The Improbable Impeachment of Donald Trump.

For all those { Like US} just waiting to hear about any news that (1)>>Donald Trump got impeached , it may have to take a back seat for a while .  The next four years will be an extreme test of our constitutional system. Will it survive? Will WE survive ? Let’s use Madison’s framework to assess its prospects: “The great security against a gradual concentration of the several powers in the same department,” he wrote in The Federalist Papers, “consists in giving to those who administer each department the necessary constitutional means and personal motives to resist encroachments of the others.” The odds of Donald Trump becoming the third US president to be impeached have been cut after Michael Flynn agreed to cooperate with the FBI's investigation into his campaign's link's with Russia.  In Flynn’s plea, he reportedly said that Trump transition officials directed his contacts with the Russians, bringing the president closer into Mueller’s crosshairs than ever before REGARDLESS ,December 7th - The vote was forced by Rep. Al Green (D-Texas), who introduced articles of impeachment describing Trump as a bigot who incites hate and has demeaned the presidency. "Donald John Trump, by causing such harm to the society of the United States is unfit to be president and warrants impeachment, trial and removal from office," Green said on the House floor as he introduced the articles.  (2)>Honestly I think the investigation is going in "circles" , its nothing but a ruse . BUT Could Trump REALLY get Impeached ? In theory yes. He could technically be accused of violations of his oath of office to "preserve, protect, and defend" the US constitution, according to the writers of Lawfare Blog.  (3)>>REMEMBER its the Democrats that are drawing up articles of impeachment against Trump. Republicans are bracing for the possibility that Democrats take back the House in 2018—and Democrats, after a year in the wilderness, are beginning to seriously debate the political ramifications of impeaching Donald Trump if they do. For months, the Democratic base has been agitating for leadership to take more aggressive steps to censure the president. Until now, the idea of impeaching Trump has taken a backseat to more prosaic concerns. But if Democrats take back the House, that conversation will quickly enter the mainstream—as will the attendant political risks. Several Democrats also noted that it makes little sense to pursue impeachment without Republican buy-in because the process would then surely be stopped cold in the Senate. The House requires a simple majority vote to impeach a president, but removal from office requires a two-thirds vote after a trial in the Senate — a threshold that Democrats are certain to be well short of in the next Congress.

Evidence for Impeachment ?

There is a lot problems to "impeaching" Trump . The greatest part of the "evidence" is his Russian connections . Donald Trump can't escape the fact that before he was President he had many business dealings with Russia . However on that , there is no REAL evidence contrary to what we have been blasted with here in America that Russia some how took control of the voting machines , helped Trump get elected . The problem with the investigation is that it was started without any proof of collusion and it is still going on

without any proof of collusion while FBI agents.   EVEN if this could be true , such evidence has serious implications . (4)>>The word "collusion" just will not be applied to Trump alone , but it could like a domino effect hit the entire Republican party . A Careful analysis shows that if any one helped Donald Trump , benefited from his election was the Republican party  ALONG . Just think if the Russian meddling were TRUE . The Money trail could be traced to Moscow , some how found its way into the GOP last year ??? . Implications do exist. I think many in the Republican party are worried , they don't want to go down along with Trump .  VP Mike Pence is one of them , here  is { SPECULATION ON MY PART} sweating , perhaps having a hard time dealing with Trumps candor . I SUSPECT that there is much more to VP Mike Pence , I believe that who ever put together Trump's cabinet may have picked Pence to be his running mate during the campaign last year . There is a whole line of evidence that the GOP planned to have Trump on the ticked as early as 2014 as their candidate , { as it worked} that Trump won his party nomination . If we take "rigging" the election . The GOP was RIGGED like the DNC as well , but much worse . The (5)>>Republicans have developed a theory of alt-collusion, centering on elements of these same facts. Their version of the story uses Steele’s research in Russia as evidence that Steele is a tool of the Russian government. Steele’s report, charges the The Wall Street Journaleditorial page, is “based largely on anonymous, Kremlin-connected sources.” Ergo, “Strip out the middlemen, and it appears that Democrats paid for Russians to compile wild allegations about a U.S. presidential candidate. Did someone say ‘collusion’?” Former Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer has circulated the same bizarre theory.

