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| Trump is not going away . The next 4 years , a new movement is going to shift American politics . |
(1)>>CPAC event that made a little history . As America prepares for the transition from the tumultuous era of Donald Trump to what many hope would be a more sedate and serious Presidency of Joe Biden, Donald Trump won a Straw Poll that show that only 68 % want him back. Donald Trump took to the stage on Sunday evening at the Conservative Political Action Conference being held in Orlando amid questions over the former president's political future. That he may (2)>>run for president a third time in 2024, and said the Supreme Court “should be ashamed of themselves” for refusing to overturn President Biden’s victory.Trump spoke for well over an hour, after arriving more than an hour late, at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, Fla. He said that Republicans should join together to make sure that the Democrats lose the presidency “decisively.” “Actually they just lost the White House,” he said, recycling the lie that spurred an armed mob to storm the Capitol on Jan. 6, leading to five deaths and Trump’s second impeachment. “Who knows, I may even decide to beat them for a third time.”He went on to announce that he would carry on working to get Republicans elected who stand with his wing of the party. He told the crowd that the (3)>>Republican party will take over Congress in 2022 and then teased the audience one last time, saying that "a Republican president will make a triumphant return to the White House and I wonder who that will be?"The crowd at the Hyatt Regency Orlando then chanted “You won.” Trump said the Supreme Court “should be ashamed of themselves for what they’ve done to our country… They didn’t have the guts or the courage to make the right decision.”
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| King Trump @ CPAC |
The Future of the Republican Party?
(6)>>We have seen several years worth of discord within the Republican Party leading up to Trump . But interestingly enough they were starting to realize that the GOP actually did well and that Trump lost on his own. It’s going to be an interesting few years to see whether the GOP realize that if Trump was less trumpy then he probably would have won. It will also be interesting to see whether these politicians who are doubling down on Trumpism either thrive or start to drown. The big unanswered question I have is whether the voters Trump motivated to come out (something like 10 million people) were energized by that particular kind of Trumpy energy, and if that energy will always generate more anti-Trumpy voters, making it a net negative even if it boosts turnout.And we should probably be even more methodical than that. Is Trump's appeal to them based on a specific vein (showmanship, misogyny, retroflection, racism, authoritarianism, etc.), or is it really an alchemy that can't be workshopped by a subsequent Trump-imitator? The answer is certainly extremely complicated, with possibly unique answers among every Trump voter.The party will adapt, as American political parties are wont to do. The notion that the Republican party will cease to exist is absurd, especially in historical context. Just in the last 50 years, (7)>>the Republican party has undergone two significant "revolutions" (under (7.1)>>Goldwater and Reagan) and the Democratic party has gone through at least as many.What that revolution will entail is entirely speculation. In my personal opinion, the "wing nuts" and "religious extremists" that Reddit likes to get so vitriolic about are too much of a minority to dominate the next revolution. I think the party will focus itself around the one issue that both clearly differentiates it from the Democratic party and that is not socially divisive: fiscal conservatism. There is a very important place in American politics for a fiscally conservative party - fiscal issues might just be the most important to Americans as a whole.
The "Subsequent" Return of Donald Trump 2021- 2024 AD.
Multiple times throughout the 90-minute speech, Trump hinted at a third bid for the presidency, drawing massive cheers from the crowd of conservative activists who convened for the three-day gathering in Orlando, Fla. He also insisted he defeated Biden in November, a repetition of the falsehood that is helping Trump and his allies raise hundreds of millions of dollars in donations. There’s something very appropriate about a Trump-Trump ticket in 2024; there would be no brand dilution at all. And the idea of a dynastic ticket would give the 45th president time to choose among Junior, Ivanka, and the budding politician Lara, leaving Mike Pence mulling the price of his one moment of independence. (8)>>The Trump legacy will continue to haunt Mr. Biden long after his
predecessor has left the White House. It is possible that for all of Mr.
