CALIFORNIA GOING BUST AGAIN!

CALIFORNIA GOING BUST AGAIN!

(1)>>California Facing Record $68 Billion Deficit, Potential 'Fiscal Budget Emergency': Legislative Analyst For the latter part . READ my past Article from January 2023 . Where I warned that the California budget was NOT Fiscally Solvent .👉[ https://theun-politics.blogspot.com/search?q=California+deficit Anyone know how this compares to other states as a % of their overall budget? Obviously, $68B is a massive number, google is telling me it's 30% of their current slated budget? Does any other state even get to a deficit of 20%?]  The nation's most populous state — with an economy that is SUPPOSEDLY the fifth largest in the world — has been struggling since last year because of the rising prices of most goods and services and how the U.S. government has been trying to control it.  The money is already spent/allocated.The tax revenue isn't as high as expected.  The State spent more in anticipation of tax revenue expected. For ONE thing (2)>>California Gov. Newsom while debating Florida Gov. DeSantis , he  just made a public fool of himself , trying to compare Florida with California .  Yep, the perfect Democratic Presidential backup candidate. Already knows how to spend more money than he takes in. Zero training required. While I don't like DeSantis . BUT the whole problem with Newsom is he is a careless fickle , who not to long ago was visiting China & touting California was the 5th largest economy .  I have to say that California is cooked goose when it comes to it's spending practices Newsom Humiliated By Disastrous Budget Report One Week After Bragging About California's Economy .  (3)>>Again and Again , California faces a budget crisis .  Last year I remember seeing a lot of articles/headlines about a $100B surplus and now it has swung completely the opposite direction and now they are saying there is a budget deficit of $30B. Did something happen that caused this $130B swing in their budget? California economy is practically in a dismal state since the Covid Lock-Downs  .A 97.5B surplus mathematically cannot morph into a 30B deficit, unless the original projection was reached by throwing darts blindfolded. Or…was it done by alumni of progressive studies where math is highly optional? This time its OVER 68 BILLION DOLLARS !?why it’s not considered a crisis ?  The State of California is practically BANKRUPT . Trust me ,the state has no money . If you looks the previous deficits since the Covid year 2020 , the state just gave a blank check to it's services , departments . It's almost criminal in a way , that people in California pay huge taxes , they get screwed all the time .  (4)>>I would say Gov. Newsom should just "resign" . No BULL SHIT.Ten Month's ago , Well we do, he knew as the Governor  and it’s a $20 billion+ deficit that’s growing.He kept on spending with no strings attached.And while the analyst’s office also warned that the state reserves are unlikely to cover multiyear deficits” (projected at about $30 billion a year), some Democratic legislators still prefer using some savings to slashing key programs. If the State can't store away extra money as a buffer for years when tax income drops then it can't do long-term planning and has to resort to emergency measures to make up budget shortfalls. Not sure how you weren’t aware of that given it’s the subject .....but the spending of  (4)>>Education increased making up half the state budget . A touchy subject . Talk about education . I used to work for public education for almost 33 years . I have seen times when the State Budget would be rosy one year and the next year it be a pile of crap . And the "drama" of what the state budget creates trickles up and down in the public schools with devastating consequences  for students , teachers and everyone else that works there .They also will be forced to consider cuts to education funding — a move that would be widely unpopular, with the potential to dredge up labor tensions and force painful decisions at the local level during an election year. But the BULL SHIT CLOWNS that run the California government just seemed to skim that subject matter . I know one of the stated reasons for the deficit is due to delaying tax returns. Any idea if the tax returns that only recently got processed, are being counted in this deficit? Or could it possibly be reduced once all those are counted? HOWEVER where did 2 years of tax revenue just go? Was it the COSMIC COOKIE MONSTER that somehow just siphoned off 20 billion dollars ??? NOW I have to question the States "claim" that it has 34 billion in reserves ???  (5)>>Nothing in the California budget adds UP ?