The "impeachment" of President Trump.

2018 -2019 . (6)>>In a scenario Donald Trump is "impeached" . If Trump is forced

A  lot of investors took
a bet on Trump as this
tweet shows .
Its kiddish to say
it will last till 2020 . 

to resign in the next four years then Vice President Mike Pence will take his place in the Oval Office. In contrast to Trump’s maverick behavior and posturing as a Washington outsider, Pence has strong party links and is regarded by many Republicans as a safe pair of hands. Ultimately, this could count against Trump if Mueller finds solid evidence of treason.  “If Pence were to become president for any reason, the government would be run by the Koch brothers — period,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) told Jane Mayer of The New Yorker. “He’s been their tool for years.”  I can just see the (7)>>Stock Market crashing if we hear of impeachment  . I don't see Trump going out in a whimper , but like a BANG. Talk of impeachment is a reminder that strategies for weathering any market volatility, politically induced or not, are an important part of portfolio management.An event like that is bound to affect the stock market.   According to a note from the world’s biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater,as seen by Business Insider. Bridgewater’s Greg Jensen and Jason Rotenberg wrote that if President Trump is indeed impeached, U.S. equities will dive into correction territory with an 11% drop, while gold prices will push upward by 14%. Those estimates would wipe $2.3 trillion off the S&P 500 based on Thursday’s close, and completely wipe out the “Trump rally” — leaving roughly $18.8 trillion in the S&P 500. Additionally, European and Japanese equities would also be in for a fall of 12% and 16%, respectively. 2019 looks to me like a New Recession is coming , while the TOP will not feel anything because of the "cleverly crafted" Trump tax regulations of 2017 , the trickle down shock wave could hit millions of Americans down.  (8)>>The stock market DOW is over 20,000 , nudging higher . Its on a collision course with the outcome of the "investigations"  . 

The real "outlook".

I don't want to send anyone into a panic , but its NOT  likely that we going to get anything near a Nixon resignation .  Mueller is NOT a OUTSIDER who is conducting hearings , he nothing but a stooge , he worked with Trump just like Flynn . The "insiders" like Pence used info from hacked DNC emails in campaign materials before it was leaked. He is in it up to his ears as well. THis is public knowledge. McConnell, Ryan, Nunes, all of em. Currently there is at least 1 RICO grand Jury in New York handing down sealed docs. Question how much of it is nothing but a run-a -round , it looks like a  investigation ,  its just good  propaganda for the news media , so they think some real investigation is going on ,  IN REALITY (9)>>but nothing is , except paper is being pushed .

NOTES AND COMMENTS:

