Saturday, February 27, 2016

From Arnold to Donald. A fair warning !

Euphoria among some voters over the Donald Trump presidential campaign should come as no surprise to anyone closely familiar with California politics. Schwarzenegger and Trump  have a lot of similar characteristics. How they both got / will get elected. You have to blame the political mob : the voter. Although Trump was born in the U.S. of German-Scottish heritage and (1)>>Schwarzenegger immigrated here from Austria at age 21, they share strikingly similar backgrounds, styles and outlooks. I guess people are tired of the same old political establishments  There are troubling "resemblances" between Donald and Arnold   .It was absurdly obvious we had forgotten outright. Donald Trump already happened in California. It was  way back , Oct. 7, 12 years ago that California made history. For the first time, voters in the state went to the polls in a special election to oust the sitting governor and replace him. Not for the first time, Californians chose a former Hollywood actor for that privilege. Arnold Schwarzenegger went on to govern the state until January 2011.With the advent of Donald Trump's 2016 campaign, a lot of comparisons have been made to 2003. If a celebrity like Arnold can upend the establishment, the thinking seems to go, why not Donald? So take some fair warning .That year, California's incumbent (2)>>Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat, was pulled from office in a recall election. It was a time of disillusionment and cynicism toward the governor and government, amidst a poor economy and rising energy prices.Schwarzenegger had long held political aspirations. He was a wealthy man from his career as a bodybuilding celebrity, film star and businessman. He saw this as his opportunity and ran for the Republican nomination.He fell back on his movie persona as "The Terminator" to pitch California voters that, despite no political experience, he could go to Sacramento and kick "butts" and get the government in order.The ironic thing about Schwarzenegger's time in office is that he never bested any of the indicators Gray Davis was kicked out for. Every single metric Davis was criticized for, Schwarzenegger's numbers were worse. He blustered his way into office, and then failed to live up to his promises. (3)>> Darrell Issa, currently in Congress, used his personal fortune to bankroll the recall election in hopes of taking over as Governor. Unfortunately, Arnold stepped into the race at the last minute (actually making his decision and announcement on Jay Leno’s Tonight Show) and dominated the race almost all the way, even with numerous experienced and generally respected politicians running as well. Arnold skipped the first debate among the front-runners, but cleaned up in the second debate.Arnold had one thing the other candidates didn’t have – celebrity independent of politics. He had instant name recognition from the start, a popular persona generated by his movie roles, and often surprised his opponents (in politics and the media) by being relatively smart and well-versed in economics. Like Trump, Arnold had built a fortune in real estate, and was perceived as somewhat insulated from many of the normal lobbying pressures. He used a self-deprecating sense of humor to deflect many of the personal attacks launched on him by his more run-of-the-mill opponents. Gray Davis’ campaigns used a lot of negative advertising; this worked to some extent against similar politicians, but it boomeranged against Arnold.  So far, the analogy to Trump is similar .Mixing a blend of populism and hard-right scapegoating, Schwarzenegger as governor promoted moderate stands on the environment and gay marriage while savaging state employees with unpaid furloughs and threatening pay cuts in a failed effort to restore fiscal solvency and discipline. Trump, for his part, has sounded almost liberal when he has spoken about his early opposition to the Iraq War and his support for Social Security and Medicare, even as he has viciously targeted illegal immigration and Muslims as the cause of the country's many maladies.
How the Republican Party became the Party of NO.
The Arnold that Californian's elected later turned out to be thoroughly corrupt, I remember how Schwarzenegger would call the California  Democratic legislature "girly men"  , unlike the days when Davis was governor the state could not pass a budget on time , when Arnold came it just got worse . He wanted to solve problems by cutting, dismantling the California beaurcasy   It was like what you all see happening in Washington D.C. during the Obama years , the Republicans may have borrowed a line of obstructionism to the core to fight Obama , but the "tactic" originated here in California with Gov. Schwarzenegger . The term  "the party of No" was seeded here , was adopted .Now, Did Arnold’s business acumen transfer to being able to get political changes in California? No, but in truth, Arnold was up against a very large left wing force in California. Governance of the country will be easier for Trump than the job Arnold took on and failed in CA.The only comparison is the "celebrity" factor, whereas the pollsters can't truly gauge the turnout as there will likely be people voting who usually don't, and people crossing over from the Democrats to vote for someone like a Trump or a Schwarzenegger, who they already know outside of politics.The problem with Schwarzenegger is that he wasn't running on any sort of conservative platform, unlike Trump (i.e., fix the border once-and-for-all, temporarily halt Muslim immigration, fix waste and corruption, etc.) In other words, Trump ran on a Democrat-lite platform and couldn't implement it once in office, but Trump is running on a Republican base platform (cementing core support from the Republican Party base voters).But Schwarzenegger was able to get himself elected as a Republican in a state with 60%+ Democrat majority. Frankly speaking  ( my theory is ) that Schwarzenegger may have been in part because of his celebrity status part of a rigged election to get a republican elected in a state that in majority is Democrat . It worked. Political leadership is not like running a business. Business is a dictatorship. In government, even the president is limited in power. You can’t summon those who are not cooperating and say, “You’re fired.”Worse, Trump’s business record shows he loves to use government power to advance personal interests.  Mr. Schwarzenegger has primarily used the image (like Trump).  that he so carefully cultivated during his body-building career and movie career to demonstrate his bona fides as a tough guy and therefore prove his eligibility for an executive position (like governor).Comparisons of Trump  with Schwarzenegger are alarmingly similar. The latter brought California a hollow government, with little results. Trump’s less-than-optimistic style could similarly take us in the wrong direction, if not into a national disaster.His bullying style brings out divisiveness and hatred. He is a narcissist. He is vindictive. He appears to be emotionally insecure. He is all bark and no specifics. He is admired for his celebrity status and wealth, yet, we know money is a poor measuring stick for character. Remember that  Schwarzenegger said  he decided to run in part to change politics. But his party was in power nationally, and was never  receptive to change. 