NOTES AND COMMENTS :(1)>>California Facing Record $68 Billion Deficit, Potential 'Fiscal Budget Emergency': Legislative Analyst.  That is the biggest deficit by dollars in state history, but previous deficits have been larger as a percentage of state spending. California's current budget tops $300 billion, the largest by far of any state. How it happened ? It was gross negligence on the part of Gov. Newsom . Way back , January 2023 , Newsom prepared a budget knowing fully that California was 20 billion in the hole . He did not authorized , or prioritize any deficit reductions , instead he increased spending by another 200 billion dollars , with less tax revenues coming in.  Actually, California politicians do grasp volatility. That was demonstrated 11 months ago when Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed a 2023-24 budget that addressed what he said was a $22.5 billion deficit just eight months after he had boasted of a $97.5 billion surplus.“No other state in American history has ever experienced a surplus as large as this,” Newsom had bragged in May 2022, thus encouraging his fellow Democrats in the Legislature to sharply increase spending. It was a problem first noted by San Francisco’s budget office but nobody really took notice. Well tbf Gov Newsome warned about it last year or so, so it wasn’t unexpected.California has a highly progressive tax structure that is also highly volatile. In a good year it can mean a $100B surplus. In a bad year it can mean a $100B deficit. This isn't news.(2)>>California Gov. Newsom while debating Florida Gov. DeSantis , he  just made a public fool of himself , trying to compare Florida with California . Last week’s Fox News debate between Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom revealed several inconvenient truths about California and Gavin Newsom. One is that California’s poorly designed economic policies have delivered record high housing costs and homelessness, high tax rates, high energy costs, and failing public schools, despite enormous school spending. Another is Newsom’s unwillingness—to the point of absurdity—to own any of those policy mistakes.There are so many other policy failures in California that never came up in the debate. Nearly one out of three Californians live in or near poverty. Buying a home is unattainable for nearly all Californians, which reflects Newsom’s failed promise to increase homebuilding in the state. Nearly one million Californians don’t have access to clean water, a problem that should be an obvious priority for the state to fix but that persists after five years of Newsom’s governorship.Many Californians are tired of Newsom. In a state that is totally dominated by the Democratic party, Newsom’s job approval has dropped to 43 percent, with just 18 percent approving strongly. It is obvious now that Newsom is looking to the national political stage. And Californians are now looking for a governor who can fix these policy failures.  (3)>>Again and Again , California faces a budget crisis .  California has a really bad record about balancing budgets . AS far as YOU can go back to 2003 , when the state had a deficit under then Gov. Gray Davis it was just peanuts if you compare with today's wreak of a state . Mind you , the state was in the hole for decades .Newsom’s economic analysts are not projecting a recession in the near future, but they noted the potential for one based on inflation and rising interest rates. With the state facing a significant budget deficit, federal COVID funding to schools set to dry up in 2024, and the need to help students make up for learning losses suffered during the pandemic, California’s schools and policymakers have their work cut out for them. California has been really broke , it's a high tax state that has been putting money into a its educational system more than it's infrastructure .A study by the California Policy Center in 2013 found that conservative estimates of total government debt — including city, county, and public school district debt — totaled nearly $850 billion. More realistic assumptions about future health care costs and the annual rate of return on the pension fund (4.5% instead of 5.5%) put the total debt over $1 trillion.Worse for Newsom, this turnaround does not reflect a national phenomenon. Gregg Abbott’s Texas and Ron DeSantis’s Florida have achieved large budget surpluses, with several red states even initiating tax cuts. If the situation does not change, the contrast could prove devastating to Newsom’s presidential ambitions as well as to President Joe Biden, whose policy agenda largely follows progressive California lines.   (4)>>I would say Gov. Newsom should just "resign" .  With the growing evidence of fiscal neglect , starting January 2023 the state under Newsom did not do any budget accommodations to a growing deficit except spotty shuffling of revenues that did not eliminate the already grown deficit from the "previous" 2 years. While we been told that the state had a surplus of 97 billion $$$ , that maybe not exactly truthful . The question of the state reserves can't explain the budget shortfalls of the last two years when revenues were dropping . In MAY we had a growing deficit 32 billion dollars , his revise did not call for cross the board cuts , instead he went ahead with a huge spending plan , was warned by the LAO about a potential economic disaster .In 2022, the stock market declined, which meant far less revenue from capital gains. This is how we went from a $75B surplus in 2021 to a $32B deficit in 2022.Note that this 'deficit' will have impact on local services like parks, police, fire, schools, roads, etc. This will only have a noticeable impact on state level services, like CSU/UC schools, state parks, high-speed rail, etc. Again , Newsom's office was vary aware of the impending doom , remember to flew to China while a deficit was just piling up .Never leave money on the table. As someone with the state, you need to ensure you can utilize the funding. Otherwise you will get less funding in the next fiscal year. (4)>>Education increased making up half the state budget. California spent  about $128 billion on K–12 public education this fiscal year. This amount exceeds the entire budget of all states except New York and Texas and is roughly equal to the combined state budgets of Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Tennessee. The population of these states together is nearly 33 million, compared to California’s 39.2 million population. It's half of the entire state budget . In my line of thinking it's a catastrophic way set to the California education system into a trip wire bomb fiasco . Once the state is in a financial fiasco , it puts K-12 funding always at the chopping block first . It's not entirely saying that education is underfunded in the state , but there are huge wage discrepancies how teachers are paid and verses the high cost of living in the state . These huge expenditures have stalled major California infrastructure plans for decades .It's not how students are educated , but it's how the state government has allocated half of its it's budget to schools .(5)>>Nothing in the California budget adds UP ? Consider what Newsom and his partners in crime in the legislature did last year knowing that the state’s financial roller coaster would eventually start its predictable plunge.Trying to explain California’s $68 billion deficit versus Florida’s $22 billion surplus could have prompted Newsom to embark on political contortions that could have thrown his back out.The announcement California is staring down a record $68 billion deficit comes just 18 months after Gov. Gavin Newsom bragged the Golden State was sitting on a $97.5 billion surplus.A year after his surplus boasting, Newsom presented a 2023-24 budget that dealt with a projected $31.5 billion deficit. Since its passage in June, revenues have continued to fall below estimates, which means a continuing gap between income and outgo. Now  the Golden State is now staring at a $68 billion shortfall because the gusher of tax revenue from soaking the rich has dried up.In plain English: Poof. Now, the surplus is gone and California is facing a sizable budget deficit. The fun is over. A Politico story captured the weeping and gnashing of teeth in Sacramento, as Democratic leaders vowed to protect every penny of spending from the budget ax. None of this should have been a surprise, given that “warning signs have been flashing for months.” 

CALIFORNIA'S 25 BILLION DOLLAR deficit COLLAPSE !

The Image illustrates California state budget 

for the year 2023 AD.

Trying times ahead for California .

