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| At least 9 Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israeli strategic airbases |
If Israel and Iran could go to war without messing the Middle East up and forcing world powers to intervene on their behalf’s then go for it.Israel wants Americans to fund, fight, and die on their behalf. War between the two nations would have the pro-israeli lobby in the US war hawking the American senate and house into diving head first into another endless middle eastern war that only degrades the region’s stability and incites terrorism. But of course some within the government is seriously considering the scenario of an all out war with Iran. All foreign policy bureaus and defense ministries evaluate all scenarios when war gaming. It’s part of the reason why those agencies and strategic planning groups exist. If they are seriously gaming that scenario out, they aren’t doing their job.Israel has made escalatory strikes in the region before on nuclear capabilities (even nascent ones). NOW OH SHIT IRAN Just hit Israel Back .Now for the so called " Chain reaction". Economically, it was a loss for Israel. They spent billions on defense against super cheap drones made in Iran. It’s reported that Iran spent less than 10% of what Israel spent on defense to fed off the attack. Israel has vowed to respond to Iran’s unprecedented attack without saying when or how, leaving the region bracing for further escalation after months of unrest linked to the ongoing war in Gaza.Israel’s allies have been urging Israel since the attack to hold back on any response that could spiral. These calls were repeated on Wednesday during visits by the British and German foreign ministers.The diplomatic pressures came as Iran’s president warned that even the “tiniest” invasion of its territory would bring a “massive and harsh” response. The president of the United States has recently gone on the record stating that the US would not back an Israeli counter-attack on Iran. Israel could still choose to go it alone, and the US might provide them other support that winds up indirectly helping them for an invasion, but unless the US president is lying, the US and their allies would not back Israeli escalation. Many Western countries have joined forces to back a powerful nation while innocent civilians suffer, yet they urge for calm. Then Israel chooses to attack Iran. Iran strikes back to defend itself. Some call for sanctions against Iran, claiming the world stands united against Iran as if it's evil. But perhaps those pointing fingers are guilty themselves.As far as I can see; what happened last night was had a positive outcome for both Iran and Israel.Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking "the nation of genocide." It probably also achieves its aim of deterring future direct Israeli attacks on its (non-proxy) interests. It has shored up support for the regime at home and humiliated its biggest rivals, the Gulf Monarchies, who were forced to publicly align themselves with Israel.On the other hand, Israel's biggest enemy at the moment is not Iran - it is Western public opinion. It definitely gained sympathy in the US and Europe last night as being able to present itself as the victim of aggression. For example, it now looks increasingly likely that it will immediately receive extra funding from Washington. It has conclusively demonstrated that its neighbours are now all much more closely aligned with it than with the Iran bloc. And militarily, what happened was an absolute triumph for the IDF. Hundreds of missiles, but zero deaths (I think? this seems to be disputed on Twitter) and essentially no damage. The fear, though, is that Israel desires escalation. If western nations might cease aid to Israel during their war against Hamas, they would certainly not do it during a wider regional confrontation. Israel has won wider regional confrontations before, and there are many is the Israeli administration who believe they would win again. Some believe that wider war with Iran is inevitable, and that allowing Iran to grow stronger is foolish. The sooner the war, the more it favors Israel. Israel started this when they bombed an Iranian diplomatic building - there is no excuse for that and it's in violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. Israel escalated Iran responded, Israel knew exactly what would happen and they deliberately pushed a boundary. The Bibi administration has burned pretty much all of the good will immediately following Oct. 7th. Public opinion of Israel is at a two decade low.The Israeli government is refusing to back down from a Rafa operation. They continue to expand settlements in the West Bank. All against the wishes of the international community and the US. For the first time this US administration abstained from a security council vote condemning Israel. Biden has ratcheted up pressure on Bibi regarding food aid.Strikes by Iran aren't going to change the hardliners in Israel. They are only going to be used as evidence that they need to be more hawkish. The strikes aren't going to change the US position which is to limit escalation.The more isolated and vulnerable Israel feels the more likely they are to act in a preemptive and aggressive manner to eliminate and perceived threat before it comes to a head. This is the risk that has people concerned.
