Sunday, January 26, 2020

Impeachment Trial "Cliff Notes" .

There's nothing legal about Impeachment - it's all political. Sure, they take an "oath" to be impartial but who the hell is enforcing that oath? There is nothing (to my knowledge) stopping these Senators from giving oaths of impartiality then turning around and just straight up leaving the hearing while calling it a (1)>>"Democratic sham".Personal horror at the destruction of our democracy aside, from a political geek perspective I'm curious to see if Robert's tries to assert himself in his role as presiding over the trial.  The democratically controlled House of Representatives is likely to vote towards impeachment, and then it is passed to the Senate. The Senate has a Republican majority, so it may be unlikely it passes. If it does pass, then he is officially being impeached, and the process of an impeachment trial takes place. If I'm not wrong that we're at about Stage 1 of 4 in the holistic view of the process.   I know common wisdom is that its basically ceremonial, but he could potentially make a play with the judiciary backing him, especially given the egregious nature of McConnel's coordination with white house lawyers. (2)>> One side abhors partisan loyalty. That's why Dems always seem so disjointed and full of in-fighting. They value facts, and data, and a multitude of voices and opinions. That's also why the Dems will deride McConnell and the GOP's defense of Trump as partisan loyalty. It's the opposite of responsible governance and the antithesis of democracy. The other side, the GOP, loves partisan loyalty above all else, which is why they celebrate it and at the same time are so quick to attack any Dem who strays off message. They don't seem to understand that living in a place where you're allowed to be off-message is sort of the entire point of America.  (2.1)>>Investigating Biden , for Trump was a move that really helped expose both sides of our government tying send weapons to Ukraine.  Come Tuesday, the public will also be reintroduced to one of the most memorable Clinton impeachment figures —
Kenneth Starr, who oversaw the most contentious parts of the years long probe into the Democratic president’s behavior. Trump on Friday placed Starr on his legal team, with an eye toward the TV optics of having the legal nemesis of the last impeached president now on the other side, defending this impeached president.Starr is best known for leading an investigation into (3)>>President Bill Clinton's affair with a White House intern during the 1990s.The investigation was aggressive, lengthy, and offered a window into Starr's approach to holding the powerful to account. But in the years that followed the Clinton impeachment, a different type of scandal provided another picture of Starr's approach. There are two ways of looking at Starr’s contrasting approaches to Trump and Clinton – Trump innocent until proven guilty, Clinton guilty as hell so let’s find the evidence to prove it. You could say he’s just being a lawyer, or you could say the disparity leaves an acrid, partisan taste in the mouth. In this case, because Pelosi insisted that Trump was an immediate threat to America by remaining in office, she rushed Schiff and Nadler. As a consequence, the evidence they have gathered and the testimony is rather weak. Schumer is hoping to shore it up by adding witnesses, but frankly, it isn't the Senate job to prove the evidence for the House, and without a majority, Schumer will never get his way. It is my opinion that Pelosi's hold on the impeachment further weakens her argument that this was a time sensitive necessity, meaning (IMO) that she screwed  it by not allowing Schiff and Nadler to take more time. As a result, (again, my opinion) 
At the Center of it all : Meddling

