![]() |
| The IMPACT of the War with Iran, still is speculation . The longer it lasts , the economic situation could get worse . |
Trump did not believe Iran would do it. They knew it was a possibility,
but through some unexplainable fucking reason Trump and his
administration did not see it as a genuine thing Iran would do. It's
actually insane. Now they're stuck in a war that they can't just declare
mission accomplished on, even if they back out now Iran is unlikely to
just back off themselves.This fuck up is generational, and will go down
in history. Now that fact of the matter is if Russia and China see this stupid war as an opportunity to hurt the U.S. while helping themselves..why would they not take it? Tactically it makes sense for China to support Iran here. If the US gets bogged down in the Persian Gulf and deploys a bulk of their Naval and ammunition resources there, then that gives China the opportunity to take back Taiwan with minimal initial outside response. The US already set the precedent with supporting Ukraine with weapons systems. Of course China would take that reasoning and run with it. There is no way they "underestimated" this, way to many smart people that work in many parts of the government, especially the intelligence community. What really happened here and we won't hear the inside scoop for a while is that they disregarded everything the experts said and didn't care about the consequences. Just saw a former secretary of the air force talk about how for decades every single war game and strategy paper that dealt with a conflict with Iran assumed the Strait of Hormuz would be shut down quickly with the inevitable global economic consequences. This basically universally understood outcome meant that previous administrations always factored it in and usually sought not provoke Iran too much for fear of it happening. Only Trump his band of idiots couldn't see this coming. If the analysis were to include global geopolitics, the risks are a bit higher and less predictable but it still appears rather unlikely. The major power struggle is one perspective - but neither Russia nor China appear to want to get deeply involved regardless of what the US or Iran does.The regional powers perspective is that if Iran goes crazy and starts attempting to destroy oil production in the Gulf, it will simply open itself up to massive and unconstrained retaliation. This could result in terrible outcomes multi tens of thousands of lives lost in Iran per week followed by famine and civic breakdown. It definitely could. If oil production is impacted significantly, many countries could suffer rolling blackouts- Taiwan, China, Japan for instance. If that disrupts semiconductor manufacturing, the effects would roll downstream causing factories all over to slow, delay or stop production. Layoffs in America or China could then trigger personal credit collapse in America and bank collapse in China. By bombing civilian targets the US will achieve the exact opposite of a regime change. People will rally behind one flag to defend their families, their homeland against foreign invaders. Looking at historical evidence bombardments will not cause an uprsing. The only evil countries in this situaiton are clearly America and Israel who not only illegally attacked Iran but also openly commit war crimes. Excluding the Western bubble, Iran has the moral high ground here and every right to defend themselves. Shipping is already avoiding Strait of Hormuz, so I'd say the impact is pretty fucking obvious. Explains why the US took over the Venezuela oil industry: we would have our own western hemisphere accessible oil reserve. Of course we're not capable of processing that kind of oil right now, but hey, can't have people looking at the Epstein files... I may probably be in a very small minority when I say that I think what's happening right now is a 1914 moment in terms of its importance,in the sense that a series of events have been started that will lead to a global restructuring of sorts.I can't really substantiate this view,so take this with a pinch of salt.I'm curious if I'll be proven wrong(most likely) or whether I intuited something in advance. This sounds reasonable but doesn't seem to take the Strait being closed for a significant time into account. I'm with you that it won't trigger a 08 style crash, but it could lead to a pretty harsh recession or depression world wide.






