(1)>>Biden WILL LOSE the 2024 election regardless which Republican faces him on that day . [ TRUMP or DESANTIS]. The LEFT isn't fucking responsible for Biden being president. The Democratic party -- AKA the moderate party, because we have no left party in the USA -- fucked the American people and the American left two elections in a row, intentionally keeping good candidates and good policy out of the running because they didn't want it.The left is not responsible for Biden. The left is not responsible for milquetoast bullshit policy that doesn't help people. So far we can't trust the Polls , but many Democrats don't want him to run. A majority of Democrats now think one term is plenty for President Joe Biden, despite his insistence that he plans to seek reelection in 2024.That’s according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research that shows just 37% of Democrats say they want him to seek a second term, down from 52% in the weeks before last year’s midterm elections. (2)>>BESIDES these "polls" , the shadow of the economy , worst off for the Biden Administration is the Ukraine war . NOT to mention if the democrats get crushed in the midterms, Trump will have lots of talking points about how the democrats didn't do anything from 2022 to 2024. The reason they didn't get anything done won't matter at that point. (2.1)>>Trump running and winning again is a very real possibility and isn't nearly as far-fetched as it sounds. (2.2)>>The Ukraine war is probably the worst blunder the United States ever got itself into , since like the last two wars in Iraq & Afghanistan . Connecting Ukraine to the American economic recession is very strong . Think the CEILING DEBT , how much of spending is being sent to Ukraine .When President Biden made a secret trip to Ukraine marking the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he declared that the United States is going to back Ukraine as long as it takes. He basically set himself for a huge election backlash . (3)>>AS LONG AS the WAR keeps going , escalates , the American public will have enough of it before 2024 . Biden announced a half a billion dollars of additional assistance to Ukraine including the delivery of "artillery ammunition, anti-armor systems, and air surveillance radars to help protect the Ukrainian people from aerial bombardments."But after Congress appropriated more than $112 billion in military and economic support in the space of a single year — and with no signs of an end to the conflict — polls show a growing number of Americans feel the United States is giving Ukraine too much. (4)>>The WAR is also impacting the American economy . Ukraine and Russia are key suppliers of several commodities that have become scarce due to the war. The shortage of these commodities has led to substantial price increases (Figure 3). How does this trend play out over time? Comparing price change percentages up to June and August of 2022 shows that percentages have decreased for most commodities. A reasonable explanation for this phenomenon could be that the immediate shock and panic of the initial months post invasion has neutralized over time. Supply chains have been disrupted at the source, in transit, and at destination. It becomes important, therefore, to measure the impact of these disruptions on the U.S. economy, and determine which commodities are likely to be in short supply as a result. In economic terms, the Russian invasion of Ukraine represents a negative supply shock, an event that interrupts production and raises prices. Assuming the conflict doesn’t spread outside Ukraine by 2024 , the supply shock (5)>>likely be big enough to derail the U.S. economy, which expanded rapidly in 2021 even as oil prices rose sharply without any assistance from Russia. The main thing driving Biden's unpopularity now seems to be inflation. It's partially the economy "overheating", partially energy prices driven by Russia/Ukraine, partially China locking down. But these factors might not persist by 2024, and in particular domestic energy production is ramping up. You say Biden won't accomplish much with a Republican Congress, but "accomplishing a lot" isn't how he'll be judged, "whether people think the country's doing better" is. If Biden never passes another bill but inflation resolves over time, then people will think the country's doing better. On the flipside if Biden passes a huge bill and things get worse, nobody who is on the fence will say "things are bad but at least he passed a big bill".
NOTES AND COMMENTS: (1)>>Biden WILL LOSE the 2024 election regardless which Republican faces him on that day. If he loses it will be because of his failures as a president.High gas prices, high inflation, he bombed children on his way out of Afghanistan, not only failed to shut down covid but it increased under him (he promised to shut it down). The southern border is a mess, dumping cash into a corrupt country that was investigating his son, he lied about his involvement in Hunters laptop, crime is out of control, failure to pass voter ID. He is clueless about china and tried funneling money to special interest groups during recovery which had to be stopped by court order. Biden is the least hated politician in an extremely polarized country. Everyone prefers their candidate compared to Biden whether it's Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, etc.. When it's Biden vs. a hypothetical person, Biden isn't popular. But when there is an actual name on the opponent, people prefer Biden. The White House and the president have maintained he plans to seek reelection in 2024, but Biden — who turns 80 later this month — is already the oldest president in history . Biden’s rocky performance during much of the State of the Union — the mumbly delivery, the sentences smooshed together, the inappropriate affect, the slightly off ad-libs — made it clear that he is running on fumes. On the other hand, having now achieved a lifelong ambition at an advanced age, he has the willpower to try to bulldog through his diminished capacity.You have to be 35 to run for President, so there's already a precedent for an age-related cap. Something like 60-65 (you know, RETIREMENT age) should disqualify you as well - for ALL public offices. (2)>>BESIDES these "polls" , the shadow of the economy , worst off for the Biden Administration is the Ukraine war. President Biden on Thursday unveiled a 2024 budget proposal that revived his calls for massive new social spending and tax hikes on the rich, foreshadowing his presidential campaign and challenging Republicans ahead of a looming fiscal showdown. RIGHT NOW the spending for domestic issues has crashed , morphed into more spending for Ukraine . $1.7 trillion government funding bill that includes $47 billion in additional aid for Ukraine . AGAIN BIden's budget is screwy . How can cut the deficit , increase taxes , while spending more on war? Biden’s budget would also raise more revenue by increasing taxes on oil and gas companies, hiking the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% imposed under former President Donald Trump but below the pre-2017 35% tax, and allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices.Looming over the budget release is the unresolved standoff over whether to lift the debt ceiling. The White House has maintained it will not negotiate over the debt limit, arguing Congress should act to raise it as it has done numerous times over past decades. House Republicans, led by Speaker Kevin McCarthy, have tried to tie the debt ceiling to future spending, saying they will not budge without promises to cut expenses. The debt ceiling, however, pertains to existing spending. To date, House Republicans have been murky on what expenses they would like to see cut.At home, the ripple effects of the war have led to food shortages, higher prices and restricted supply chains while Ukrainian pleas for military aid have put Biden’s belief in bipartisanship to the test.