Who Meddled in whose country ? WE have been bombed out in our news networks , we have had almost every politician[ includes Republicans too!]  From Nancy Pelosi and many of the Democratic Presidential candidates repeat the never ending fear mongering " Russia is planning to meddle in our election" . Russia -gate proved as much as Mueller's report wanted Americans to believe was a real "hoax"[ to a certain point] the frighting reality is we have our own government trying to scare would be voters from voting , by instilling in the idea that our election has been compromised by an "enemy government" . SO PEOPLE WILL NOT VOTE . Question . (4.1)>>In regards to Donald Trump calling the Ukrainian President , this too has been spun around . Our "media" followed the distorted facts with the notion that Trump was trying to get Ukraine to meddle in out upcoming election . While Trump's call was far from bribery , far from opposition research on Biden. (4.2)>>It helped expose our OWN GOVERNMENT meddling in another Country like Ukraine . Sending that country at American tax payer expense over a billion dollars in Military aide so it could fight Russia ? First of ALL . THE UNITED STATES is not at war with Russia , but our government's own interference in Ukraine has created tensions with Russia not like since the Cold War . But we have it all right out of the playbook of the 1950s bubbling up a new Red Scare , frighting Americans with the notion that Donald Trump is Putin's boy in Washington D.C. AS the impeachment trial moves forward , we will see more of our Government falling apart and being exposed . It seems many Americans are under the mistaken assumption that the moment Trump leaves office, things will return to normal. They won’t. If anything, the 2016 election let the devil out of the box—other actors in other nations surely took notice of the ease with which a handful of individuals in Ukraine were able to influence an American campaign.
Whistle blower  or Wiretapped ?
On March 4, 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote a series of posts on his Twitter account that accused former President Barack Obama of wiretapping his phones at his Trump Tower office late in the 2016 presidential campaign.  Could Trump have been "CORRECT?" . While as I said before , that Trump asking the Ukrainian President on the phone to get an investigation on a political rival is a bit "hawkish" . The other problem is the identity of the whistle - blower . Was there really one? I suspect that there NEVER WAS. I think that Donald Trump was being "monitored" by Democrats in the high swamp over some suspicions carried over from the   (4.3)>>failed Mueller fiasco Now, there are many commentators trying to differentiate what the still-anonymous whistle blower did in the current situation – going through internal whistle blower channels – from other whistle blowers who go to the press. While Trump’s “spy” comments were certainly shocking, in reality, they are actually not that far off from official justice department policy when dealing with whistle blowers who go to the press with classified information. But those people  are either being naive or purposefully misleading  Yes , Trump was spied on . Trump's "Perfect Phone Call" may have been what the Democrats could use to weaponize it against him .
 Failed Mueller fiasco  REDUX!
  The impeachment is all about Ukraine NOW . BUT the Democrats say they have new Mueller-related fodder .  (5)>>So is the whole "Trial" a rerun of Mueller ? YES ! The whole 3 years long Mueller Investigation is now rolled into a Ukraine quid pro quo. Recently ,House Judiciary Committee told a federal appeals court that congressional impeachment managers could use grand jury materials from former special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation in President Donald Trump’s Senate trial. The grand jury materials bear on both articles of impeachment, House lawyers wrote. One passage in Mueller’s final report pertains to the first article, abuse of power. That section concerns Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and allegations of Ukrainian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Trump asked the new Ukrainian administration to investigate those charges. Another section that piqued Democratic interest involves a peace plan for the Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia. The aim is now to get Trump on obstruction of justice. And attempt to remove him from the Presidency .  No Republican is likely to vote for impeaching Trump. It would be political suicide to do so. The Democrats have 233 Representatives and need 218 votes for a majority decision. They can afford a few abstentions but not too many.

 The Real Disruption of our "democracy" . 

With Just a year into the election .  Our own Democracy is compromised from within . You can't blame Russia . Of all the things that the Democrats could impeach President Trump over, the one thing they seized upon was the issue that had the most potential to blow back on them and destroy Joe Biden's chances of reaching the White House. I "foresee" that Biden wins the nomination of his party , he picks Warren or Amy as his VP . I don't see Trump out of office The idea to censure Trump and move on has been aired since mid 2017. The latest was Forbes.com bill whalen 26 September 2019 Link HOWEVER It's VARY STRANGE that we have an impeachment trial with the sole purpose to remove a President .just a year into an election .With such a trial to bring disarray into the Democrats' primary. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bennet are all senators and Democratic primary candidates. They would probably have to stop campaigning to attend the trials. Another leading Democratic candidate would be a top witness. The circus the Senate would open if the House votes for impeachment would play for many many months. The media would be full of this or that crime some Democrat or deep state actor supposedly committed. All this would play out during the election season. The Democrats are giving Trump the best campaign aid he could have wished for. Trump will again present himself as the victim of a witch hunt. He will again argue that he is the only one on the side of the people. That he alone stands with them against the bad politicians in Washington DC. Millions will believe him and support him on this. It will motivate them to vote for him.