AS CALIFORNIA grapples with the idea of paying  (1)>>"reparations" to black -african Americans , there is a looming shadow of State Economic collapse . Six months ago, while proposing a revised state budget,  (2)>>Gov. Gavin Newsom bragged about the state’s having a $97.5 billion surplus that would finance some landmark expansions of social and educational services.“No other state in American history has ever experienced a surplus as large as this,”Newsom told reporters as he unveiled a 2022-23 fiscal year budget that topped $300 billion and, with a few tweaks, was eagerly adopted by the Legislature. The grim news isn’t as shocking as the numbers — the entire nation is grappling with inflation and soaring interest rates, and  (3)>>Gov. Gavin Newsom has played with numbers for almost three years how rosey the budget is .Unlike the federal government, the state must balance its budget yearly and not run a deficit.Yet still giving free health insurance to illegal immigrants, reparations to people who were never slaves, paying black and pacific Islanders to have babies, paying people to be homeless and about to start paying people to be trans.The estimate is part of the LAO’s 2023-2024 fiscal outlook, which is typically released at this time of year to help guide state lawmakers as they begin putting together budget proposals for the upcoming fiscal year. The office noted, less spending will help offset revenue losses like the state is expected to experience. The starker outlook poses a new set of  (4)>>challenges for Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom after years of flush budgets buoyed by a booming stock market and thriving tech sector. And advocates who scored massive victories over two years of skyrocketing surpluses are now worried the money will dry up.The California Department of Finance has said revenue is down for several reasons, beginning with the state’s highest earners, which generally includes those who make more than $500,000 a year. The state's progressive tax structure heavily relies on them.The announcement underscores California’s volatile tax revenue system, which has whiplashed between record deficits and surpluses since the COVID-19 pandemic struck in 2020. (5)>>That year, the state legislature cut spending to fill a $54 billion deficit in what lawmakers and analysts now acknowledge was an overcorrection.In 2021 and 2022, lawmakers had close to $100 billion in surplus funds and federal aid, which they (5.1)>>used to boost spending on education, homelessness, health care for undocumented residents and more. The budget also included a $17 billion inflation relief package with rebates between $200 and $1,050 for middle and low-income taxpayers. California governor Gavin Newsom seems oblivious to these statistics. Rather than focusing budget priorities on addressing these nuts-and-bolts deficiencies, including the lack of accountability within state government, Newsom continues to pursue spending on areas of his own interest, such as climate change, in which California green energy policies have raised the cost of energy to consumers and businesses. He also has proposed using $125 million for women who come to California from another state for abortions. Irrespective of one’s position on this issue, this is an inappropriate use of taxpayer funds. Newsom’s fiscal responsibility is to the citizens of California, period.A spokesperson for the Department of Finance said in September the combination of a shrinking unemployment rate and declining income tax revenues likely means the state is feeling the effects of job losses in higher-earning industries such as tech. Those job losses will likely have a disproportionate impact on state revenues.Earlier this fall,  (6)>>Newsom vetoed dozens of bills that would have put the state on the hook for new, unbudgeted spending, citing lower-than-expected revenues. California was the state with the biggest exodus in the nation, causing it to lose a House seat for the first time in history. Now analysts are seeing the results of all these households and businesses that aren’t paying taxes — the biggest black eye being Tesla and Hewlett Packard, both setting up shop in Texas.California’s 40 million residents depend on less than 1 percent of the state’s taxpayers to pay nearly half of the state income tax, which for California’s highest tier of earners tops out at the nation’s highest rate of 13.3 percent.In other words, California cannot afford to lose even a few thousand of its wealthiest individual taxpayers. Something's got to give in California! As politicians are wont to do, the Dems in CA are generous with other people's money. Housing prices keep going up but they put out the welcome mat - as a sanctuary state - for untold thousands of mainly poor and uneducated illegals then provide them with Medi-Cal, education for their children, etc. It's the overburdened and shrinking middle class & upper middle class that have to pay the increasing tax burden to keep the state afloat. No wonder so many of them pull up their stakes and head to better-run states.

NOTES AND COMMENTS:

