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| November 8th is here & and the RED WAVE and and the half is Near ! |
REPUBLICANS GAIN BIG IN 2022 AD ???
Biden is still very unpopular, the economy is not very good, and Rs are winning most of the top issues (1.)>>besides abortion, but that's declining in importance for voters and only at #3 or so. (1)>>If the expectations are Dems keep the senate because muh November, than those were misinformed expectations in the first place.A hallmark of midterm elections is that those in or leaning toward the party of a sitting president are lethargic, complacent, or at least a little disappointed, and less likely to vote in the general election. True to form, that is the situation Democrats had going into this past summer.Just look at the exceedingly poor shape our country is in.... inflation (40 year high); southern border (300 plus Americans will die today because of fentanyl); historically high crime rates in nearly every large city (14 police officers were shot in just 4 days last week); energy "dependence" (when we were "independent"); Afghanistan; and the list goes on. Is it truly any wonder why Americans want a change, a very big change?Yes I know I’m late by a Anyway here’s my insane ramblings. Generic Ballot/House: The biggest change in my predictions has been the House, a Dem LOSE about 10 seats from last month. Now I have the GB at about R+4, the reason is undecideds breaking Republican as they did in 2020. The polls have it about tied, (538 at D+1, which is laughable, RCP has it even) with Dems at about 47% of the vote. Assuming most vote goes for GOP and accounting for Indies and 3rd parties that should be R+4-5.Ask about any congressional district you want. (2)>>Democratic optimism has faded — at least somewhat. Numbers for some Senate candidates who had been polling strikingly well, like (3)>>John Fetterman in Pennsylvania and Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin, have come back down to Earth. Some blue state governor’s contests now seem unexpectedly competitive. Polls show gas prices and inflation are on many voters’ minds again, and that abortion is fading somewhat as an issue. And more pundits are saying Republicans are gaining an advantage. Fetterman didn’t do so hot in the Dem primary debates, and that was before his stroke. After his stroke it’ll only be worse. Look at some videos of him on the campaign trail. He is not energetic. (3)>> Oz is a TV guy that has sold products before. He knows how to make the case to people. Plus even if Fetterman doesn’t do debates that looks bad on his part. Either way its a loss for Fetterman.Fetterman’s only hope to win is if he wins Trumpers. Oz would lose narrowly. But he can make it up. “But polling tho” most polls have the Dem base beyond Fetterman, Oz winning independents, but not having the full Republican base behind him. Also With Trump doing rallies in the state that’ll help get his supporters behind him. He’s also not as alienating to suburbanites, especially moms, because he’s been a moderate Republican on TV for years.The debates, if there are any, I would argue help Oz.
KARI LAKE WINS ARIZONA . (Just MAYBE 😋 )
Arizona has voted for Republican presidential candidates in every election since 1952, with two exceptions: Bill Clinton’s 1996 win and Biden’s 2020 win.If Lake wins the governorship, Democrats anticipate that her future endorsements will be sought after, that she will be giving fiery speeches around the country, and that she will have a standing invitation on Fox News. (4)>>A Lake win is by no means a lock. She’s ahead of Democrat Katie Hobbs by just 1.6 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average. Still, given the general political environment and how it is tilting further toward the Republicans, she’s clearly in a strong position.Win or lose, there’s no doubt that a major political talent has emerged. Lake is the latest in a line of female champions of a grass-roots conservative populism that runs from Phyllis Schlafly to Sarah Palin to Marjorie Taylor Greene, spanning the 1950s to today.If Lake wins in November, the stakes are clear: Her administration will oversee elections in a swing state that will help decide the next president of the United States. Lake is among those who could end up riding high because of her closeness to Trump, only to find it doesn’t play among a larger electorate. Republicans in Arizona say she will have to reach beyond MAGA diehards and embrace moderates in the state if she is going to win against Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs.
A RED WAVE ???
