this CoVID stuff. (Obviously, comparing three covid trading and joes, covid is the worse of the two, but hey, both are corrupt.) Democrats not only have to come up with some unifying compromise. Democrats … by preemptively spinning what could be a monumental but imperfect victory into a bitter political defeat, the criticism contributed to a potential long term demoralization of Democratic voters —(5)>>I see Biden going the way of Jimmy CarterThe contrast is stark between Carter, who became president with minimal relevant experience, and Biden, who had 44 years in the Senate and as vice president. Carter pushed innovative policies with bipartisan support. Biden hasn’t. Carter learned on the job and changed policies in response to events. From Biden, we’ve seen nothing so far but stubborn persistence.Both Carter and Biden promised to bring the country together after the tenures of Republicans reviled by the media elite. But instead of national unity, they are embarking on policies that will make it hard to bring people together.(6)>>Kamala's "black girl magic". "Black Girl Magic" Coloring Book featuring Kamala . Aside from coloring books , Harris is vary unpopular . Now, imagine a 2024 election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. It would be MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). It would be a huge loss to the Democrats , they know it . He put Harris in charge of addressing the crisis at the southern borderwhich has grown exponentially worse since she took on that responsibility. And Biden occasionally sends her off to make speeches. But that’s turned out to be even worse than her handling of the border crisis — because a vice president’s only real job is to not embarrass the president and the administration. That’s something Biden is able to do, and often does, without any help from Harris.(7)>>Biden’s approval rating in that time. Biden has a net negative job rating of 45% approve to 50% . Right Now opinion of the president’s job performance is lower than ratings given to other Democratic officeholders.Every few weeks we see commentary about a new poll claiming increasing dislike of President Biden. People have a negative view of how things are going, and whenever that's the case, they blame whoever's in charge, regardless of whether or not they have anything to do with what they're mad about.The president obviously doesn't have full control of these things, but because they claim they will fix these issues in their campaign, there is some kernel of accountability imposed on them.People here a reaching for so many reasons for his falling approval but in reality it all comes down to one question, are you personally better off than before he took office? People are watching their lives get harder financially day by day and he doesn’t appear to be making any changes to provide relief. We can argue about what he has done/could do but that doesn’t matter as much as the perception that he’s not taking their suffering seriously enough. Deep down, people don’t care about Ukraine now or Afghanistan withdrawal in comparison to food, gas, housing, medical and child care costs. People just want to see a light at the end of the tunnel and his brief and scarce media appearances are not speaking to the problems they are having in their daily lives.But outside of that, we have insane gas prices, insane grocery prices, our pay is not improving while inflation is at insane levels. Our country isn't anymore unified than when trump was in office, people don't have faith in this president either. The dems had the house, senate and office, but couldn't pass their big bill last fall. Things aren't going well. And it's not all attributable to the politicians, but they don't seem to be helping at all. It took a year to get us a couple thousand bucks for staying home during covid, it took them like 24 hours to send Ukraine billions more.