(1)>>"reparations" to black -african Americans .  A non-slave state is going to take money from their white , non black working taxpayers who never owned a slave in a state that prohibited slavery when it entered the union and give it to people who were never slaves. Perhaps money should be paid to the families of those in the state who made sure California entered as a non-slave state. Where is this money going to come from? Will it push more people and companies out of CA? Force bankruptcy on the state? Should people have a say on how their tax dollars are spent? Interesting questions... Where will the answers come from ???  Right now I don't think California can fund this without issuing general funds bonds. Those require a statewide proposition and majority vote to pass. History would also tell us that this would have to be passed by the courts. It seems like a stunt from a governor that has presidential aspirations. Hey, if Californians pass it then expect other services to be cut. Personally, I don't get anything from this state and any excuse to raise rents ( like higher taxes). He refuses to allow a property tax exemption for totally and permanently disabled veterans because the price tag is too high at $30 million. Yet he wants to pay out hundreds of thousands to buy votes.  Newsom has aggressively pushed his plan to provide financial reparations to Black Californians whom he says must be financially compensated for decades of discrimination.The California Reparations Task Force's five member economic consultant team reported that under the initiative, qualifying Black residents in the state could qualify for $223,200 per person. All at the Taxpayers of California's expense. How and why the people of California put up with this stuff is absolutely incredible.   Cost more than the state total budget they are insane .(2)>>Gov. Gavin Newsom bragged about the state’s having a $97.5 billion surplus.  Six months ago, while proposing a revised state budget, Gov. Gavin Newsom bragged about the state’s having a $97.5 billion surplus that would finance some landmark expansions of social and educational services. “No other state in American history has ever experienced a surplus as large as this,” Newsom told reporters as he unveiled a 2022-23 fiscal year budget that topped $300 billion and, with a few tweaks, was eagerly adopted by the Legislature. Legislature’s budget advisor, Gabe Petek, issued a sobering report on the state’s finances, saying revenues are likely to fall $41 billion short of what Newsom and legislators anticipated, leaving the state with a $25 billion projected deficit for the 2023-24 budget. Moreover, he said, if recession hits, as many economists expect, the gap between income and outgo could be much higher.If it’s just a $25 billion problem — as large as that number might seem — it could be handled relatively easily with some adjustments, such as throttling back on some of the spending the current budget contains. (3)>>Gov. Gavin Newsom has played with numbers for almost three years how rosey the budget is .  Gov. Newsom's budget never makes any sense , if you been following it for the last three years . Back in 2020 , California faced a 50 billion dollar deficit , that somehow was wiped out the following year . In 2021, the governor enjoyed an also-significant $76-billion surplus. As the news site CALmatters reported, Newsom went on a “spending spree” in advance of a failed recall election: “He wants to spend $12 billion to house the homeless … $3.4 billion to expand preschool to all 4-year-olds … $1.5 billion cleaning up blight.” He just happened to make each announcement at a relevant location for a photo opportunity. Go figure. The mad money this year is the never-dreamed-of tax surplus of $97.5 billion projected by July 2023. Yes, that’s nearly $100 billion over what the state needs to fund what it planned.It begs the question: Why not just return the excess money to taxpayers?Part of the answer: “Only” $49 billion is discretionary money. The lion’s share of the rest legally must go to schools — $37 billion.A large amount of the surplus comes from stock gains and options. Next year that will mostly be gone. Soon Ca. will be writing IOU's again. (4)>>challenges for Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom . Now, the surplus is gone and California is facing a sizable budget deficit. The fun is over. A Politico story captured the weeping and gnashing of teeth in Sacramento, as Democratic leaders vowed to protect every penny of spending from the budget ax. None of this should have been a surprise, given that “warning signs have been flashing for months.” The publication pointed to long-obvious falling tax revenues and layoffs at Bay Area tech companies. For years Gov. Gavin Newsom has boasted about billions in surplus while creating pricey programs for green energy and eradication of the homeless and crime. Last year he invited the world’s homeless to California, saying they would be cared for by taxpayers.Yet the high cost of living coupled with a yearlong COVID-19 shutdown was too much to handle for 101,000 households who fled the state in 2021, according to a Forbes study.(5)>>That year, the state legislature cut spending to fill a $54 billion deficit in what lawmakers and analysts now acknowledge was an overcorrection.  I believe that California is bankrupt , the huge deficit was swept under the rug .$54 billion deficit of 2020 didn't just go away with a magic wand . That figure is higher than the deficit during the Great Recession and obliterates the state’s once-healthy reserves.Without sugar-coating how hard the prolonged shutdown of businesses during the pandemic hurt the state . Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration released bleak projections on key statewide indicators: 18% unemployment rate for the year, 21% drop in new housing permits and nearly 9% decline in California personal income. The budget that lawmakers approved in June anticipated a 15% drop in tax collections because of the pandemic. But so far, tax collections are 9% higher than last fiscal year, with the state bringing in $11 billion more than expected. The result is a one-time windfall estimates at $26 billion in loss revenues by 2023 but that  said could fluctuate between $12 billion and $40 billion depending on what happens. (5.1)>>used to boost spending on education.  As of July 2022 , California spending for education has now taken half of the State spending . California spends more on education than any other state in the union.  So far California has tripled its Ed spending . This year  California’s public schools would see more than $20,000 per student in state funding under Gov. Gavin Newsom’s $102 billion education budget boost proposal, with significant funding to help districts weather the ongoing pandemic. Has now become too bloated .But California can’t keep increasing education spending while losing students and failing to produce significant achievement gains. Here’s my problem with money. It doesn’t necessarily mean better test scores or outcomes. Yes I agree teachers should be paid more. However, nearly half of California students can’t read at grade level. $128 billion to education, ranks 40th in the nation, below Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Nebraska, Indiana....you know, the flyover states.While administration has gotten bonuses and pay raises, the public side of education keeps getting budget cuts instead. It's pretty clear where the money is going and its not going to the future generations.(6)>>Newsom vetoed dozens of bills that would have put the state on the hook for new, unbudgeted spending, citing lower-than-expected revenues. Economic uncertainty at the state and national level is prompting him to keep a tighter hold on spending. Meanwhile, state financial experts are preparing for a time when the Golden State does not have a nearly $100 billion surplus. But Newsom hypocrisy is manifested when  Nearly a dozen bills the governor has rejected in recent weeks include a letter cautioning lawmakers against spending unbudgeted funds. Some of those measures would have done things like provide free transit passes for students, limit preschool fees for low-income families, and create a pilot to fund outreach for behavioral health services to certain Medi-Cal patients. People at the lower end were gutted out in vetoed . The governor’s veto message says bills sent to his desk add up to more than $30 billion in one-time and ongoing spending not accounted for in the state budget, which was approved last June.The Department of Finance predicted in last May revise that the state’s good fortunes wouldn’t last forever, citing the war in Ukraine, inflation, global supply chain disruptions and the stock market as potential warning signs.

Gov. Newsom' Slippery Slope.