In 2016, Trump’s win shocked the world. In 2020, a seeming Democratic romp turned into a nail-biter. And now, as the 2022 midterms are drawing nearer, polls show Democrats performing surprisingly decently — (5)>>pointing toward a close election with a possible the long-expected GOP wave.Unless, of course, the polls are just underestimating Republicans again. Just because the electorate skews older in midterms doesn't mean that it favors Republicans to the extent that they have a huge advantage. Boomers for instance actually lean Democratic. But there are various factor to the outcomes to mid-term elections. The OP presented one that is STABLE -- meaning regardless of other factors, the GOP has that advantage. The other major factor is what you suggested...the party of the incumbent president often does worse. But as now what happened was mentioned, that affects both parties equally ---- thus it is unstable because it changes due to who is president. So when the President is not on the ballot in the midterm elections, those "presidential election only" voters stay home, and the inflated popularity that President's party enjoyed two years earlier vanishes, especially in swing states where president-only voters are more likely to turn out. The result is a high likelihood of the President's opposition party picking up governorships and seats in Congress. Democratic strategists are now trying to keep voters, donors and volunteers from losing their nerve. Though there is wide agreement that the environment has deteriorated in recent weeks. (6)>> Inflation. Gas prices. Taxes. Cost of living affects us all, and Democrats will be punished for failing to lower that cost across the country. They have failed for years now, and public opinion tells us only one thing: Americans are fed up. The democrats aren't acting like people worried about a election coming up? They act like they know something..repeat of 2020 maybe?Everyone still needs to vote so at least we know we did everything we could do...
"Half" PART of ......CALIFORNIA.
The 2022 midterm elections are quickly approaching, and Republicans have an uphill battle in their attempt to disrupt the (7)>>Democrat supermajority in California There’s only two choices across the board for the election (Red And Blue). California is the most free thinking state you would think there would be a third party. CALIFORNIA is perhaps , hopefully gong RED RIGHT ? &n NOPE !!! AS it appears again , (8)>>Gov. Gavin Newsom has his hands in the cookie jar , but everything else in California underneath is RED . Cautionary .😁😅🤣🤣😂😅😁 "California is the most free thinking state" 😁😆😅🤣😂🤣😅😆😁. The most free thinking state?I mean, as long as you tightly follow the regressive mantra of the left, then yes, "free thinking" is a thing.If you truly use your brains, they will call you all the isms and ists.Is it not weird that the "tolerant" faction has no space for alternative ideas? (8.1)>>Now California and Prop 1 , which would codify Abortion in the California Constitution for me is a NO VOTE . Hopefully a majority of the people of that state will vote NO on this, . There is vary little detail on this CA constitutional amendment on abortion . Troubling part is that California has been pushing abortion right up to birth , instead of pushing for improving the states healthcare system for women . And it is California where Democrats once more turn in hopes of salvaging their hang-by-a-fingernail control of the House, or at least minimizing their losses on (9)>>Nov. 8. Republicans need to flip just five seats nationwide to take control and usher Speaker Nancy Pelosi into retirement. Analyzing Democrats’ chances of holding the house is far more difficult, with 435 seats spread over fifty states and district lines having been redrawn after the 2020 census. If Democrats can flip Republican-majority Alaska, though, more purplish districts could swing blue, too. The Republicans need only flip five seats nationwide to take control, but Democrats have chances to flip seats, too, including several in California. When California’s districts were redrawn after the 2020 census, many were shifted into entirely separate regions from the ones they encompassed in the previous decade, and many turned bluer. Overall, given the slender Democratic margins in California , it would be interesting to see the state flip to red .Democrats know they will lose in some of the state’s most targeted races. (10)>>Californians continue to be punished by Democrat politicians who champion radical policies. Their failed agenda has led to an affordability crisis, ever-increasing gas taxes, surging crime and rampant homelessness. Just recently, we even descended into a recession, while inflation sits at a 40-year high.
The Democrats may just lose 2022 .