(1)>>Donald Trump got impeached . The aim for those bringing charges when someone is impeached is the accused's eventual removal from office - whether they be president of the US, or an official. The US constitution states a president "shall be removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes or "misdemeanours". Exactly what "high crimes and misdemeanours" covers is up for debate.    (2)>Honestly I think the investigation is going in "circles" , its nothing but a ruse .  Trump will be crazy and offensive and lying and grifting on behalf of himself and his children and people will figure out that you can't trust Trump and the republicans with either domestic or foreign policy. the media will cover the "Trump reality show" 24/7 - there won't be that much positive news to report, Trump will be crazy and offensive and lying and grifting on behalf of himself. Impeachment has nothing to do with mueller. Trump is violating emoluments clause. Trump is on tape saying he fired comey to stop Russia investigations.  (3)>>REMEMBER its the Democrats that are drawing up articles of impeachment against Trump . Democratic Rep. Debbie Dingell (Mich.) on Wednesday said lawmakers should seek more information before pushing for President Trump's impeachment."We need to make sure that we are going in a very detailed, thorough way of getting all of the facts that we need before you ever start down that kind of path," Dingell said on Fox News's "Special Report.""I think that for everybody, this election is going to be about the economy. And I think the reality is Democrats are going to have a message that's going to deliver," she added.(4)>>The word "collusion". As the Russians pushed out the stolen materials, Mr. Trump and his surrogates touted the hacked emails on a daily basis. Mr. Trump even publicly urged the Russians to further hack and disseminate his opponent’s emails.After the election, when the Russians were caught and subjected to sanctions by the U.S. for this unprecedented attack on our sovereignty, the president-elect’s designated White House national security adviser, Mike Flynn —with the knowledge of other high ranking transition officials—conspired secretly with the Russian ambassador to undermine the effect of the sanctions.Each of these contacts between the Russians, the Trump campaign, and the transition is now uncontested, yet time and again, the president’s team, and in some cases the president himself, had lied about them. To claim that these facts show no evidence of collusion requires a willingness to avoid seeing what is in plain sight, or to credit the self-serving explanations of the same Trump officials who misled the country about these same meetings. (5)>>Republicans have developed a theory of alt-collusion. That is apparently what President Trump is doing with the word “collusion.” Say it often enough, and perhaps it will lose all meaning.That’s just one of the things that comes through in this bizarre and disturbing interview Trump conducted at the Trump International Golf Club with Michael Schmidt of the New York Times, apparently on the spur of the moment and with no aides there to protect him. As we’ve almost come to expect by now, when Trump speaks at length without a script, he skitters back and forth along the line that divides the comical from the terrifying, telling one obvious lie after another, making endless digressions that devolve into incomprehensible word salad, and generally sounding like someone with only the most tenuous grip on his faculties.(6)>>In a scenario Donald Trump is "impeached" . This is the worst news Trump has received during his tenure so far, and it revives the prospect of a constitutional crisis that could involve Trump firing special prosecutor Robert Mueller. If that happens, it would be the gravest political scandal since Watergate in the early 1970s, with pressure mounting on Congress to impeach and convict the president. And if that actually happened, Vice President Mike Pence would replace Trump, becoming the 46th president of the United States. (7)>>Stock Market crashing .  President & Billionaire , Donald J Trump is so interwoven with the Stock Market, for the upscale Republican hawks he's their investment .  If Trump is impeached and convicted, there could be sector-specific ramifications, An impeachment would likely weaken the Republicans in the next round of congressional and presidential elections, he says. And that could harm Trump's efforts to roll back bank regulations, boding poorly for financial sector stocks. It will hurt a lot , I think that is why the Republicans at Washington D.C. are sticking with the Trump status quo , not as much out fear , but the whole nation could convulse .  (8)>>The stock market DOW is over 20,000. Constitutional crises are never good for the stock market. During the Watergate scandal, when Cox was fired and then-Attorney General Elliot Richardson resigned in protest — the S&P 500 fell 14% from October 1st through November. But investors shouldn’t jump to conclusions. Nixon’s so-called Saturday Night Massacre took place while Wall Street was already mired in one of the worst bear markets in history. From January 1973 through August 1974 — a period that includes the conviction of the Watergate burglars, Nixon’s resignation, global oil shock, Middle East turmoil, and a dramatic spike in inflation — stocks lost 42% of their value. (9)>>but nothing is , except paper is being pushed . Mueller crosses the red line by not focusing on Russian hacking for which only he was appointed. Even a fool knows that Flynn's meeting with the Russian ambassador does not reveal Russian hacking or collaboration, for the meeting took place after the November 8 general election. Mueller was appointed to investigate Russian hacking of American election which led to Trump's victory, but he is diverting from the main issue to prolong his tenure. . Michael Flynn met the Russian ambassador only in December after Trump had already been elected. How could this meeting with the ambassador, which is a normal diplomatic procedure for any incoming National Security Advisor, is a proof for Russian collusion when Americans had already elected Trump without any coercion or brainwashing by the Russians? Even if Trump has asked him to meet the ambassador, there is nothing wrong because as president-elect, he has to formulate new policies.His election agenda was to reset Russian relationship. What is more, voting and counting equipments in all states were not plugged in internet and there was absolutely no possibility of cyber attack by the Russians to increase the number of votes for Trump. Mueller has not proved till now any solid evidence of Russians hacking American election. Manafort, Gates, Flynn etc are roped in just to fool the people as if Mueller has discovered the cause for Trump's victory on November 8, 2016. The whole world is laughing at this clownish investigation.