California faces huge multi billion dollars 💰 
Of deficits , now Gov. Newsom is 
Taking a Slippery Slope to
fight Trump.

CALIFORNIA Gov. NEWSOM'S California is a sinkhole of high taxes, regulations, that is broke with a huge yearly deficit, lost revenue. But TRUMP has set the ball rolling on Tariffs as we explained in our last two blog posts . Gavin Newsom it's slick hair jell Governor is now suing the Trump Administration over tariffs. You SHOULD guess why ? The trade war between China , the rest of the world could crash California revenues on state exports . On top of a lawsuit against Trump. Gov. Newsom is seeking trade deals and exemptions from international tariff reprisals. BUT, No state can establish international trade policy independent of the federal government, so I'm not sure how this is supposed to work. The state is also facing a budget shortfall and doesn't want to tax billionaires.Perhaps it could be sold as West Coast billionaires bypassing for their own commercial interests. Perhaps a greedy few break alliance with federal tariffs when they see paper or logistical advantage they can access. The lawsuit is Newsom’s most direct legal challenge to Trump’s agenda since the president retook office in January. The move instantly reignites California’s war with Trump and cements its place atop the resistance, after Newsom spent months appealing to the president for federal disaster relief. It’s also notable as a unilateral challenge, underscoring the singular importance of the issue in California. Bonta has worked closely with other blue states on previous lawsuits challenging Trump’s immigration policies and federal funding cuts.Newsom said that the tariffs had already cost the state billions of dollars in inflated costs and supply-chain disruptions, and that he was particularly concerned about the vulnerability of California farmers to the retaliatory trade policies of other countries. Newsom and Bonta’s argument targets the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, the law Trump is using to impose tariffs without congressional approval. The two Democrats argue Trump lacks the authority to levy tariffs under the law, mirroring a similar case filed Monday by a group of U.S. businesses. California, which the governor's office said engaged in nearly $675 billion in two-way trade last year, stands to lose billions in state revenue under Trump's tariff policies if international commerce declines and the stock market tanks. Mexico, Canada and China represent the state's three largest trade partners.

California is one big CON .

However, the fine print of Newsom’s budget contains several indirect tax increases on businesses – mostly by reducing offsets of taxable income – that over the next few years would raise as much as $18 billion.Reports from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) show that 716,948 Californians moved to another U.S. state or territory between 2020 and 2021. In that same time, 385,188 Americans moved into California — making California’s net population loss 331,760 residents. And those people took $29 billion in taxable income with them — or $183,737 on average. Meanwhile, those that moved into the state earned much less at $87,000 on average. Newsom’s rush to the center-right looks out of place amid the positive polling coming Democrats’ way, and it highlights the real moral hazard that comes from being too quick to sell out your principles because of a few bad polls. That doesn’t mean Democrats should rely on Trump to fumble his way into a Democratic Congress in 2026. They will still need to make the case for Democratic leadership. But unlike Newsom seems to think, they don’t need to abandon their Democratic bona fides to get there. Newsom's cronies are also looking for ways to tax you more!  is exploring a different funding method for road repairs: having drivers pay for them, similar to how they pay for public utilities.Known as a road charge, drivers in California would pay a monthly fee based on the number of miles driven.As California transitions to a carbon emissions-free future, the system is considered an alternative to the current gas tax. “California lawmakers and Gov. Gavin Newsom are looking at a $2 billion deficit ahead of the next fiscal year, according to a report released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office. It’s a dramatic improvement over last year’s budget picture, when the LAO initially projected a $68 billion shortfall. Lawmakers and Newsom took early action to trim spending, shrinking the deficit to about $47 billion for the current fiscal year. The LAO described the budget picture as “roughly balanced.” The turnaround is driven by a budget approved earlier this year, which cut $11 billion in spending and temporary revenue increases of $5.5 billion.” The news isn’t the $2B deficit, the news is that the cuts worked, nearly balancing the budget. Correct. To summarize what happened, CA made a *really* generous calculation (some would call it a historic fuck-up) on estimating incoming taxes back in 2022 or so that said they had $300bn in revenue coming because of early tax receipts, when in reality they had about $200bn coming. As an example of why this happened, on Jan 10, 2025 they have to submit their budget for July 2025-June 2026 (or approximately that), so you're basing the budget 8-20 months from now on your 3rd quarter tax receipts, and COVID was a nightmare on a state that heavily relies on income tax. Anyway...They have spent the last 2 years cancelling programs that hadn't started, scaling back others that had, shrinking existing programs, cost-cutting in some areas, pulling money out of rainy-day funds, and a little bit of creative accounting to shrink the deficit because they're required in the state constitution to pass a balanced budget. So in 3 years they'll have gone from a $100bn deficit to a $2bn deficit, which is less than 1% of the expected revenue the state is expected to bring in.  I mean, while I think the traitorous  way to define Newdom, is heading the country, I can understand the argument that Newsom is a traitor to the direction Trump is taking the country. In the strictest definition of the word, it fits. That being said, when the actions of the country are unjust, unfair, and unconscionable, the country would be better off if we were all traitors. I'd argue tha betraying the orders of a criminal president are what's best for everyone.

California Gov. Newsom's Budget Catastrophe .