The (11)>>Democrats have to stop acting like the fraidy-cat party and actually do something risky and bold—like introduce universal health, child, and elder care along with free college education for all Americans.The failure of Democratic leaders to recognize the costs of letting the progressive left set the Democratic agenda has been considerable. Given the number of folks who are confronted daily with serious crime, the association of the phrase “defund the police” with the Democratic Party (though Biden himself never said it), has undoubtedly damaged the party’s electoral chances. The Democratic Party of roughly 1928-1988 no longer exists on a national level. What has emerged under the Clintons and Obama is a new party that pays mere lip service to the old.No level or faction of the party is exempted, including the so-called (12)>>Squad that has caved dismally on every issue. Big corporate influence completely controls the party.Electronic censorship has their full support, as Elon Musk's moves to possibly free up the speech on Twitter are condemned universally in party ranks.Only on the state and local levels in some parts of the country can one sometimes see the old party dynamic in action. On national issues, not at all. The Democrats were once known for their free-wheeling, open debate (though corporate interests never actually lost control except for a brief time in the Roosevelt administration), and the Republicans were known as the party of top-down regimentation. The two parties have now reversed in this respect. A candidate such as Bernie Sanders, who may have actually won the 2016 nominating process if it had been carried out fairly, has NO CHANCE for the nomination. He knows this, and is now limited to small initiatives on the margins. The same situation exists for Tulsi Gabbard, who may be turning Republican, and even for Elizabeth Warren. (13)>>A Democratic Congress DID NOT ENACT ONE ITEM of the Build Back Better agenda (which if the Democrats were smart, would have been named the Green New Deal). Even worse, the Democrats have cut back the limited programs Congress enacted at the beginning of Covid--child tax relief, higher unemployment benefits, supplementary checks that the national treasury can easily afford. This at a time when inflation is devastating workers' incomes.The voting public will consequently see the Democrats, correctly, as cutters rather than expanders of needed benefits. Remember that Obama's number one issue as President was a "grand bargain" to trim Social Security.And they are militarists. Biden's one good action in office, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, has been almost unanimously condemned by the party and its media outlets, often with the wimpy logic, seen in this publication too, that "the withdrawal wasn't carried out in the right way." They are more hawkish on Ukraine than most Republicans and may yet lead us to World War III while avoiding all talk of a negotiated peace.The public is disgusted by the Democrats' failure to do anything for their daily lives and scant pocketbooks, and scared on a primal level by their (14)>>hawkish policy on Ukraine. This will not end well for the party.
NOTES AND COMMENTS:
(1.)>>besides abortion, but that's declining in importance for voters . Abortion seems to be the only thing that the Democrats seem to cling to ,,,,but on a thread .Funding and protection of medicare and social security, workers rights, reducing drug prices, climate change funding, continued funding of Ukraine ??? Abortion is according to some polls the least important thing . With the economy so bad right now the Dem's have a catch 22 situation . But while voters begin casting their ballots in the final stretch leading up to election day, some have begun to question the strategy.Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont in an op-ed published in the Guardian on Monday outlined that although he has a “lifetime 100% pro-choice voting record,” he believes that Democrats may be relying too heavily on the issue, while failing to fend off Republican messaging on the economy. (1.2)>>If the expectations are Dems keep the senate because muh November. It very much seems to me that they are doing their best to try to discourage people from voting. I am so disgusted by and tired of skewed media coverage that on the surface looks reasonable. If a Republican candidate is behind by five to six points, it's reported that they're polling within the margin. Flip the scenario and have the Democrat behind and that's exactly how they report it. Big deals are made over "expert polls" where fewer than five people per state were included. (I'm looking at you, NYT.) I would hope that we all learn to vary our news sources and look behind the headlines for the truth, because it's never given to us straight anymore. Like so many facets of American life, big business has made profitability the focus of the news media, not actual reporting. (2)>>Democratic optimism has faded. With prices increasing across the board, drivers still pay around $4 per gallon on average for regular unleaded gasoline. Heating oil is even more expensive. From food to household goods, the COVID-19 economy is destroying everyday purchasing power. Yet, thus far, the administration seems unwilling to or incapable of