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| LARRY ELDER and ROBERT F KENNEDY threw their bids for the 2024 Election . Praying that it’s not Biden vs Trump again. but it's also .... DEJAVU |
NOTES AND COMMENTS :
(1)>>This is going to be another confusing election coming up. I asked an AI what the 2024 election results will look like. The results are pretty confusing. LOOMING on the horizon is a lot factors. Tensions with China , a much heated war with Russia . CHINA INVADES TAIWAN after US TROOPS are deployed , Right in the Middle of a Presidential election year could throw the country into a panic . Ignoring current polling and merely going off of recently electoral trends, it would appear that Donald Trump faces an uphill battle as the presumptive 2024 GOP candidate. He narrowly won 2016 against an (in hindsight) unpopular Democratic challenger, he lost 2020 even as an incumbent, and Republicans generally underperformed in the 2022 midterms. In 2024, he will likely still be embroiled in various political and legal scandals, as well as no longer have his incumbent advantage. Additionally, if the US economy is able to tame inflation and avert a major recession, Biden will have considerable wind at his back as Americans simply want to maintain the status quo.Despite all of this, it appears that Trump and the GOP are going full steam ahead with their plan to run Trump and oppose all manner of Dem policy. In order to envision a Trump win, what things would need to happen? What strategies would Trump and the GOP need to employ to defeat Biden as the presumptive Dem nominee? What missteps would the Democrats need to make? Which states would most likely be the tipping points and how/why would they flip from 2020?(2)>>TRUMP V. DESANTIS . The more they fight, the harder they fail. Even if Desantis somehow gets the nomination, Trump won’t go quietly. He will siphon off enough voters to make the general a joke. If you really think the current situation is comparable to 2016, I don’t really know what to tell you. Abortion is being banned left and right, schools are banning books. Trump got demolished in 2020. Even DeSantis is avoiding talking about abortion because he knows it’s toxic to any aspirations he has. It’s a different world now.Trump got lucky. The country learned from that mistake by overwhelmingly voting for Biden. Yeah, but he's very unelectable outside of Florida, where he currently has a super majority to pass all of these batshit crazy laws. To say nothing of his crazy unpopular policies, he's just a straight up weirdo who has difficulty maintaining eye contact and lying about things like where he was on 9/11. He is untested with the national media and on the national debate stage (if Republicans ever have a debate again). He didn't even perform well in his gubernatorial debate with Charlie Crist. The difference is no Democrat will vote for Trump nor DeSantis. Kyrsten Sinema is a whole other monster: 8% (I believe) approval with Democrats. She will attract some Republican voters to, especially against an extreme candidate. AZ is also a somewhat blue state, so as long as there’s not a huge disparity between Dems and Reps voting for Sinema, Gallego should win, albeit more narrowly than Dems would like. because DeSantis and Trump are extremely close to each other while Sinema is branding herself as a centrist independent in between both partiesit's like having a 1, 3, 6 and then a 1, 5, 6 if you get my example, with Dems being the 1 in both scenarios. (2.1)>>Kennedy is a name that resonates with old school Democrats . What are the likely or potential impacts on his entry to the race? The DNC has not yet committed to primary debates, does RFK make them more or less likely? Biden has still not announced that he's running, will this affect his decision?RFK's positions on Covid arguably appeal more to certain independents and GOP voters than the Democratic primary base, so might we see cross-over primary voters? Will the GOP or people in Trump world try to promote him for their own purposes such as weakening Biden, like the Clinton campaign did with Trump in their 'pied piper' strategy?25-30 years ago a Kennedy namesake mounting a presidential bid would have generated a lot of buzz. A lot of people were still around who recalled fondly the whole "Camelot" era. But nowadays the family has largely faded as a political force, outside of perhaps Massachusetts. And even then, RFK Jr. doesn't even have the support of most of his family in his quixotic run. (2.2>>RFK wasn't that kind of man, as he was mostly dedicated to civil rights and jobs, things that couldn't and wouldn't happen because of the parties. SO WILL BE DEJAVU ???This is one of these questions I think about a lot. I think RFK would have been a great president, better even than his brother.First, I think RFK learns from JFK's relationship with Johnson, and chooses a running mate who's much closer to him ideologically: maybe someone like Eugene McCarthy or Al Gore Sr. Nixon still runs, out of spite for the Kennedys, more than anything else. Wallace does marginally better in the south, maybe picking up South Carolina, but RFK takes California and Florida and cleans up in the rust belt for the win.RFK does not escalate the war like Nixon, and the war is just about wrapped up by 1970. Domestically, RFK follows a moderate-liberal path, with an emphasis on the environment (establishes some form of the EPA), reform of the legal system (more money for courts, more public