REMINDER: Newsom is not a progressive. He's a corporate neoliberal fraud. California climate programs would lose billions in Newsom’s budgetThere is one party that runs this state. No threat of any other party taking power and trying new ideas. So the same agenda and same ideas are run over and over again. Until that changes. This state will continue to sink. His May Revision includes a number of cuts to IHSS, workforce initiatives, housing and homelessness programs, CalFresh/CFAP, APS, and CDA programs including the Older Californians Act.“California remains in a budget deficit and it is crucial that the state does what it can to protect those who are the most vulnerable during these times. DRC is proud to align with 132 disability, aging and other civil rights organizations to lift up issues and concerns that our community prioritizes in this year’s May Revision of the budget from Governor Newsom,” - I just don't understand how California's leaders stay as California's leaders.Opinion: California’s Broken Constitution and Powerful Lobbies Make a Balanced Budget Impossible: Gov. Gavin Newsom presents his budget plan in Sacramento. Their state is failing. Objectively. Budget deficit is over $40B- 78 billion $$$ this year. Meanwhile, they have reparations panels and free healthcare and tranny surgery for noncitizens. From what money?!? Insanity. RIGHT now the California legislature & Newsom can't seem to cut anything prudently , but they will never touch K-12 Education fat cow , which is draining the state's coffers , but I have to give credit to the State Teacher's Union , they have Gov. Newsom balls in their pockets . They managed to get Newsom to give education another 2 billion dollars , while at the same time cutting In House Healthcare for the states needy senior citizens .Newsom was embarrassed on national stage & blasted by his biggest union backers in CA over his new budget proposal — which will still come up over $70 billion short! Education budget in the state is a huge funding problem , it's over inflated, over spent.Additionally, potential reductions in spending for schools and community colleges could contribute approximately $17 billion toward resolving the deficit. BUT , nobody would touch the Fat Cow ....Words cannot express how insane this is. Gavins office initially estimated the deficit to be around another 58 billion in January 2025 . The Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) recently updated that figure to 73 billion. Now, it's estimated to be 222 billion, and it's not even April. That's nearly an entire year of California's fiscal budget. Assembly Democrats are at odds with California Gov. Gavin Newsom on a handful of big issues — including proposed cuts to Medi-Cal provider rate increases and tax deduction suspensions — as lawmakers negotiate a budget to close an estimated $45 billion deficit. The Legislature must pass a spending plan by June 15 for lawmakers to receive their paychecks. That means Newsom, Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, D-Hollister, and Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire, D-Healdsburg, will need to reach a deal soon.California can't simply print money like the Federal Reserve.Unless California gets money from the Federal Government, The Federal Reserve can't print money to bail us out.Our constitution requires the state to balance its budget. But balancing the state budget requires violating the state constitution.How’s that? Because on fiscal matters, our constitution is effectively a ratchet. The document is full of guarantees and formulas, approved by voters, that ratchet up spending on favored programs, even when revenues drop and the state budget is out of balance.Meanwhile, the constitution also has plenty of voter-approved limits on taxes and fees. These limits ratchet down revenues in slower economic times and make it harder for the state and local governments to raise revenues to cover budget increases. However, Newsom’s budget staff assumed that the revenue bonanza from 2021 would not just continue but would grow to an even bigger bonanza in future years. These revenue assumptions were patently unrealistic, particularly with the long-standing history of capital-gains revenue crashes following booms and with the stock market declining considerably in real time during the first half of 2022.Despite this, Newsom’s staff predicted revenues for fiscal years 2022‒23 and 2023‒24 that were roughly $80 billion higher than what was realized.To put the 2022‒24 revenue prediction errors in perspective, New York is the only state that had a general fund budget at that time exceeding this error.These unrealistic assumptions led Newsom in June 2022 when he signed the budget to state that “No other state in American history has ever experienced a surplus as large as this.” But when reality bit, it bit hard, and the ephemeral surplus morphed into a deficit.  Somehow, using California math, CaDems have reduced cuts the governor requested, increased spending in several programtic areas, have a higher reserve than proposed by the governor, and balanced budget in the out years.Why is this state so poorly run? Can't we have competent non-political managers to manage budgets, maintenance needs, infrastructure, etc. Let politicians and voters define general priorities but keep actual management and execution in hands of competent people .. Seriously, the governor’s plan was a stretch, this is a whimsical skipping down a yellow brick road while singing we are off to see the wizard.

The TOTAL RECALLING of Gov. NEWSOM.

A California coup is just like a standard coup, except it's slightly narrower and longer.

California is such a CRAZY STATE in the American Union now it merits a (1)>>second recall of it's Governor. ALAS ! California is not the only state on record for recalls. 2021 may be the "year" of the recall effort.  There are about👉 three-dozen pandemic-related recalls have been launched at the state and local levels.Governors might have to worry too  about the current wave of recalls. Lock downs exposed a lot weaknesses in how State Governments did handle the pandemic . Only two governors have been successfully recalled in American history: Republican Lynn Frazier of North Dakota in 1921 and Democrat Gray Davis of California in 2003.The way California’s recall system works, voters are asked on the same ballot whether to revoke the term of the incumbent, and who they want to succeed her or him if the first measure wins a majority.  The defeat of Davis led to the election of Republican  (1.2)>>Arnold Schwarzenegger