prioritizing the economy at all. Biden officials routinely downplay the inflation crisis, describing it as “temporary” despite many months of evidence to the contrary. Of course, they’re not the only culprits: The mainstream media similarly downplays the inflation problem, devoting disproportionate amounts of time to Ukraine and COVID-19 when they are less concerning to most Americans. As polling expert Nate Silver recently pointed out, news outlets ignore “cost-of-living” stories more often than they should, presumably to cover for the Democrat in office.When even California liberals are complaining about sky-high gas prices, you know that Democrats are in trouble. (Defying logic yet again, however, California Democrats have actually proposed a new tax on gas suppliers, which will inevitably be passed down to consumers.)If you read the tea leaves, 2022 and 2024 will not bode well for Biden, Whitmer and other Democrats. Pocketbook issues always matter most to American voters, and they’ve never mattered more than now, as we exit a pandemic and cope with its long-term economic repercussions. (3)>>John Fetterman. Fetterman continues to insist that he’s gotten a clean bill of health from his physician, the same one he ignored five years ago when told of a serious heart condition that might lead to a stroke. He keeps pointing to a letter from that doctor, a letter that is almost six months old, as proof that he’s fine. But he’s not fine. Even if he’s not entirely of sound body, why should that affect if I vote for him in the general? I chose someone else in the primary because of it, but between him and Oz the choice would be clear regardless of what was wrong with him physically. I was listening to Conan O'Brien's podcast and he had Luke Wilson on and Idiocracy came up and Luke said he thinks Camacho would be a good president because he cares about the people and listens to the smartest man in the world to actually try and fix shit, so we are actually in a worse timeline than Idiocracy. And the media have thrown their full support behind the guy by refusing to insist on those records and instead spinning a narrative that critiques of his health are bigoted, cruel and partisan. And that was a depressing realization.(3)>> Oz is a TV guy that has sold products before. Oz's campaign is running ads that Fetterman is someone who aligns himself with Bernie Sanders that wants to increase taxes and received money until he was 49. The intention of these ads is to try and convince Moderate Democrats that Fetterman is too extreme.Policy wise most Conservative Democrats will align more with Fetterman than Oz but Fetterman's campaign is being run so poorly that Oz's messaging is eating away at Fetterman's lead. If Oz uses the upcoming debate to paint Fetterman as a socialist we're going to be in for a close election.At the end of the day Pennsylvania is a purple Commonwealth if someone seems to be too far from the middle of the political spectrum it hurts them (Shapiro and Mastriano is a perfect example.(4)>>A Lake win is by no means a lock. She’s ahead of Democrat Katie Hobbs . Keri Lake win could change the outcome of future. If Lake wins, she instantly has to be at the top of Trump’s potential VP list. Lake is in a neck-and-neck race in Arizona, but she arguably has a better chance than any other famous Trump endorsee this cycle. Her Democratic opponent, the current Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, is a remarkably dull candidate who has refused to debate Lake, calling her a “conspiracy theorist.” If Lake wins in November, the stakes are clear: Her administration will oversee elections in a swing state that will help decide the next president of the United States.(5)>>pointing toward a close election with a possible the long-expected GOP wave. Republicans’ chances in the House have risen that high because the forecast expects the final margin to be even better for Republicans than the generic-ballot polls currently suggest. The forecast projects that, on average, Republicans will win the national popular vote for the House by 4.0 points.Republicans need to win only a handful of seats to take over the House of Representatives, which Democrats now control by a narrow margin of 220-212. But with two weeks until the election, Republicans are looking to run up the score and win a more expansive — and governable —majority by vying for districts in Democratic bastions, including in Rhode Island, which has not sent a Republican to Congress for nearly three decades.The president’s party almost always does poorly in midterm elections, and early in the year, it looked like that trend would hold true in 2022. (6)>> Inflation. Gas prices. Taxes. Cost of living affects us all. U.S. President Joe Biden's hopes that his party would head into the midterm elections with inflation receding were dashed when the final report ahead of the November vote showed prices rising more than expected.The report could hurt Biden and his Democrats, who are hoping to retain control of Congress and must convince voters deeply concerned about high prices that they are the ones who can help drive inflation down, even as it occurred under their watch.Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. According to a RealClearPolitics polling average, 57.9 per cent of Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, while just 38.9 per cent approve, a critical weakness that has left Democrats with a strong chance of losing control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate.(7)>>Democrat supermajority in California. What’s most interesting is that Democrats always control the early vote, which is why they have pushed and implemented a month of early voting ahead of Election Day across the country. What is telling is that much of the media is refusing to cover the issues most important to California voters – escalating crime, inflation and the plunging economy, public education, high energy costs – and they aren’t covering the governor’s race between Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom and challenger Republican Sen. Brian Dahle, or even the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Sen. Alex Padilla and challenger Republican Mark Meuser. (8)>>Gov. Gavin Newsom has his hands in the cookie jar. The Republican party has written California off. Seriously.For example, Newsome was able to run a fake campaign against Elder and Jenner and pretend he was super popular in the recall because the party didn’t support ANY candidate, even reasonably serious ones. They don’t help in downstream races, either. That’s how you get a progressive super-majority in a state with wide swaths that despise progressives. They’ve also changed election laws making it that much harder for anyone other than Democrats to stay on the ballot past the primaries. Once they had the power, they solidified it. Newsom was able to run a fake campaign against Elder and Jenner and pretend he was super popular in the recall because the party didn’t support ANY candidate, even reasonably serious ones. They put all that effort into getting the recall on the ballot, and then when the election came around and they were asked again and again who their recommendation was to replace Gavin . . . crickets. (8.1)>>Now California and Prop 1 , which would codify Abortion in the California Constitution for me is a NO VOTE . "can the Democrats manage to stop saying abortion long enough to talk about things that people may also care about?" Yeah will probably help this a bit this midterm but they really need to tone it down majorly after the midterms. The independent voters I know care very little about it and democrats can only stay motivated about this so long. Women who view killing off their children as a career and life planning method are already Democrat LVs. The millions of women making up the pro life movement generally vote Republican. Both of these groups combined make up a minority of voters.The majority of voters are far more concerned about being able to provide for themselves and their families as the Biden inflation ravages their income and savings. In the immortal words of Team Clinton - Its the economy, stupid! (9)>>Nov. 8. Republicans need to flip just five seats nationwide to take control and usher Speaker Nancy Pelosi into retirement. California’s Republican “party” leadership are lazy and uninterested! Sen Dahle has raised less than $1M – all in small donations – nothing from the elite “grand ol’ party”. Sadly, the debate was typical of leftist media and Brian Dahle ended up debating the moderators as much as debating Newsom, and smarmy Gavin was prepared, as always.Until California gets rid of the “jungle primary” and unless Republican leadership drops the snobby elitist attitude this state is doomed to ruin by leftist Democrat policies. Kevin McCarthy needs to pay more attention to California and less attention to DC politics.As much as I would like to hope that California will return to political sanity I’m afraid that isn’t possible in the foreseeable future. The majority of elected officials in this state are wholly owned toadies of the public employee unions. There is no mechanism to undue that stranglehold and consequently there will be no change. (10)>>Californians continue to be punished by Democrat politicians who champion radical policies.California is also a radical state, radical Senate Democrats scrambled to pass extreme and authoritarian climate legislation to ban fuel Cars Let’s start with California taxes. Yes, they are high. California taxes are known for being among the highest in the country. Homelessness in California has surged at alarming rates in recent years. At over 150,000 homeless citizens, the “Golden State” has the largest homeless population in the nation. California’s homeless population accounts for 22% of the total U.S homeless population. Gas prices shot up a jaw-dropping 49.6%, with California snagging the title of the nation’s most expensive market. Nearing 7 dollars in most places . The rising cost of living presents a challenge for Gov. Gavin Newsom, who touted California’s economic prowess. California’s cost of living is well above the national average, and car insurance costs are no exception. On average, Californians pay at least $246 more for car insurance each year than most Americans. I don't think I can reasonably afford a house in a nice area in So Cal.. at least, not without having 2-3 roommates to help pay the mortgage lol.Skyrocketing inflation doesn't help either! Only 4% inflation rate was budgeted for DoD in FY-22, the actual inflation has reached above 9%. That's