TRUMP- Christie Presidency ? .
There are lots of consperacy theories about the latest fiasco in our government politics . Indeed, Donald Trump seems eager to alienate sane voters by embracing conspiracy theories wherever he can find them.  Christie's announcement took many by surprise. Christie's former presidential campaign finance director, Ray Washburne, simply told Politico, " I am shocked." Taken aback by Christie's support, people are grappling to explain why the New Jersey governor is giving a stamp of approval to Trump as prominent members of his party have stepped up efforts to rally the troops around Sen. Marco Rubio in time for Super Tuesday. This endorsement is a slap in the face of the mainstream GOP .Just a few weeks ago, Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), raised a bizarre conspiracy theory. As the Miami congressman told a local radio show, maybe Donald Trump’s entire presidential campaign is an elaborate scheme – cooked up by Democrats – to make Republicans look ridiculous and undermine the GOP. I am not surprised that in reality the Republican "party" is secretly endorsing Trump At this stage of the primary campaign, the Republican Party’s interest lies in weeding out the weak candidates and testing the strong ones to see who can stand up to tough questions,So for the next eight or nine months until Republicans have their nominee. In the longer term, Christie's support equips Trump with a powerful and outspoken surrogate who can match the former reality star's tart tongue and, like him, can inflame a media narrative critical of his opponents.Trump accompanied his rollout of Christie with a stream of invective against Rubio, reflecting the raised stakes ahead of Super Tuesday and the scorched-earth duel now raging between them.