as governor. It also had what political scientists like to call a demonstration effect, increasing the number of recall attempts against lower-level officials. BUT California was lackluster before the pandemic hit . Gov. Newsom and Pres. Trump were both riding high on the wave of the Wall Street wallet before 2020 , both men though at odds with each other were in fact both benefiting from the Tax cuts that Pres. Trump himself initiated .  (2)>>Covid crashed the state economy in 2020 . But there some similarities how Gov. Newsom and former Gov. Gray Davis faced , what led to their recalls . It's the ECONOMY . 2003 was a bad year for California , the state was broke , it had issues with Electrical Deregulation , it's so called 20 billion rainy day surplus was nothing more than a 20 billion deficit . (3)>>I doubt you can  TRY to replace Gavin Newsom, but if you actually want to have a chance of success, you would need to replace him with another Democrat? The GOP in California was doomed after Arnold Schwarzenegger cooked the party . Doing some research to see who is behind the recall Gavin Newsom campaign and found this comment.👉 "  What do you like about him? His signing of AB5, his complete mishandling of the pandemic, and flouting his own rules have seriously made me consider signing the petition ". I'm not sure what the alternative is, really, but I know I don't like a lot of the things he's done this year.He has mishandled the pandemic as of late, but not at the level of republican governors. His March stay at home order was a success, and he's taking many steps towards fighting California's most pressing problems. (4)>>I am very critical of him for flouting his own rules and not being tough on enforcing the rules, but considering he believes in science and did not send the police with guns to silence a truth telling data scientist.Lastly, he had an entire year to come up with a Covid Vaccination plan and he still failed at that. An entire year! There is no structure or order for how California is administering the vaccine and we're still doing it too slowly. He has fucked up beyond belief here and yeah I agree with you on who is particularly funding the recall efforts. Thanks for the discussion downvote though!

California Budget Uncertainties 

While Gov. Newsom rolled the January 2021 budget with 200 billion in spending . Looked really good on paper . The reality of it is Throwing money at the problem has been tried for years.  Last year the State of California fell into a 54 billion dollar insolvency due to the Pandemic shutdowns , it blew the 20 billion dollar surplus out the window if it ever existed . California was waiting on Federal Stimulus money from the HEROES ACT, that federal money was stalled , is still in stu waiting for approval of both Democrats and Republican's to send it to Biden . That money is still frozen . Yet (5)>>Gov. Newsom created a imaginary budget just to keep state institutions running . Truth there is REALLY NO MONEY.While The $227.2 billion fiscal blueprint includes what Newsom referred to as a $5 billion (5.1)“immediate action plan”. The budget assumes $6.7 billion in anticipated federal support from the coronavirus relief package recently approved by Congress, that has yet to reach the state .To the extent that the estimate is politically influenced, there are offsetting incentives to consider. On the one hand, more pessimistic budget estimates mean more politically painful cuts are needed. (6)>>On the other hand, a bigger deficit could bolster the case for a bigger federal bailout. Indeed, back of the envelope estimates of the $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act’ allocations suggests that the latest coronavirus stimulus and relief bill making its way through Congress would bring $51 billion to California state government, almost fully closing the budget hole that Newsom had been expecting .  NOW EXPECTING the 2021 "May Revise ", he  is waiting on the American Congress to agree on a Covid bail out stimulus.  Yet Newsom's budget is based more on hope than reality.

WILL NEWSOM SURVIVE A RECALL ????

The Petition to Recall Newsom hit 1.3 million signatures , still growing . It's possible that it will make it on the March ballot .  (7)>>NOW HERE IS ANOTHER TWIST . Gavin Newsom could survive the recall unlike former Gov. Davis ??? . AS I said above ☝, the Republican's need another Arnold Schwarzenegger to kick ass with public appeal. Though the recall effort is largely a Republican project, it could gain more support from other voters unhappy with Newsom’s record this year . Pro Newsom Polls tell another story :  " Newsom’s backers say he has done all he can to manage the disparate crises, and recent polls suggest that many Californians agree. In a poll conducted in November by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, 58% of adults surveyed said they approved of the way the governor was handling jobs and the economy". WE know that Newsom has support from strong Union members in the state . That's a percentage , but you have to look back at the last recall of 2003 which many state Union members voted Republican .But California Democrats and their political backers are bracing for a campaign nevertheless as recall organizers turn in hundreds of thousands of signatures. State lawmakers are proclaiming their support for Newsom, seeking to tamp down any signs of disunity. Interest groups and donors who would be called upon to fund a recall defense are quietly ramping up, with one union launching the first public counteroffensive.Nearly 18 years ago, California's only gubernatorial recall drew 135 candidates, including several B-list celebrities and one A-lister: Arnold Schwarzenegger, who swept into office on a Republican promise to clean up state government. With just two statewide elections in the U.S. this year — governors races in Virginia and New Jersey — another California recall would likely become the biggest political event of 2021.

NOTES AND COMMENTS:

(1)>>second recall of it's Governor.  While the Nation is in a grip's with a possible "second" Impeachment of it's former President number 45 . California will make history recalling it's governor again 😂, its been decades since the last recall . So laughable, its like payback politically since the Democratic side in the last 4 years was after Trump . Now California just may give it's self a new fresh start with the recall .  (1.2)>>Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor. The petty bourgeoisie want to save their businesses, I understand and can sympathize. But I don't trust their political instincts, and I doubt they would advance a candidate any better. Maybe another Conan the Barbarian.👉👉The 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis succeeded in part because Arnold Schwarzenegger ran to replace him. He was a charismatic, largely self-funding candidate with 100% name recognition and California-friendly moderate position Like Donald Trump was in 2016 . The STAR POWER shows the public gullibility .  How he got elected  is strange in the first place .Gov. Schwarzenegger was really awful , Davis was equally bad when it came to the Sate Budget , how lucky we survived Arnold's cuts , the battle with the "girly men" Democrats in Sacramento reminded me how Trump was fighting the Washington D.C. "swamp" ,like Arnold's "special interests" in California  . I have wondered if both Arnold and Trump were groomed by the same sneaky group that had hidden agendas . Both men seems to have had the same agenda , sounded vary similar in both their policies . (2)>>Covid crashed the state economy in 2020 . Sure Newsom locked the state down early and had success for a month or two. Then he completely caved to political and company pressure, opened the state