essentially a 5% cut in buying power. Coupled with food and gas prices increase here in SoCal - 40% to 50% higher than last year. Double whammy! We are screwed! Where can we get more money? (11)>>Democrats have to stop acting like the fraidy-cat party .The primary issues Democrat candidates seem to be running on are Trump and abortion. Their misguided policies have failed and left a trail of carnage that does not allow them to talk about anything else. Democrat candidates and their sycophants in the media are slowly coming to grips with the possibility of a red tsunami. Assuming that's the case, anticipate the prevailing Dem narrative focusing on Trump/abortion to pivot to a new (old) narrative the U.S is a racist country and the 2022 election results are the result of white racism/white vote fraud/minority voter suppression. The feel good politics of the Biden Administration is not about economic health, which is a key factor in everyone's lives. the public can sense that financially and socially we have gone off the rails with a sense of foreboding for the future.if the Democrats get back into office Nov 7, the market will collapse shortly thereafter. This has been an experiment that failed to deliver what each citizen wants -- safety, security and and an optimistic sense for the future.(12)>>Squad that has caved dismally on every issue. The "squad" is designed to be a distraction from the fact that the the US dems (just as the reps) serve the bourgoise status-quo first, last and always. so-called "Squad," once a dominant theme for vast numbers of elected Democrats, is backfiring big-time on the party in power, top Democrats tell us.So, another mutation of lame duck liberalism, as you already suspected. AOC doesn't advocate for any systemic change from capitalism, just for reforms that could be easily undone when the GOP inevitably retakes power. And even on this front she is a failure because she votes on the Democrat line more often than not, even when it is against the things she advocates for. At best she is completely ineffective at accomplishing her goals, at worst an opportunist who only cares about her political career.(13)>>A Democratic Congress DID NOT ENACT ONE ITEM of the Build Back Better agenda.Democrats gambled that the public would reward them for moving quickly on the Build Back Better agenda. Many individual items enjoy strong support from the public, including proposals to slash health insurance premiums and extend an ambitious expansion of the child tax credit, which was already being framed as a tax cut for the middle class. Democrats, coupled with unanimous Republican opposition, gummed up the deal-making process in a way that Joe Biden the candidate said he was uniquely suited to surmount, but in practice as president could not.But their ambitions came to an abrupt skid late last year, when Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) announced he couldn’t support the latest iteration of the bill. Because no Republicans support the bill and because Democrats have a very narrow Senate majority, all 50 members of the caucus need to be on board to pass it via a process known as budget reconciliation. And Democrats are still struggling to piece together a bill that could get this degree of support, given longstanding opposition from holdouts like Manchin. (14)>>hawkish policy on Ukraine. The Democrats are not the Party of America first . The Proxy war in Ukraine illustrates that Biden and Democrats in Charge can quickly sign 80 billion dollars to fund a war against Russia but not spend a dime to help Americans .lawmakers have agreed to include $12 billion — $4.5 billion for weapons and equipment, and $2.7 for military, intelligence, and other defense support, plus another $4.5 billion to keep the Ukrainian government running for another quarter.Meanwhile, Democrats’ attention seems to be focused elsewhere, on a completely different potential stumbling block: Ukraine !But critics say there has been little visible oversight in Washington of the money already spent, whether it is getting to where it needs to go, or being used effectively by the forces that need it.The word is that the Democrats are unified behind the new aid package (recall no Democrat in either the House or Senate voted against the $40 billion measure in May). Republicans, on the other hand represent the potential opposition, with 11 GOP senators and 57 House Republicans dissenting on that same vote. Pumping more money increases inflation. So does spending massive amounts of money. The aid does have a limit. Which is why Europe needs to help even more. the US is dwarfing everyone in aid. You know another stimulus check isn’t happening.. it’s not even a top issue like student loans and that has not been figured out yet because the Courts stopped it.This was my exact reaction; Ukraine doesn’t belong to the US and we’re not empowered to negotiate their future. Even so reckless spending ! This sub is full of absolutely INSANE warmongering Americans that genuinely believe that American funneling millions of dollars into a proxy war with Russia will yield anything but disaster. The American empire is crumbling around us and instead of our government to invest in the people of this country, they are throwing away the money in endless wars abroad. We're doomed.