Biden’s rhetoric, his next four years if he lasts long enough, he would be spent trying to get out
of Mr. Trump’s shadow, both at home and abroad ..It was hardly the repudiation of Trumpism
that many had hoped for. It leaves the 74-year-old ex-president intact as the dominant figure in his party, an albatross
around the neck of every Republican. There has been no better
illustration than their awkward complicity with Trump’s refusal to
accept the election result. BUT TRUMP has so many options , (9)>>the next tree years we will see Trump on TV and yes, still holding rallies .
NOTES AND COMMENTS:
(1)>>CPAC event that made a little history . The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) is the country's largest meeting of conservative activists and politicians, and usually gives insight into the direction of the Republican Party. The mood of the conference in Orlando - which began on Thursday - has been extremely pro-Trump, with loyalists including Texas Senator Ted Cruz and his son Donald Trump Jr among the speakers. The former president remains banned from social media platforms, including Facebook and Twitter, over his response to January's deadly riot at the US Capitol.Most former presidents generally take a step back from the political limelight once leaving office, but Trump doesn’t seem likely to do that. That means, in many ways, the next four years could be another Trump-fueled media cycle: centered on divisions within the GOP, with questions about how they affect Democrats’ strategy and, of course, how much the media should (or shouldn’t) be covering Trump. (2)>>run for president a third time in 2024. 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial Presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.Despite his election loss to Biden, recent polling shows that Trump
has managed to hold onto his base of supporters. In a recent USA
Today/Suffolk poll, 46 percent of Trump voters said they would leave the
GOP to join the former president's new party if he creates one, while
just 27 percent would remain. Trump assured the CPAC audience on
Sunday that he will remain a Republican as he continues to fight for his
America First agenda. "We will win. We will not be starting new
parties. We have the Republican Party. I am not starting a new party.
That was fake news," he said.(3)>>Republican party will take over Congress in 2022. Biden and Harris face odds . If Joe Biden survives his health in decline , we might end up with Harris as President . I will write about this in regards to the year 2022 . BUT , Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can
already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward
path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically
go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the
out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since
every seat is up for election. On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.Far ahead the country is in a lot of trouble , with the possible demise of Joe Biden , Harris as "President" a totally inexperienced person may end up as unpopular . (4)>>But Donald J. Trump was never a normal president. As New York Times political reporter Alexander Burns points out, "Never has such an untested and unlikely candidate captured the presidency, and no one in modern times has entered the office with his plans for governing so uncertain." It's easy to forget that Trump really didn't lay out any substantive policy plans during his more-than-year-long presidential run.For critics, this poses a conundrum. Too often they deal with Trump as if he is a normal politician, constrained by the usual conventions, including embarrassment at being caught in a lie. But Trump is not a normal politician.(5)>>he won CPAC's presidential straw poll with the support of 55 percent . In the poll on Sunday, 55 per cent of respondents said they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary.rump masterfully consolidated Republican voters into a cult of personality. His hardcore supporters were willing to believe anything that left his lips, regardless of evidence to the contrary. That non-trivial group of Republican and Republican-leaning voters is not going away, and they remain loyal not to the party but to Donald Trump. It remains to be seen exactly how large this group is, how much power they will wield in Republican primaries and whether a non-Trumpublican candidate can consolidate the remainder of the party. (6)>>We have seen several years worth of discord within the Republican Party leading up to Trump . May 8, 2016 should have been seen as a "warning" to the Republican Party . Trump’s warning was his latest affront to Republicans who have urged him to adopt a more cooperative and unifying tone. And it amounted to an extraordinary escalation in tensions between the party’s presumptive nominee and its highest-ranking officeholder.In a series of television interviews that aired . Mr. Trump demonstrated little interest in making peace with party leaders like Mr. Ryan who have called on him to more convincingly lay out his commitment to the issues and ideas that have animated the conservative movement for the last generation.