up too early, and we saw the spikes we had in summer. Remember he even allowed for the riots last year with no message to the public during the pandemic . Now he's done absolutely nothing to curb Covid state-wide. Here in LA, we are the Covid epicenter of the nation beating out all those red states with shit governors and shit policies. Believing in science isn't enough, you also have to act on it! Put in place real measures and hold people accountable to enforce these measures. Right now he is just picking and choosing what industries get to work as "essential" and which get to be destroyed. (3)>>I doubt you can  TRY to replace Gavin Newsom. A Alternative would have to run against Newsom if the state would have to remain a "blue " state for the Democrat's sake . OTHERWISE , there has to be a good Republican to take the state and transform the legislature . Best case scenario is a nonpartisan-ish silicon valley businessman who built his company ground up. Like Elon Musk if he hadn't packed it in and headed to TX.Trouble is those guys are too smart to believe politics leads on anything, or changes the world in any meaningful way. What we need is structural reform. CA is too big for a legislative structure like we have. We need more reps organized differently to better represent this diverse state. Perhaps a 3rd part should run for Governor . (4)>>I am very critical of him for flouting his own rules and not being tough on enforcing the rules.  Gov. Newsom Broke his own rules . California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been pleading with his state's nearly 40 million residents not to gather in groups, even with friends and family. Meanwhile the sly Governor attended a party that would make Dr. Fauci go AWOL . The party at the posh French Laundry restaurant had harmed Newsom's credibility and messaging as the state entered a critical holiday stretch with virus cases increasing.Plus so many people are being like, "why should I follow any new covid guidelines if Newsom can't do the same" instead of understanding that the reason we should be mad at him is because the guidelines are IMPORTANT and it's a breach of public trust to have the governor not follow them. It's like people could care less about covid and only care that he showed hypocrisy about something. No Masks , no social distancing , on the sideline with a state Medical Lobby attending the party . So..... Far..... complaints about favoring big businesses over smaller ones are fair and basically accurate. Newsom drew a lot of heat over this .(5)>>Gov. Newsom created a imaginary budget just to keep state institutions running.To the extent that the estimate is politically influenced, there are offsetting incentives to consider. On the one hand, more pessimistic budget estimates mean more politically painful cuts are needed. On the other hand, a bigger deficit could bolster the case for a bigger federal bailout. Indeed, my back of the envelope estimates of the $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act’ allocations suggests that the latest coronavirus stimulus and relief bill making its way through Congress would bring $51 billion to California state government, almost fully closing the budget hole that Newsom is expecting from last year. (5.1)“immediate action plan”.  His budget proposal calls for roughly $90 billion in education funding, the highest level in state history. Parents are currently paying for tutoring and supplies that would have otherwise been provided in classrooms. Given that it will be months before teachers return, parents bearing the costs of educating their kids at home might wonder if this is a misdirection of resources.The budget directs a total of $7 billion in pandemic-related support to schools and students. These funds are in addition to the billions of dollars that California schools have already received in federal aid. Yet classrooms don’t need to resemble hospitals. They can already return with the same added cost-effective precautions seen in the rest of the economy. More government spending won’t fix the economic problems facing the state. California has the country’s seventh-highest unemployment rate, with 1.5 million people looking for work. Poverty, economic opportunity, and income inequality are all among the worst in the nation. The state’s strict Covid-19 restrictions have caused immense small business pain for little-to-no apparent gain. Hospitalizations per capita are near the highest in the country, and many ICUs are overrun.Californians earning a mere $59,000 per year face a 9.3 percent tax rate. Yet, Golden State residents get almost nothing in return for their massive tax burdens. Schools are failing (when they’re open), homelessness is out of control, infrastructure resembles the Third World, and first responders are slow to arrive, if they come at all. That’ll get worse to the extent California communities succeed in defunding police.  (6)>>On the other hand, a bigger deficit could bolster the case for a bigger federal bailout. As the Wall Street Journal reported, California’s revenue for last fiscal year is almost $10 billion above projections, while New York’s revenue increased more than 4 percent from September of 2019 to September of 2020. All this is to say that states do not need bailouts; they want bailouts so they can use the money — intended to address the fallout from COVID — to plug the long-standing holes in their budgets and pension systems. It’s as simple as that.While many states have severe fiscal problems, the depth and unusual persistence of California’s budget problems — .— But even if the pandemic hadn’t happened, California would have accumulated a large deficit once the next recession hit. Now in 2021 , the January Budget is based more on a Federal bail out. (7)>>NOW HERE IS ANOTHER TWIST . While waiting on the Budget from the Feds, Newsom has a problem with Vaccine distributions. His "mass vaccination " plans might be slowing down after February. The speedy recovery to return to normal still might take months in reality . BUT Newsom seems to have just given up . He now wants to reopen the state that he helped crash , besides reopening schools , business , the covid virus is still spiking , or declining or what ever , as long as you believe the whole propaganda . The states Covid numbers don't add up any way , even if you follow the color coded tiers.They constantly roll them back after numbers go up. Remember too that Since March Gov. Newsom has kept the whole state of California in  limbo . His latest "opening up" might be a sign of desperation .