Could the Government Shutdown backfire???

The polls out out on this one . For President Donald Trump its not good , here are a few things to consider . We have a vary unstable stock market  that I predict for the next few weeks is going to have ups and downs , it looks fragile . (1)>>Can IT CRASH ?  (2)>>THE POLLS, blame President Donald Trump than congressional Democrats for the partial U.S. government shutdown, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday found, as lawmakers returned to Washington with no quick end to the shutdown in sight. AS in no end insight , it could be weeks before this is resolved . (3)>>Trump's plan is to hold the government hostage until his demands for the wall are met .  Trump argues that his wall is needed to stem illegal immigration and drugs entering the country - a key plank in his 2016 presidential campaign.   Seven percent of Americans blamed congressional Republicans.The shutdown was triggered by Trump's demand, largely opposed by Democrats and some Republicans, that taxpayers provide him with $5 billion to help pay for a wall he wants to build on the Mexican border. Its total estimated cost is $23 billion.Just 35 percent of those surveyed in the Reuters/Ipsos poll said they backed including money for the wall in a congressional spending bill. Only 25 percent said they supported Trump shutting down the government over the matter. The shutdown, now in its sixth day, has a had limited impact so far, partly due to vacations for the 800,000 federal workers affected.There are two hurdles in front of the off ramp. First, Trump and Democratic Senate leaders must come to an agreement that can also pass the GOP-led House. Once an agreement is reached, leaders may have to call lawmakers back to Washington, endure procedural delays in the Senate and get the bill to the president for his signature. As Trump suggested, a long shutdown is possible given the stakes. Trump ran for president on a promise to build the wall, and conservatives will blame him if he doesn't deliver. (4)>>Democrats are ardently opposed to the wall – which they note Trump said would be paid for by Mexico – and want to extract concessions before giving an inch.Early Saturday morning, Trump tweeted that “we are negotiating with the Democrats on desperately needed Border Security (Gangs, Drugs, Human Trafficking & more) but it could be a long stay.” Far from being disturbed by the prospect of hundreds of thousands of federal employees being furloughed for an indefinite period, Trump was revelling in setting the news agenda and the fact that he had torpedoed a compromise in the House of Representatives, thereby displaying his dominance over the G.O.P. leadership. Hours after the House passed a spending bill that included more than five billion dollars for his wall, he tweeted, “No matter what happens today in the Senate, Republican House Members should be very proud of themselves . . . I am very proud of you!” Turning his attention to a looming vote in the Senate, he added in yet another tweet early Friday morning, “Shutdown today if Democrats do not vote for Border Security!”With no immediate end to the shutdown in sight, Trump made his remarks during a surprise visit to Iraq and blamed the shutdown on Democrat Nancy Pelosi, who was expected to become speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives on Jan. 3.

We need BETTER Border Security .

There are a lot of polls , here is one
I found that shows a strong support
for the wall and the government
shutdown .

Border security is and has always been an important part of the debate on immigration policy. When it comes to border security and management, we need smart enforcement that is humane and transparent and takes into account the daily impact on the 15 million people who live along our borders. The truth is that there is a limited understanding of how many people attempt to cross the border illegally each year. A recent DHS report acknowledged this fact, pointing to substantial discrepancies between internal Border Patrol estimates of border crossings – which are based largely on the physical observations of agents – and a report commissioned by DHS that used statistical techniques based on survey responses and apprehensions data to estimate the overall flow of people across the border. While both methods appear to show that the Border Patrol has become more effective in identifying and apprehending illegal border crossers over time, the DHS report notes that they are still looking for ways to help better understand what the overall flow across the southwest border is. This is key, because without better estimates for the total number of crossings it is impossible to measure how successful U.S. border controls are.

BUT IS IT WORTH SHUTTING THE GOVERNMENT DOWN?
Politically, a shutdown over a wall would be far more disastrous than a shutdown over DACA. But still I would blame both Democrats and Republicans who for decades haw swept aside  immigration reform . Perhaps that Trump throwing the wrench , shutting the border will make both parties work for a sensible solution ???  Remember THAT It is a fence. A big one to be sure but still just a fence. The entire US government is more important than a mere fence. East Germany is known for erecting a wall. North Korea is known for the DMZ it patrols. The fence will not keep.people out nor will it keep people in. All it will do is snare a few votes for Trump from his base. People will go over, around or through the fence. Some will be stopped, some won't. Government shutdowns always lead to  some action. 