“I’m going to do what I have to do — I have millions of people that voted for me,” Mr. Trump said on ABC’s “This Week, 2016 .” “So I have to stay true to my principles also. And I’m a conservative, but don’t forget, this is called the Republican Party. It’s not called the Conservative Party.”But the Republican Party is a club, and the rules are the rules, unwritten though they are. When the party appears headed toward selecting a nominee, the party closes ranks around that person, for better or worse. Trump unleashed his criticism of the GOP’s congressional leadership in a series of tweets that also included a rebuke of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for his inability to get the Senate to repeal the Obama health care law. The harsh posts were fresh evidence of the president’s fraying relations with fellow Republicans just when the White House and Capitol Hill most need to be working in sync. (7)>>the Republican party has undergone two significant "revolutions" . The Reagan Revolution began in the 80s. Ronald Reagan at his first press conference as president in January of 1981, a mere nine days after his inauguration. The assembled press corps quite audibly gasped.What was being witnessed that day was the beginning of what came to be called the “Reagan Revolution,” a revolution that brought sweeping, transformational change to Washington and the way the establishment of the day did business in both foreign and domestic policy. Washington was not happy.Reagan and wielded enormous power over conservative politics as Trump was trying to do the same .(7.1)>>Goldwater. In the 1960s, Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz.) spearheaded its push into hard-line fiscal conservatism, swearing to curtail government programs whenever and wherever possible. Two decades later, under President Ronald Reagan, the party established its preference for religious liberty over civil rights to curry favor with evangelicals and social conservatives.Today’s GOP continues to uphold the divisionary social conservatism that began under Reagan while adhering to Goldwater’s extreme distaste for government spending. The 2016 election saw a lurch to the right bear significant fruit. He began to shake the political establishment. Vary much like Reagan and Trump . A bespectacled, articulate figure, Goldwater was a fierce anti-communist and a critic of labor unions and the welfare state. Why did Reagan, whose speech seemed very much in the spirit of Goldwater’s campaign, create such a sensation? How did he succeed where Goldwater failed?(8)>>The Trump legacy will continue to haunt Mr. Biden long after his predecessor has left the White House. Four years from now if Joe Biden survives , is not replaced by Kamala Harris .Mr. Biden, as much as he would have liked, will neither have complete autonomy from his predecessor nor a clean slate from which his policy options might emerge. He will have to respond to an America which Donald Trump has transformed, for better or for worse, and he will have an international environment, which, too, has been changed in the last few years, partly by Mr. Trump’s policy choices and partly by the strategic realities evolving at an unprecedented speed. This will have grave implications for Mr. Biden’s foreign policy approach as well. In a number of his foreign policy statements, Mr. Biden has, not surprisingly, harked back to Obama-era policies. But the world has moved on and it is not readily evident if the Obama-era template can actually work in a world fundamentally disrupted by forces that post-dated Mr. Obama — Mr. Trump is only one of them. The shadow of Trump will make it's own stamp felt for while . The idea of a shadow leader, common in parliamentary systems such as the UK where the opposition party receives public money to set up an office to hold the government to account, is unheard of in the US. (9)>>the next tree years we will see Trump on TV. We all know that Trump loves Television Trump TV was first mentioned in 2016 when Hillary Clinton’s presidential win seemed all but certain. The Trump camp began laying the groundwork for a cable channel loosely based on the Facebook Live. Besides the TV interviews on FOX , the rallies . The showman will be back , not about beauty pageants . Trump’s potency as a TV attraction has been proved by the ratings performance of cable news networks, which have covered his presidency as a saga unfolding in real time with volatility, surprises and a large cast of characters. Audience levels for CNN, Fox News and MSNBC have risen since Trump officially entered his first presidential race in 2015 and reached record levels last year. If Trump really did run for president in 2015 primarily to bolster his brand and generate publicity—if he truly did think his long-shot candidacy would, if nothing else, lead to future media opportunities, or at the very least provide the upcoming season of The Apprentice with a ratings bump—then, all in all, the entire affair was a raging, unmitigated success. What Trump will have to do, and Republicans might not appreciate this right now, is create a new way for the GOP to win national elections by expanding the Republican base: by appealing to poorer, working class Americans of all races, creeds and colors.