NOTES AND COMMENTS:
(1)>>"Democratic sham". In fact, as numerous Republican critics of the process have pointed out, the whole thing stinks. The impeachment train has been warming up since January 20, 2017. The first story in The Washington Post on the possibility appeared online just about 20 minutes after he'd finished taking the oath of office. All the train needed was a destination and, with the allegation that the president withheld crucial military aid to Ukraine until it agreed to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter for corruption, it finally found one.The problem, as is becoming clear for the Democrats, is the lack of proof there was ever a quid, let alone a pro quo. Which is probably why they've stopped talking about things in those terms and are instead throwing around words like "bribery," saying "hearsay can be much better" than direct evidence and musing about whether the president exceeded his authority by firing the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine (spoiler alert: he didn't). They're adding to the sense of wrongdoing without offering, as of yet anyway, definitive proof it occurred because it's more important, for political purposes, to make the president look guilty than to prove he is. (2)>> One side abhors partisan loyalty.  One side has moved steadily leftward over the past decade, and many progressives are feverish with their own vision of tribal righteousness: identity politics. The escalation requires both sides to feed and perpetuate it. But only one side has turned a major political party over to an unapologetic leader who knows no limits. (2.1)>>Investigating Biden .  Another interesting Blog that presents the whole entire Joe Biden Hunter Biden fiasco in Ukraine is presented here from  Moon of Alabama shorturl.at/mptA4 ] "Several mainstream media have made claims that Joe Biden's intervention in the Ukraine and the Ukrainian interference in the U.S. election are "conspiracy theories" and "debunked". The public record proves them wrong. By ignoring or even contradicting the facts the media create an opening for Trump to rightfully accuse them of providing "fake news". (3)>>President Bill Clinton's.  Earlier this week, the California Democrat released a side-by-side chart illustrating the differences in how the two presidents handled their respective defenses. While Trump blocked the release of documents and testimony from a dozen key witnesses, including nine who got subpoenas, Clinton allowed his investigators full access to the materials they sought.(4.1)>>In regards to Donald Trump calling the Ukrainian President. The article from Politico states "they [Ukraine] helped Clinton’s allies research damaging information on Trump and his advisers, a Politico investigation found."The quote and article is in direct conflict with the premise that Ukraine did not meddle in the election. Now Trump wants Ukraine to look further into 2016 meddling and corruption. Ukrainian government officials tried to help Hillary Clinton and undermine Trump by publicly questioning his fitness for office. They also disseminated documents implicating a top Trump aide in corruption and suggested they were investigating the matter, only to back away after the election. And they helped Clinton’s allies research damaging information on Trump and his advisers, a Politico investigation found. "The FBI investigation into Manafort started in 2014, having nothing to do with the election. This investigation wasn't reported to the public until January 2019, so it was not used to impact the results of the election. Did Ukrainian officials provide damning info? Yes. However, it's not meddling in an election if they don't publicize it before the election. Remember that Clinton was a government official, and providing her information is a service to the US. In Trump's case, he traded US assets for an investigation. Note the "double standard"  A crime?    (4.2 )>>It helped expose our OWN GOVERNMENT .  Indeed, meddling in foreign politics is a great American pastime, and one that Clinton has some familiarity with. For more than 100 years, without any significant break, the U.S. has been doing whatever it can to influence the outcome of elections ― up to and including assassinating politicians it has found unfriendly. An Example here . At the beginning of Ms. Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State in 2009, the Honduran military ousted democratically elected President Manuel Zelaya in a coup d’etat. The United Nations condemned the military coup and the Organization of American States suspended Honduras from its membership, calling for Zelaya’s reinstatement. Instead of joining the international effort to isolate the new regime, Clinton’s State Department pushed for a new election and decided not to declare that a military coup had occurred. Clinton said that she didn’t want Zelaya returning to power. “Zelaya had friends and allies, not just in Honduras, but in some of the neighboring countries, like Nicaragua and that we could have had a terrible civil war that would have been just terrifying in its loss of life.” (4.3)>>failed Mueller fiasco Anyone who has doubted that the so-called Russia-gate scandal was nothing nothing but a fraud ginned-up by the Democrats, specifically by the Clinton wing of the party from day one, must be hopelessly stupid. Donald Trump's election to the Presidency, was in fact, the product of a gerrymandered House of Representatives, that gave individual congressional districts to the GOP, which in turn, assured Trump's election by the Electoral College, regardless of how the popular vote went. That is the reason why Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 presidential election, in addition to her being a lousy and arrogant campaigner. (5)>>So is the whole "Trial" a rerun of Mueller? Pro-impeachment Democrats, after all, were disappointed in April, when the former special counsel opted not to charge the president with a crime, after they’d spent two years hyping the Mueller report and its potentially incriminating conclusions. Making matters worse for the party, Attorney General William Barr publicly offered his own spin on the findings before Mueller ever addressed the public, giving the president room to claim a complete and total vindication that the report itself doesn’t support.