NOTES AND COMMENTS:

(1)>>Can IT CRASH ? The S&P 500 rose 3.1% from October 1 to October 16, 2013, the last time the government shut down after a debate about funding the Affordable Care Act left Capitol Hill at a standstill, according to data from LPL Research. The S&P 500 also saw marginal gains during shutdowns under the Clinton administration in 1995 and 1996 and during some shutdowns under Reagan and Carter.  Historically, the stock market has favored government shut downs.However, currently, the stock market has been complaining ever since the Dems won enough elections in November to take the House in January. This was the worst December for the stock market since around 1930. Plus, as the other person mentioned, people are playing around with the interest rates and that always makes the stock market go down.    That was the Dow’s worst Christmas Eve performance in its 122-year history. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index lost 2.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index didn’t fare any better, losing 2.2%. Needless to say, investors who were waiting for a Santa Rally didn’t get it. The shutdown in particular has been brutal for stocks — as the broader market is now in steep correction territory, if not a bear territory. It’s worth asking, aside from the increased volatility, what role will the shutdown play heading into 2019, assuming a resolution is not immediately reached? A government shutdown, as it sounds, is the closure of nonessential offices of the government. Because of lack of funding, federally-run operations will be forced to close and federal employees, unless considered ‘essential,’ won’t be allowed to work. And the government will operate using only cash reserves it has built up. But once that cash runs out, they too will also close.So, whether the government gets shut down or not, the market is in a precarious posture at this point in time. Moreover, it seems many who were not following our analysis about what the break of 2880SPX means to the market and did not see this potential drop coming are now trapped in their longs, wondering what to do, and hoping for a rally. Unfortunately, “hope” is probably the most dangerous four-letter word in an investor’s lexicon and the market may provide more pain to them before any rally is able to take hold.(2)>>THE POLLS, blame President Donald Trump .  However POLLS can be DECEIVING , So I recently added this figure. WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly 6 in 10 military veterans voted for Republican candidates in the November midterm elections, and a similar majority had positive views of President Donald Trump's leadership. But women, the fastest growing demographic group in the military, are defying that vote trend.That's according to AP VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 115,000 midterm voters — including more than 4,000 current and former service members — conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago. It found that veterans overall approved of Trump's job performance, showing high support for the president's handling of border security and his efforts to make the U.S. safer from terrorism.Male veterans were much more likely to approve of Trump than those who haven't served, 58 percent to 46 percent.   Contridicting that ~Forty-seven percent of adults hold Trump responsible, while 33 percent blame Democrats in Congress, according to the Dec. 21-25 poll, conducted mostly after the shutdown began   The president’s popularity has dropped below 40 percent amid what is now a six-day partial government shutdown over funding for Trump’s southern border wall, according to a poll from Morning Consult conducted from December 21 to 23. The last time Trump’s approval rating was this low was when he refused to condemn neo-Nazis after the white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in August 2017.Only 39 percent of registered voters approve of the president’s job performance during this shutdown, while 56 percent disapprove. However, Trump’s approval rating is split on party lines. Among Republicans, 80 percent approve of Trump; 90 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of independents disapprove of his performance, according to the survey of nearly 2,000 registered voters. Another poll from HuffPost and YouGov found only 36 percent of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the government shutdown.Americans disapprove of how Congress has handled the spending fight overall; however, Republicans are seeing more fallout. Only 26 percent of Americans approve of congressional Republicans’ handling of the shutdown, compared to Democrats’ 36 percent approval rating, according to the HuffPost poll.  (3)>>Trump's plan is to hold the government hostage until his demands for the wall are met .  “If Mexico’s going to pay for it, go negotiate with Mexico. Instead what he’s done is shut down the government and tried to stick the American taxpayer with a $5 billion ransom note to build a medieval border wall,” Democrat @RepJeffries says of Trump's proposed border wall. https://t.co/cPtscu0rWM   Government Shutdown set to extend into 2019 after US House, Senate adjourn .  Although both bodies of Congress returned to work on Thursday, the brief session signaled that little, if any, progress had been made toward settling a spending bill stalemate between Congress and the White House, which is demanding $5 billion to fund US President Donald Trump's vision of a border wall along the US' southern border with Mexico. The office of House Majority Whip Steve Scalise sent out a notice early Thursday, notifying members that "no votes are expected in the House this week." The notice went on to explain that a 24-hour notice would be given should things change.Its painfully obvious now that Trump bases his; policies, actions, reversals, ALL on how HE is portrayed.  (4)>>Democrats are ardently opposed to the wall –Democrats are so wholeheartedly against it. They voted for it in 2006. Then-Sen. Obama voted for it. Sen. Schumer voted for it. Sen. Clinton voted for it. So we don’t understand why Democrats are now playing politics . The Secure Fence Act of 2006, which was passed by a Republican Congress and signed by President George W. Bush, authorized about 700 miles of fencing along certain stretches of land between the border of the United States and Mexico. The act also authorized the use of more vehicle barriers, checkpoints and lighting to curb illegal immigration, and the use of advanced technology such as satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles.At the time the act was being considered, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer were all members of the Senate. (Schumer of New York is now the Senate minority leader.) Obama, Clinton, Schumer and 23 other Democratic senators voted in favor of the act when it passed in the Senate by a vote of 80 to 19.