defenders, more treatment programs/alternative sentencing, blanket pardon of draft dodgers and many arrested protesters) and urban/poverty issues.RFK wins reelection in 1972 on the platform of ending the war, against George Romney (his anti Vietnam positions look a lot better in this timeline--and RFK being a New York "moderate" pretty much knocks out Rockefeller.) I don't know enough about Soviet history to say what their reaction would be to RFK, but I believe he would have tried to start summits with Brezhnev. By 1976, the Dem party has been in power for 16 straight years, and ends up being blamed (fairly or unfairly) for much of the problems with America. A slow economy, the collapse of South Vietnam and high oil also burden the party. As much as President Kennedy is personally liked and admired, it's almost impossible for the Dems to keep the White House. Ronald Reagan wins in the "California election" against Jerry Brown. The 80's begin four years early. RFK ends up a popular, well-liked former president with his own charitable organization--the Kennedy Foundation. (3)>>Marianne Williamson for the Biggest Bat-Shit Crazy Grifter Prize. People downvoting this aren’t paying attention. Marianne Williamson is one of the most cogent, compassionate, and ethical voices amongst political public figures today. Seriously go check out her Twitter or check her out on YouTube and see what she has to say before jumping on the bandwagon. She is a better progressive than most of the progressives in congress. She outlasted Kamala Harris. Harris suspended her primary campaign on Dec 3, 2019. Williamson didn't suspend until January 10, 2020.Mariam said that on CNN during interview: Guy was like side eye, ““You really think the DNC is “rigging” the election for Biden?”” She responded, “They’re not even hiding it!” And she went on to explain the obvious, including the DNC not wanting debates with Biden.Yeah, but the corporate media have to do that whole predictable "Here we go -- another fringe nut-job who doesn't have a prayer! See, everyone? She's bonkers! Who would waste a vote on this paranoid loon?!" pantomime. Meanwhile, the DNC keep stacking the deck... She also supports Medicare for all, she understands that 40,000 people die each year because they are either under insured or not insured at all. I have a personal story on this I worked of a mobile urgent care client, it was basically a call center I have talked to a lot of the employees and many of them feel desensitized because they answer around 20-50 calls a day talking to people who are terrified because they don’t have insurance, they would if they had money opt for the self pay, or they would often cry because they couldn’t afford the self pay which was $200. Marianne also supports peace ☮️ ✌️ not war. Joe Biden should be called Drone Strike Biden. Hope your New Year is well. Peace be with you on your journey to love.❤️. (4)>>Larry Elder is seen by basically everybody. Larry Elder - This one makes the most sense probably. After running for governor in California, he shows he isn't afraid to get into the real politics of it all outside of being a commentator. He is a black man (staving off the racist argument against Trump). He is very well-known and agrees with Trump on mostly everything. Only problem is that he's planning on his own presidential bid and one time refused to be labeled a Trump supporter specifically (as opposed to simply a "Republican").Larry Elder lost the recall because he was too conservative for independents in California. You don't go from solid blue CA to red in one election especially with the governor's office. Republicans should have coalesced around Kevin Faulconer who was a true moderate that ruled over blue San Diego quite successfully. If CA Republicans want any shot at high office in CA, they need to rally the pissed off guys in the middle, and believe me, there are a lot of us. (5)>>Should Biden run. I wouldn't be so confident. Biden won the election but had small margins of victory in key swing states, with Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin all having a margin of victory that was less than 1%. Considering the state of the economy and a likely drop in turnout, a 2016 style victory is very plausible for Donald Trump in 2024. I’ve been looking at the prospective 2024 GOP candidates. They include Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo.Do any of these people have even a fraction of Trumps appeal? Hate to say it, but Trump won in 2016 because he represented much of what normal GOPrs want. They liked his attitude and his ability to communicate in short, aggrieved spurts.He has the unique ability to make himself look persecuted and mistreated and ability to insinuate that he sympathizes with whatever grievance or mistreatment his supporters may have suffered. Depending on who you ask though, he despises his most fervent uneducated supporters and wouldn’t permit them within a mile of Mar a Lago.He did great in 2020. He won the typical razor thin Ohio and Florida by comfortably margins and got more votes than any Republican president in history.Biden won, but not by a tremendous amount. If you ask me, Biden is the only one of the Dem candidates in 2020 who could have won. Could Warren, Sanders or Harris have sealed the deal? I don’t think so!Is Trump the present and future of the GOP? I'm not saying Trump is a shoo-in to win in 2024, Trump has weaknesses as a candidate in 2024 too but I think this sub is underestimating his chances.