So why are you Crazy for TRUMP ,  rejected MITT ROMNEY ?
Will Mitt Romney soon endorse Trump?
Look American's Trump is a billionaire , a lot less "poorer" ( yet still wealthy though) remember Mitt Romney? We had the 99% er's against the 1% er's way back in 2012 . The Occupy movement was certainly motived against Wall Street , and against Mitt Romney .Trump won't necessarily fix the GOP's image as the party of the rich. The public opinion has changed. Romney was (4)>>shy about his wealth, which made the media very curious. Everywhere Romney campaigned, journalists wanted to know: How could he relate to the everyday Americans whose votes he sought? Let's not forget, Trump endorsed Romney early on in the last nominating cycle (early February 2012 after Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina).  Its vary strange to me that comparing Mitt's wealth margin was a big deal , while Trump is clean slate with the avverge Joe. Romney could have done wonders for this country but he refused to be outspoken like Trump. The obvious answer, of course, is that Trump appears to connect with regular people very well. The evidence is even quantifiable: Americans without college degrees and those earning less than $50,000 per year help form the foundation of his campaign. He does much better with them than with rich and more-educated people like himself.Romney, on the other hand, fared better on the higher ends of the income and education scales — from the earliest days of the campaign to the first primary states and all the way to the general election. There’s plenty of anecdotal proof, too. Just look at the enthusiastic crowds Trump gets in working-class communities; Romney never connected with this demographic.Something about Trump seems to make people say, “Hey, if I struck it rich, I’d be a lot like him.” Romney never possessed that quality. As polling has shown consistently, Donald Trump tends to do better among voters with lower incomes than he does among those with higher incomes. This is true of education as well: In the New Hampshire primary, Trump won 23 percent of the votes of those with a post-graduate degree, but 46 percent of those with only a high school degree or less. He's the closest thing the GOP has found to a candidate of the common man in a long time. Romney wants to keep his toe in the tub to keep testing the waters. And after doing this, Mitt fumbled around on the national stage and lost the most winnable election of modern times... even though the GOP leadership and the media told us Romney was the "most electable".
(1)>>Schwarzenegger.  Arnold's legacy , The Cato Institute, which issues a bi-annual Fiscal Report Card on America's governors, grading them A to F on their fiscal performances, awarded Schwarzenegger a D in his final years as California's governor.Here's Cato's summary of Schwarzenegger's governorship: "Schwarzenegger has made some reforms to California government, but he will be handing over a giant economic and fiscal mess to the next governor. State unemployment is over 12 percent, the state's pension system has massive funding gaps, and the state's bond debt has exploded. According to Moody's, California's state debt soared from 2.5 percent of state income when Schwarzenegger came to office in 2003 to 4.4 percent in 2009. The rising debt is a looming threat to state taxpayers, yet California's personal, corporate, and capital gains tax rates are already some of the highest in the nation." (2)>>Gov. Gray Davis. Gray Davis was touted as “perhaps the best-trained governor-in-waiting California has ever produced.”, due to his position for years as Jerry Brown’s Chief of Staff (during Jerry’s first and second terms in the ‘70’s and ‘80’s), and his subsequent positions in state government (Legislature, Controller, Lt. Governor). He easily won election over Atty.Gen. Dan Lungren in 1998, and almost as easily over William Simon Jr. in 2002. During his first term, he benefited from a state budget surplus which he used to greatly expand various social programs. However, his second-term campaign was marred by the end of the dot-com boom and by the electricity crisis (which only later brought down Enron), which was exacerbated by his agreement to unwise long-term energy contracts. Having spent the temporary state surplus on ongoing programs, his later years saw the state facing large deficits as tax receipts fell. He was known as a policy wonk, whose personal charisma was reputed to reflect his name. He also reportedly engaged in “pay for play” practices, which often favored behind-the-scenes donors. He was perceived as corrupt, even if not prosecutable. (3)>>Darrell Issa. In 2003, Issa led the effort to recall California Governor Gray Davis. (Davis was undone by the energy crisis which crippled the Golden State thanks in large part to market manipulation by Enron.)  But part two of the Issa plan - to capture the Governor's office himself - abruptly ran aground when Arnold Schwarzenegger decided to get in the race.  Darrell Issa helped the  election of Schwarzenegger to replace Davis sent shock waves through the political establishment. A recall of a sitting governor had only happened once in the country’s history (1921 in North Dakota).Even though Schwarzenegger had mixed success building on his early popularity and some of his programs alienated conservative supporters, those behind the original recall say they have no regrets. (4)>>shy about his wealthSo how much are we talking about?Trump was 153rd on the Forbes magazine's list last year of the richest people in America, with a net worth of $2.4 billion. Most of his money comes from real estate.Romney, former CEO of Bain & Co., was worth between $190 million and $250 million, based on a personal financial disclosure form he filled out in advance of the 2008 presidential campaign. In that race, Romney spent $45 million of his own money. On Fox News Channel on Wednesday, Romney raised an issue with which he is well-acquainted, calling on Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio to release their back taxes. Though Romney gave lip service to the other Republican candidates, it became clear that Trump was the intended target of Romney’s remarks:“We have good reason to believe there’s a bombshell in Donald Trump’s taxes […] Either he’s not anywhere near as wealthy as he says he is or he hasn’t been paying the kind of taxes we would expect him to pay, or perhaps he hasn’t been giving money to the vets or the disabled like he’s been telling us he’s been doing.”Romney makes for a strange messenger on this issue, having steadfastly declined similar calls to release his own tax returns during his 2012 presidential bid. (Romney eventually did release his returns.)

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