(2.1)>>Trump running and winning again is a very real possibility .Trump maintains a loyal, enthusiastic base that unsettles even some of the most traditional Republicans in Congress. Since leaving the White House, he has maintained a robust political operation and continues to conduct campaign-style rallies across the country.The problem for Republicans is clear. Trump remains popular with significant elements of the party’s base, even as he is anathema to many voters in the broader electorate. Voters made that point dramatically last year. In several key GOP-primary contests, Trump successfully promoted his election-denying acolytes over more mainstream alternatives.Just because Biden won doesn't mean this is over people. You had 70 million people vote for Trump. They are gonna show up in the mid terms and in 4 years. Biden needs to succeed in these four years and really dwindle trumps voters to very little.If Democrats don’t pass a legislative agenda that benefits working Americans, and Trump can stay alive and out of prison, he will be perfectly positioned to legitimately challenge for the White House in 2024.(2.2)>>The Ukraine war is probably the worst blunder the United States ever got itself into , since like the last two wars in Iraq & Afghanistan . Now, in the rapidly changing landscape of the Ukraine war, we are seeing ominous signs that the U.S. may be leading NATO in the direction of an even worse strategic humiliation — one that can result in a dramatic reconfiguration of the world’s geopolitical structure. The European leaders carefully adhered to the Biden administration’s policy by insisting “they were not pressing Mr. Zelensky to accept a peace deal with Moscow,” according to the Times. But, as reflected in the palpable disappointment of the Ukrainians, the EU’s key leaders were clearly signaling the limits of their own support. That in turn raises the prospect for a drawn-out global cold war with not only Russia but China as well. And it is one that could easily turn hot, Beebe said, with the United States and its allies faced off against an alliance of “a resource-rich Russia partnered with a technologically and economically powerful China.” (3)>>AS LONG AS the WAR keeps going , escalates , the American public will have enough of it before 2024 . Biden's support for the war was probably his achilles heal that led to his unpopularity , him either dropping out of the race , or losing the 2024 election .A new poll suggests that many Americans are growing weary as the US government continues its support of Ukraine in its war with Russia and want to see diplomatic efforts to end the war if aid is to continue. I mean the US has straight up overthrown multiple democratically elected leaders in other countries via cia backed coups just to benefit American interests why would Russia trust anything they have to say either ? BESIDES the COSTS of the war is staggering , its shaking the markets here in the U.S. and the world. And lol $150 billion is NOT cheap. This war was totally unnecessary. Everything was fine in Ukraine in 2013. From 2014 to today things got worse somehow. It's a shame to see the warmongering idiocy of our American government under Biden . Remember too that Janet Yellen flew to Ukraine to give Zalenskey another blank check against American tax payer interests . Again before the costs of the war bankrupt America , or start a world war.There haven't been any negotiations between the U.S and Russia in the last six months, because officials such as Anthony Blinken are committed to a "do not engage" strategy, where they do everything to avoid communicating to their counterparts. I propose that our officials should abandon this strategy because it gets us nowhere, and to actually try and identify points of compromise that can bring the war to an end.(4)>>The WAR is also impacting the American economy . Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have an important impact on the US economic and political outlook this year. US trade with Russia and Ukraine is minimal, but the war will fuel already high inflation and slow growth in consumer spending.An oil shock set off by the invasion sent average gasoline prices above $5 a gallon nationally in June, before they fell steadily in July and August.In the year to come, that price cap and other efforts to manage the war’s global fallout should be Mr. Biden’s primary economic focus.Mr. Biden will need to find ways to shield American markets from the war’s effects, including new international initiatives to bolster food supplies and ward off a potentially cascading financial crisis in developing nations.Mr. Biden’s biggest economic decisions in the coming months are related to the war: how best to support Ukraine’s resistance to the Russian invasion and how aggressively to push for an end to the fighting. Biden's economic plans cut out any hopes for Americans who are burden with high cost of inflation .(4)>>The WAR is also impacting the American economy . The International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have cut their forecasts for global growth next year, citing lingering drags from the Russian invasion. The president has few domestic options if those plans fail. Because his party lost control of the House, Mr. Biden will almost certainly be limited in his ability to push new economic measures through Congress over the next two years.Mr. Biden insists the American economy, with a labor market that continues to add jobs at a hot pace, is well positioned to endure any new drags on the global economy from the invasion. The topic emerged as a leading issue in the US mid-term elections in Q4 last year, with the US having contributed more than $24bn in military support to Ukraine, although the breakdown of direct assistance versus recapitalisation of US munitions stocks and armoured vehicle fleets is unknown.(5)>>likely be big enough to derail the U.S. economy. U.S. stocks ended lower this [ as of March 9th] Friday, booking their worst annual losses since 2008, as tax-loss harvesting along with anxieties about the outlook for corporate profits and the U.S. consumer took their toll…Americans are falling behind in Biden’s economy with low-paying jobs, 40-year-high inflation, and a loss in the value of their net assets due to inflation pushing prices to record highs.And yet at a time like that, instead of refocussing and rebuilding the American economy and prosperity for middle class people, instead of focusing on securing our own border, which is absolutely out of control, where a tsunami of tresspassers continue to pour into this country…instead we are projecting overseas.
